In September 2025 Russia and Belarus plan to carry out large-scale military maneuvers under code name Fall 2025. At least 100,000 soldiers are expected to appear in the Belarusian camps. The scale of the exercises and their location rise concern among the neighbours – especially in Ukraine. president Volodymyr Zelenski warns that exercises can be utilized as a smokescreen for the attack – as it was in 2022.
In the past, the russian Union, followed by the Russian Federation, repeatedly utilized military exercises to hide preparations for invasion. The alleged "mask" – i.e. misinformation and operational camouflage – was a central component of the russian doctrine. An example is Operation Dunaj from 1968, erstwhile after a series of maneuvers the Warsaw Pact troops entered Czechoslovakia, suppressing the Prague Spring.
It was akin in 1979 during Operation Storm-333, erstwhile the USSR undercoverly deployed its forces to Afghanistan. besides maneuvers Soyuz-81 and Zapad-81, conducted in Poland during the increasing crisis around Solidarity, were part of the intellectual force and preparation of the ground for possible intervention. At the time, Moscow was besides considering the script of a force solution.
Modern echo of old tactics
In the 21st century, Russia continues this strategy. Exercises Caucasus 2008 erstwhile prelude to the attack on Georgia, and Fall 2021 – the largest military manoeuvres in Europe in decades – straight preceded a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Then Russia and Belarus gathered together about 200,000 soldiers, investigating combat capabilities and logistics in almost war conditions.
A year later, in February 2022, Russia hit Ukraine. The main attack was to start from the north – from the territory of Belarus and Russian brian and Kursk circuits. The goal was to rapidly offensive Kiev and overthrow Ukrainian authorities.
Blitzkrieg Failed
As part of this operation, Russia brought together about 60–70 1000 soldiers, supported by hundreds of tanks and thousands of combat vehicles. The attack was attended by elite units – among others, the 1st defender of the Armored Army and landing divisions. Their goal was to rapidly master Hostomelu Airport, which was to service as a key supply point.
However, the offensive failed. The Ukrainian defence effectively halted the advancement of the Russians, and the disastrous logistics organization and mistake in command caused Putin's army column to be stuck 60 kilometres from Kiev. Attempts to bypass the city from the west broke down and Russia suffered dense losses.
After six weeks of fierce fighting, the Russians withdrew from the northern regions of Ukraine, leaving behind destroyed equipment, civilian graves and traces of violent warfare. It was 1 of Moscow's top disasters at the start of the war.
New maneuvers – old threat?
Today Russia refocuses troops and equipment in western military districts and in the territory of Belarus. It is officially about joint exercises of Zapad 2025, the aim of which is to test defence capacity against threats from the western direction. Unofficially – this could be preparation for another offensive. any experts believe that Russia checks logistics routes and military mobility, creating an illusion of regular training.
Zelenski doesn't hide his fears. During the summit of the Trimorz Initiative in Warsaw, he warned that Russia could prepare an offensive under cover of exercises in Belarus. Earlier, at the Munich safety Conference, he mentioned the possible deployment of as many as 150 000 Russian soldiers in the country.
Kiev as a possible target
Although a direct attack on Poland or the Baltic States is considered unlikely, a return to the script of 2022 – another effort to conquer Kiev – is not excluded. This time, however, Ukraine is much better prepared. Along the border with Belarus, an extended defensive line was created, and reconnaissance systems and anti-aircraft defence were importantly reinforced.
However, the Russian strategy is based on surprise, escalation and action against the expectations of the opponent. Therefore, any movement of troops should be observed carefully – with distance, but besides with awareness of history. Moscow has proved many times that it can wage war under a mantle of exercises. A "mask" is simply a well-known and repeatedly utilized scenario.
