- We're falling. The Marshal of the Sejm found himself on a political slope equal to that which would lead to a complete collapse in subsequent parliamentary elections, if he appeared in them under the banner of Poland 2050 – says Prof. Marek Bankowicz, Head of the Department of Contemporary Political Systems and organization Institute of Political Sciences and global Relations of the Jagiellonian University.
There's 2 more years until the election, but he doesn't think anything's gonna change by then.
– I don't think there are any fresh elements that will rise Marshal Holovnia and his group to decent political limits. There's no indication of that. He as him and his group has no chance of exceeding the 5% ceiling. If they run under their own name, it'll be political annihilation. They will vanish from parliament and all the structures of the state – he draws a silent scenario.
Another script sees this: – Marshal Holownia will be convinced that a complete disaster looks him in the eye and with a group of most trusted politicians he will effort to save himself. But there are fewer ways to save yourself.
“If Poland 2050 took the Modern road that entered the KO, it would give a chance for the political endurance of Szymon Holownia and a fistful of people working with it. The PSL maneuver is non-repeatable, it's come up. There are no another large possibilities. Poland 2050 on the list of Confederations? It's hard to imagine. Like the marshal on the PiS lists, she analyses the political scientist from the Jagiellonian University.
"Is this Simon Holown's political end?".
Some political scientists present are equally critical of Simon Holownia’s future.
"All he has left is to get on someone's electoral lists, or precisely repeat the way of Paul Kukiz. It is the function of the political satellite of 1 of the larger parties" - commented prof. UW Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist.
"This is simply a politician who wants to stay in politics at all costs, which is little and little likely to happen, and in my opinion he will shortly divide the destiny of Kukiz or Palikot. This will be the end of Simon Hołownia's adventure with politics, which is why he is primarily liable for himself" - said prof. Danuta Plecka, a politician from the University of Gdańsk in Fakta.
Social media besides has questions about the political end of Holown. any callback the words of Fr Jack Lemanski, who was spoken of by the clergy in 2020, in a conversation with Jacek Pałasiński in the Temat:
– I think Poland 2050 is specified an ephemeral that will disappoint us all in any time.
"I wouldn't regulation out any option." "Anything is possible."
But among experts we besides hear opinions that nothing is yet settled.
Dr. Sergius Trzegak, a political marketing expert and author of many books, believes that in politics anything is possible.
– I'm certain this is simply a very hard time for him. Politically it is simply a minute of weakness and from the outside, and from the inside where it is criticized. If things don't change, and if they continue, it's a political end. But I think there's inactive a chance. I would not regulation out any option – he says in Theme.
Dr. Patryk Wawrzyński, a political scientist, investigator of emotional communication and social influence from the University of Szczecin, besides comments: "Everything is possible. Polish politics know different stories. But as far as the future of Marshal Holownia is concerned, the first question is: will it keep unity within Poland 2050? due to the fact that present it's questionable.
What future do they see for Simon Holownia and his party? And what conditions would he gotta meet to survive?
Dr. Trzeczak: – In my opinion political transfers will take place faster than expected
– If support in the polls does not increase, the Polish 2050 environment may be disintegrated. It's already started. There is simply a movement on the part of any Members to prepare for Plan B in case support for Poland 2050 is so weak that they would not believe in their re-election. respective Members can so go to the KO and any may go to the Confederacy – says Dr. Sergius Trzegak.
On Tuesday, the MP Isabella Bodnar left Poland 2050.
Further part of the article below:
– In my opinion, political transfers will take place sooner than expected. And that is the biggest threat, due to the fact that if the MPs start moving distant from him, it will be a strong blow that will not origin growth in the polls," he adds.
This would be the biggest hazard for the Holown organization today. And the key issue around the question of what's next.
– This is why now Simon Hołownia must first of all convince its own structures that he is the leader who is able to fight for 6–7%. This is his chance – he comments.
The expert besides adds that Hołownia does not function in vacuum. And in Poland competitive environments are already beginning to emerge. He mentions Arkadius Musiu, president of Press Glass, who supports a quasi-political initiative representing liberal and freedom environments. And about Wadim Tyszkiewicz, who represents dissatisfied self-government environments and establishes a fresh party.
But here, as the political scientist points out, fight for it without structures. If Holownia wants to survive, then it must take on building them, driving around Poland and motivating people.
– We request to build the facilities in the form of friendly local governments. This is the blood circulation of this system. On this environment he built PSL, PO, PiS. all environment that has no self-government ends after 1-2 term, due to the fact that it fails to keep structures. This is the weak side of Poland 2050, that it has not yet built them," says Dr. Trzegak.
The fact that Poland 2050 does not be showed the last local elections. This is where we wrote about it last time.
– I think there's going to be a cannibalization of the Holnia electorate. partially through the KO and partially through the Confederation. all fresh organization initiative experienced this: KPN, Self-defense, Palikot Movement, Kukiz'15, or Modern. And the key was that no structures were built. If there are no structures, no money, no strategy, nothing will be built. Even if the effect of political decision is triggered, it cannot be maintained," the expert emphasizes.
