A full-scale war between Iran and Israel is unfortunately real. Although no of the parties want it, the harsh rhetoric and demonstrations of the strength of each of them bring temporary benefits – emphasized prof. Radosław Fiedler, a political scientist, the Head of the Department of Non-European Political Studies from Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań.
Chiam village in confederate Lebanon after Israeli air strike, 03.10.2024.
Are we on the eve of a full-scale war in the mediate East?
Prof. Radosław Fiedler: This script is unfortunately real. any consolation is that so far Israel and Iran are likely to stay in touch, exchange information, with the word: they have any form of dialogue. Of course, not directly, most likely through another countries or global institutions, but nevertheless... Just look at the last attack in Israeli territory. Iran launched 180 missiles. The missiles did not origin major losses, most were knocked down by advanced anti-aircraft systems. It is hard to defy the impression that the scale of impact could have been much higher, and the attack itself had the characteristics of a military-political demonstration. Israel was prejudiced about him. But the problem is that it happened, I believe, at the last minute. Now there is the question of Israel's answer, which will be beyond doubt. If Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu decides to hit Iran's atomic installations, the situation may get out of control. However, specified a strike would be crossing the red line outlined by the US. The representatives of president Joe Biden's administration clearly indicate this...
Except Iran's already crossed the red line. In a fewer months, he attacked Israel twice not with his subordinate militias, but with rockets fired straight from his territory. This has never happened before.
That's right, conflict escalates. However, we are inactive dealing with calibrated actions. Look at this. what is happening in Lebanon. Israel sent ground troops there, but did not decide to make a major invasion. The objectives of the operation stay limited. The aim is to guarantee that 60,000 people who have been evacuated from a sharp region can safely return to their homes in the north of Israel. Iran is inactive doing the same. Hezbollah leaders were killed in the Israeli operation, so the Ayatollahs had to react. If they hadn't, they'd have hit their credibility. But both they and Netanjah know what an open war between their countries could lead to. The conflict would exhaust both countries, and it could easy spill beyond the mediate East. The problem is that acute rhetoric and decisive action to any degree brings benefits both. Iran is in a multidimensional crisis. He struggles with advanced inflation, social discontent grows, and ruling ratings fall. In specified a situation, any effort to distract residents from interior problems can have a affirmative but immediate effect. The war given to Hamas and Hezbollah may besides strengthen the previously weakening position of Netanjah. But in this case, the profit will be temporary...
Is Israel taking a large hazard fighting 2 fronts? For the war in Gaza has not yet ended...
From a military point of view, Israel can afford this. He's a regional power. He has a strong army and efficient service. True, in October 2023, Israeli intelligence clearly fell asleep without predicting An unprecedented Hamas strike, however, he is presently doing a lot to improve his image. An example is the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a number of his associates. A twelve years ago, Israel conducted a large - scale operation against them, but it failed. It worked now. The Israelis have managed to install an agent in the immediate vicinity of Nasrallah, and this is simply a real feat. But the problem lies elsewhere. Israel eliminates enemies he knew. In the meantime, it can be assumed that next, more extremist ones will come. The communicative of the 1980s will be repeated erstwhile the Israeli army struck Lebanon to remove the Palestine Liberation Organization from there. The plan succeeded, only that Hezbollah – an organization based not only on political but besides spiritual motives – appeared in the place of OWP. For Israel, much more dangerous. In addition, that war destabilized Lebanon. present it is indeed a fallen state, in which many functions of government have just been taken over by Hezbollah. He runs his schools, hospitals, provides any of the residents with social assistance. Breaking down its structures in the long word will not benefit Israel much. He's going to turn on the hostility against him...
Tactically, Israel will surely win this confrontation, but will it besides win a strategical victory? That could be very difficult. but Netanjahu doesn't think about what's gonna happen in two, three, 4 years. Of course, the Prime Minister of Israel had to respond someway to Hamas' aggression and subsequent Hezbollah strikes. Especially as the doctrine of the state speaks of active defence, besides beyond the borders of the state. On the another hand, it is crucial to remember that having relations with neighbors is decades of hard diplomatic work. Just follow the issues of Polish-German reconciliation. Unfortunately, politicians forget all besides often.
What, then, will the mediate East bring?
The war will most likely take a long time. The question is whether she's going to be bloated, whether she's going to turn into an open conflict of regional powers. erstwhile again, this is not what either side wants, due to the fact that even the Ayatollahs who are accused of radicalism can calculate coolly and rationally. but the future is simply a large unknown. If a full-scale war in the region actually breaks out, the full planet will feel it. Oil prices will go off, causing immense economical turmoil. The Americans – as a close ally of Israel – will be forced to focus more on the mediate East, at a certain cost to Europe. In a word, we'll have a immense problem...
