However, in the Sejm. Confederate Members will form a right wing [analysis]

analizypolityczne.pl 5 years ago

These names in the fresh parliamentary word will repeatedly attract the attention of the main media and voters. The Confederate electoral committee collects more than 1.2 million votes and introduces 11 Members to the Sejm. It is interesting to divide ideas in this group, due to the fact that Confederate Members are freedomists, conservative liberals, conservatives and nationalists.

Although the recently elected representatives of the Confederate in the Sejm will deficiency known names specified as Sławomir Mentzen (Vice Vice-President of the KORWIN Party), or Witold Tumanowicz (initiator and longtime head of the March of Independence), this faction looks truly interesting. These are the names of the Confederate Members:

Krzysztof Bosak (RN)

Mr Sosnier (KORWIN)

Artur Dziambor (KORWIN)

Michał Urbaniak (RN)

Robert Winnicki (RN)

Grzegorz Braun (KORONA)

Janusz Korwin-Mikke (KORWIN)

Konrad Berkovich (KORWIN)

Krystian Kamiński (RN)

Jakub Kulesza (KORWIN)

Krzysztof Tuduj (RN)

We so have 5 Members representing the National Movement within the Confederation, 5 Members from the National Movement organization (including those returning after 26 years to the Parliament of the president of that party) and Grzegorz Braun, who now establish his own group under the name Confederation of the Polish Crown. On Monday's tv programme WRealu24, Janusz Korwin-Mikke announced that 1 of the policy options under consideration would be the establishment of 2 separate parliamentary groups in the Parliament, with a joint word "Confederation". Although this organization solution offers many advantages (although it is possible for the representatives of the Confederation to talk twice in all parliamentary debate), it cannot neglect to see that it creates negative emotions in part of the electorate.

Why so good a Confederate consequence in the 2019 parliamentary elections? This list effectively gathered the erstwhile and mobilised fresh organization supporters to vote CORVIN, National Movement and Grzegorz Braun. These voters in 2015 (parties JKM and G. Braun) accounted for a full of 740 1000 votes, with attendance in the full election of 50.92%. In addition, the Confederate later took over any of the votes of nationalist voters, who in 2015 supported the Kukiz 15 committee. Erosion of support for the second followed Parallelly to subsequent secessions and weaknesses of the MP's club Paweł Kukiz from 2016 to 2019. It can be estimated that this transition of the electorate to the Confederate took place in relation to a maximum of 10% of the votes of the 2015 list of Kukiz 15, or about 133 1000 votes. However, the fact that electorates do not simply add up, political scientists and sociologists have known for a long time. Therefore, it cannot be amazing that in May 2019 in the elections to the European Parliament the Confederation obtained a completely different consequence than the 1 resulting from the simple calculation, due to the fact that only 621,000 votes. This took place at a full turnout of 45.68% and at the same time at a very weakening Kukiz 15, which gathered half a million voters.

This time, however, the consequence of the nationwide Confederation Committee is 1,257 1000 votes (official election results of October 15, 2019), with attendance of 61.74%. So the May consequence was doubled! As demographic data from the exit polls of the Ipsos centre show, it is not the first time that the largest group of voters by Janusz Korwin-Mikke turned out to be people aged 18-29. A large group of 18-21-year-olds, who had no voting rights 4 years ago, and seemingly did not care about the EP elections in May, went to the elections. At the same time, which was a hallmark of the parties created by JKM, this time there was no crucial outflow of voters in the higher age groups.

Dr. Paul Momro

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