In his opinion, Holovnia should besides find whether it wants to enter the government or not. due to the fact that on the 1 hand, it has its ministers in it, and on the other, it criticizes the government.
- There's no consistency. He'd gotta make up his mind. You can't just sit around. It is hard to be organization leader and have their ministers in government without entering the government. This is his biggest dilemma today. The key is whether he can build a strategy so that Members and another structures believe him – he believes.
Dr. Wawrzyński: – The top risk, whether Holownia will not repeat the destiny of Petru
Dr. Patryk Wawrzyński sees even specified a script that Poland 2050 exists further, but has a completely different leader.
– The question is, will the support for Holownia not fall apart inside his own club. And if after tense movements, like the suspension of MP Zimoch, the marshal will defend himself inside his environment. If so, I think what we have now will be just 1 of the crises that will undermine assurance and weaken its position within the coalition. But I don't think he'll miss his political career – he comments on the subject.
She's paying attention to something else.
– The biggest hazard for Simon Holowna is not to repeat the destiny of his clubmate, Richard Petru. So that after the success of the organization do not lose it and do not fall very hard into the margin, waiting later for his second chance – he points out.
Recall, during 1 of the modern conventions, Catherine Lubnauer was the head of the convention.
– From the point of view of Polish policy, the Polish 2050 task seems to me to be inactive very much needed. Moreover, a year and a half of government has caused the appearance of figures from this environment, which are recognisable adequate to proceed without Simon Holovnia," says the expert.
He admits that he would see a real alternate to Holownia's leadership in Poland 2050.
In general, present he believes that the full marketing thought of this group is not working.
– Poland 2050 needs a strong turn towards a real counter-polarization, not gathering with leaders of another parties after night. Or as a software alternate to PO. Therefore, in 2020, residents of metropolitan areas and large cities voted for Holovnia and this organization gained much support there. Is it adequate for those who make it to have the strength and determination to vote in 2027 to put everything on the same page? – questions a political scientist.
Prof. Bankowicz: – He is in both government and opposition, which means he does not respond to anyone
Here we go back to the beginnings of Poland 2050. Until Simon Holovnia was very enthusiastic and attracted quite a few people to him. What went incorrect with people asking these questions today?
– With dynamism, he entered the political stage. However, a very inept policy and any kind of political dissipation has rapidly spread a advanced starting ceiling. And what the marshal is doing right now, these are all desperate moves. It's a conflict to last without a bigger plan. With the usage of a political strategy so far, which has not produced a result, and which is the origin of the failure, prof. Marek Bankowicz evaluates.
He admits that this is simply a large surprise to him.
– The marshal seemed to have various assets in his hand. In October 2023, he had a good election consequence and it seemed to be an excellent starting point for building a political position. Additionally, his individual strengths came to light – he presented himself well in the media, excellent rhetorically, superior to rivals in various debates and clashes. But for any reason it turned out that it did not work, says the political scientist.
Huge problems, as he recalls, began erstwhile he and the 3rd Way entered the ruling coalition.
Mr. Marshal doesn't know why he started doing political dialectics. I mean, he's in both government and opposition, which means he doesn't answer anyone. In a political sense, he lost his chance,” says Prof. Bankowicz.
On the another hand, as he says, in the long run, the individual charm and charm of Holowna no longer worked.
"His individual spell rapidly wore out. He no longer acted on the presidential election and he no longer acts"
We all remember the beginnings of Simon Holown as the talker of the Sejm. erstwhile the cinema rooms filled up due to the fact that people together wanted to watch his performances.
– It was an different marshal. Very good starter, humorous. He was well-oriented in parliamentary procedures even though it was his first word and that he had no legal experience. His launch as talker of the Sejm was from a advanced ceiling. It was a individual spell, not embedded on political foundations that proved to be very fragile. He had no strategy what to do. It caused his individual spell to wear out quickly. He no longer acted at the presidential election and he no longer acts," says Prof. Bankowicz.
Among the mistakes that Holovnia has made are besides the deficiency of organization structures, as we have already mentioned.
– It is impossible to build a political organization in today's realities on the popularity of 1 individual and this individual is not active in organization organizational work. The marshal gave up organizational-party activities at the base. There is absolutely no activity in the field – he points.
He besides harshly evaluates his fresh actions, which caused a political storm in Poland.
– The Flirt from the PiS shows the further ramblings of your marshal on his favourite road: "I am in government but simultaneously in opposition". On the another hand, there is not adequate courage to make a extremist political return, retreat from the government and bet on cooperation with the Law and Justice. On the another hand, authority and trust in him in the governing coalition has been so tempted that it is hard to anticipate him to play a greater function in this political environment," he says.
In his opinion, if the Holovnia is convinced that it is lethal for him to participate in the ruling coalition, he should retreat from it.
– Action that takes is action without drawing conclusions. It's like he didn't figure out what caused his political weakness. So being in government and opposition at the same time – says Prof. Bankowicz.
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