The first weeks of the fresh word of president Donald Trump's "unorthodox" have clearly put Europe and its leaders in a serious dilemma. It makes us ask even cardinal questions: what is next with Ukraine and even the European Union (EU) as an integration project? Remaining in an alliance with America, inactive the strongest organism on the globe, of course – but under what conditions? That's another key question.
We're at a strategical crossroads. After more than 3 decades of strategical naps, Europe must wake up, redefine, find itself in fresh conditions. For the years of carelessness have evidently ended. First of all, we closed down crucial sources of our energy supply, which is simply a inexpensive Russian market. And now Trump threatens us with a photograph of a very comfortable safety umbrella. It is no longer certain that the Americans will not only proceed to defend us, but even that they will not get out of here at all.
Mars and Venus
Throughout Europe, it flourished, flourished, enriched, and gained blushes like a doughnut in butter. Today, however, in the light of Trump's extraordinary challenges and his full crew, it has become apparent that, yes, the EU and the full continent stay rich, but they are in fact defenceless. A powerfully drawn American reset in relations with Russia and resumed during Trump's first tenure a great-power game (hard power) threatens again, like in the 19th century, with a performance of powers.
In the meantime, the EU is simply a normative power and, at most, commercial power, without any hard force. Robert Kagan's thesis from the very beginning of this century was confirmed erstwhile he clearly separated both sides of the Atlantic Ocean in an insightful essay “Power and Paradise”. He argued that “Americans are from Mars” due to the fact that they put (naked) strength (power), Because, as he wrote, “the planet is divided into good and bad, friends and enemies... Americans like to usage coercion than persuasion, a policy of sanctions alternatively than incentives to change proceedings, a stick than a carrot." As we can see on the palm of our hand this approach is in Trump.
In the meantime, Europeans are from Venus due to the fact that they focus on diplomacy, persuasion, standards and agreements. In another words, utilizing external umbrellas, American safety, Russian natural materials, and besides sources of supply of goods from China, we became rich but unfortunately vulnerable. And now, as such, we all in Europe, as well as our ruling elites, have faced existential challenges in fact. In order to defend ourselves and our own interests – individually and collectively – we must profoundly overestimate our behaviors and mechanisms governing us for over 3 decades. For again, as before, America is the catalyst.
Then, as a consequence of the large triumph of the West and its values, as Francis Fukuyama defined by the loud but erroneous notion of “the end of history”, we saw no alternate to Western dominance in virtually all dimension. due to the fact that immediately after the dissolution of the USSR and after the collapse of the two-polar (cold-war) order and implosion of 1 of the poles (the effects of which we inactive feel, in the areas of Ukraine and not only that) emerged someway only – and unprecedented in scale, scope and power – superpower, USA. She appeared on the global stage, rather short-lived as it turned out, as he observed in another insightful work of the “Big Chessboard” Zbigniew Brzeziński, the alleged one-pole moment, full of American dominance on the globe.
Two US Packages
It was then that the U.S. dictated to us, the post-communist world, but besides the 1 born then (the Maastricht Treaty) on the European integration way of the EU 2 packages. The first, economic, neoliberal of spirit and letters, i.e. based almost exclusively on the market, with the function of the state in the economy limited to a minimum, gained the name of a "consensus from Washington" by malicious, specified as Joseph Stiglitz, or Branko Milanovic, called "market foundationalism".
an American perfect and program dictatorship, cleverly described by Margaret Thatcher as TINA (There Is No Alternative) that “there is no alternate for him” was not even opposed by the Russian Federation Boris Jelcin, and the perch faced the inalternativeness of “the end of history” only by China – with an already known effect today.
On the another hand, then emerging on the global phase of the EU in June 1993, it codified American requirements as the alleged Copenhagen criteria, since then constituting its cognitive and axiological foundation. It consisted of: Liberal democracy (meaning the American pedigree strategy of balance and control of authorities – checks and balances), the state of law, the marketplace economy (read ‘the Washington Consensus’) and the rights of minorities, nevertheless they were understood (not yet in the dictionary, present popular, concept of LGBTQ). These were at the same time the basic criteria for the admission of fresh members, comprising at the same time 1 of the alternatively common definitions of the EU, understood as a "community of values", specified as those mentioned above.
The Washington Consensus was mostly undermined as a consequence of the major financial and economical crisis of 2008-10, which in the EU was then named Grexit (i.e. the threat of the exclusion of Greece from the euro area and even the EU), and the parallel formulas of PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain), i.e. the debt crisis of the Mediterranean states (with which France has besides suffered to a large extent). Neoliberalism brought with it, contrary to the announcements, growth, not a decline in inequality, but besides fresh divisions, within and between countries. However, the Copenhagen criteria have not been changed – and are inactive valid today. And that's what's starting to bounce.
Conservative Revolution
For today, Donald Trump hits all the remaining azimuts of an ultraliberal package. Yes, it leaves marketplace laws focused around it to large conglomerates – large Techom, but at the same time in relation to the outside planet it threatens or straight imposes additional duties, tariffs and barriers, it focuses on isolationism and protectionism. On the another hand, it hits the interests of its largest trading partners – Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, with which the US has the largest negative trade balance. In terms of the EU, this is alternatively before the start of this game, due to the fact that it is crucial to have elections – just completed – in Germany and then in France (cannot be held before June this year, due to the ordination in force there). This game is clearly ahead of us.
Trump is waiting to see who wins in Europe, but besides by themselves and by the mouths of others – whether Elona Muska at home or Viktor Orbán on our continent – hits Brussels and its values. He does not dress up in words about the so-far dominant liberal elites, and even hired billionaire Elon Musk for the black job, or cleaning the so-called. Deep state, so existing structures, institutions and people filling them. The case is highly serious, even if all CIA employees have received 8-month notices to choose a fresh strategy or to leave.
The governments of Orbán, Fico or the influence of the Freedom organization in Austria, as well as the successes of the AfD or the Fox organization in Spain prove that it is not 1 country or even 1 region – it is simply a much deeper and wider anti-liberal wave. Let's hope there is no repeat of History, as with the (excessive) liberalism after the fall of the USSR, which the Polish, now deceased sociologist Jerzy Szacki correctly defined as "communism on the populace", or à rebours.
May only liberalism, treated increasingly – as Trump and his faithful acolytes are inactive excited – as an “antidoctrine” do not fall into the snare of excessive utmost nationalism, as the shuttle in many countries leans dangerously in this direction. For besides in Europe, following Trump, the temptation to take everything by the mouth is increasingly visible and felt – and introduce antiliberalism.
Woe to us that specified a worldview or a way of thinking, already known to us from History, will begin to dominate again. That's the stakes we're playing for now. It is besides worth keeping in head the words of the penetrating Krakow thinker Bronisław Łagowski: “political liberalism is useless in situations of large crises, tensions, anarchy, and especially in the eve of the civilian war.” And since present it is not peaceful in Europe, which Trump's "phenomenon" is inactive fueling, it is not essential to convince anyone.
Safety, fool.
Neoliberalism in the economy, and full political and axiological liberalism, was in fact a non-alternative, i.e. dogmatic, focused on values specified as the marketplace (without borders), the private sector, profit or growth, without taking into account another areas of human activity at all. He opened markets—and minds—to the ground, he did not apply barriers and inhibitions, which is now taking revenge.
An anti-globalization, nationalist, conservative wave came to the vote, rejecting programally – in America but besides in a large part of European electorates – excess freedom, respect and knowing for others (views, creeds, or races) in exchange for this by repossessing migrants, putting up walls, dams and barriers and defining many concepts re-or axioms (e.g. "marriage is simply a union between men and women"), and the fresh Holy Grail becomes a widely understood concept of security, from social to social.
In this respect, Europe is different from the US, providing a wide, besides wide-ranging network of social benefits. So the threats in her area are somewhat different from those in the United States. Yes, migrants are besides a increasing problem with us, but the main challenge is to change the rules of the game, which is to replace the existing mantra "economy, fool", a completely fresh one, which is "security, fool".
At the same time, it is understood widely, increasingly. In a planet of redominant force, as is the case with classical security, increased military possible and safeguarding borders, but at the same time, issues specified as food, energy, climate, cyber, or environmental safety are involved. This list seems to be increasing steadily, and it is inactive being driven forward by fast technological improvement (in which unfortunately Europe is falling behind, as I late wrote in the text "Chinese fresh Year fireworks").
Presumably, the most crucial test for Europe, its coherence, will be the further destiny of wars in Ukraine. For Ukraine is not an isolated case, but surely a substance of the full fresh safety structure on our continent. We already know that the spell repeated like a mantra, according to which there should be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine, as a consequence of Trump's actions and his administration from day to day became worthless.
Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin authorities were given hope. Not only in Kiev is the wind of sinister change. And Europeans, divided, fragmented, and even quarreled with each other, are inactive on the sidelines, incapable to find a common language. This is not a good omen for the future. Who's gonna get us out of this infirmity spell? present only questions are asked, and the answer is not answered. but for 1 record: past has returned and is writing fresh cards in front of us again.
