Hot in the ice

Silk way in fresh version

The Greenland case one more time reminded the planet how crucial it was in the calculation of powers Arctic Ice. It all started back in the Cold War. Planners from the US and the USSR have seen that this area is the shortest link between the territories of both superpowers, and the advantage gained there may become the key to triumph in open conflict. So atomic submarines regularly appeared in the waters of the Far North, and further military installations were created in the ice - bound areas. It was at that time, among others, that the tiny village of Wajeng on the Kolski Peninsula was transformed into Siewieromorsk – the main base of the russian North Fleet. Then the Americans besides launched the Thule base in Greenland, later renamed Pituffik, which became a key component in the early atomic fire informing system. The collapse of the USSR made interest in the Arctic fall for a while. In fresh decades, however, it has revived with double strength.

Economic considerations have decided on this. fast climate change has made northern shipping routes more accessible for most of the year. In addition, the retreating landland awakened the hope of utilizing natural deposits. And as experts emphasize: The Arctic in this respect is an almost unbridled reservoir. Only Russia estimates that in the Far North it has 1 4th of national oil and 70% of gas resources.

– For Russians, the Arctic has existential significance. Without its natural materials and the Northern Maritime Road, which is 1 of the 2 arteries that merges a immense territory, the state could not function normally," emphasises Prof. Krzysztof Kubiak, a political scientist from Jan Kochanowski University in Kielce. But that is not the end. In fresh decades, imperial ambitions have revived in Russia, lined with anti-Western fears.

On the 1 hand, the Arctic began to be seen as soft underbelly – a place where the opponent could execute the first strike. – Not necessarily with ballistic missiles, but harder to detect maneuvering missiles – says Prof. Kubiak. On the another hand, the Kremlin felt that the Far North was 1 of the keys to rebuilding the erstwhile power. The more complicated and sometimes not clear legal position of this region is conducive to expansionary politics. An example? Like Svalbard. This strategically located archipelago under the 1920 Treaty remains under Norwegian control. However, Russia, like many another countries, has the right to exploit its deposits. The disputed areas in the Barents Sea were demarcated under the 2010 Russian-Norwegian agreement. Only recently, the Russians have started accusing Oslo of breaking findings, while at the same time taking hybrid action around the archipelago. Under the guise of technological research, they strengthen their presence in that area, while besides conducting disinformation campaigns. In 2025, the Norwegian media besides reported that during ‘Fault’ manoeuvres The Russians were practicing... a landing on Svalbard.

Such actions are part of a broader strategy. – Russia restores the russian military infrastructure and dual use, and builds fresh facilities. Talking about radar stations, runways or port installations – says Piotr Szymański, an analyst from the Center for east Studies. On this list there is simply a modern complex on the Land of Francis Joseph, where various types of aircraft can operate throughout the year, or the base of Tiksi on the Sea of Catches – a place of stationing, among others, anti-aircraft divisions. The Russians have deployed the Bastion-P rocket launchers in the Arctic, and are besides strengthening the naval forces operating there – especially the submarines. In July 2025, for example, the "Pozharsk" was introduced into service, the eighth of the Borej/ Borej A atomic ships, capable of carrying 16 intercontinental Bulawa missiles with atomic warheads. The importance of the Kremlin's presence in the Far North besides proves that in 2021 the North Fleet was elevated to the rank of military territory – the 5th in the Russian armed forces.

Russia, through investments in the Arctic, tries to check out NATO, but besides to spread control of the northeastern seaway, which provides it with convenient contact with China. These, in turn, already in 2018 declared themselves an arctic state, and this way was described as part of the “Pasa and Trail” initiative. “This is the shortest connection between a Chinese mill and a Western European consumer,” emphasises Prof. Kubiak. The road along the Russian coast is respective 1000 nautical miles shorter than the routes leading through the Suez Canal, Panama or around Africa. Moreover, regardless of the inactive hard weather conditions for China, it is simply a safer transition. Ships bypass vast waters where the American Navy has a strong influence. And, as experts point out, in a time of various political crises, it can be an asset. The northern way yet serves Chinese to import Russian natural materials. – Beijing, utilizing the war in Ukraine and the weakening position of Russia, slow takes over its assets in Siberia. 1 step at a time, she depends on herself. The Russians know this, of course, but do not have much chance to argue it, says Prof. Kubiak.

China is primarily utilizing economical tools to build its position in the Arctic, although... they are increasingly signaling that if essential they will besides be able to scope for military resources. In October 2024, the media covered the first joint Russian and Chinese Coast defender patrol in the Arctic Ocean. The squad operated in Russia's exclusive economical zone, approaching Alaska coasts for about 500 km. How about the West?

The Americans launched the Thule base in Greenland, then renamed Pituffik, which became a key component in the early informing system.

More NATO in NATO

NATO countries have never lost sight of the Arctic. The Americans, despite the end of the Cold War, maintained the mentioned Pitufik base in Greenland, as well as the Alaska Air Base. The monitoring of possible threats that may come from the Far North besides continues to be carried out by NORAD, the American-Canadian Defence Command of the North American Sky and Space. Due to its location, Norway has practically always had a look at Arctic regions, while in the North Atlantic, a permanent NATO squad regularly operated, guarding the strategical passage of GIUK, which extends between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom.

Yet at any point it became clear that Western activity in the Arctic region was insufficient. Experts point out that NATO has not developed a unified strategy related to the region, has not frequently demonstrated its presence there, has not been dynamically developing military infrastructure. – The case of American icebreakers has become a symbol of specified an approach. The Coast defender there has only 3 specified units, while the Russians have nearly 40 of them. It was only in 2025 that the Americans signed a contract with Finland, which will let to importantly increase their number," notes Dr Wojciech Kwiatkowski, an American student from Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University in Warsaw.

This agreement is just 1 example of how the Western approach to the Arctic has late begun to change. In consequence to the expanding activity of Russia and China, the Americans, for example, laid down an abandoned base in Keflavík and, along with another allies, began to train regularly the expansion of forces to Iceland. A fewer years ago, for example, a component was placed there. Marine Rocket Unit from Siemirovic. In 2008, Iceland was covered by the NATO Air Police Air Mission, and a series of global exercises were carried out in northern Norway to prepare soldiers to operate under hard winter conditions. The Natov subdivisions besides honed skills in Greenland. In September 2025, more than 600 soldiers from respective European countries took part in the code name “Artic Light”. The list of trainers included, among others, the crew of the frigate "Niels Juel", peculiar troops from Denmark or the French mountain infantry division.

Russia estimates that in the Far North it has 1 4th of national oil and 70% of gas. In the photo, a Russian mining platform.

And that's erstwhile the Americans launched a diplomatic bomb. Donald Trump, who had already announced at the beginning of his tenure that he would search to take over Greenland, demanded openly in early January that this territory be assigned to the US. He did not regulation out that in order to accomplish his goal, he could scope for the army. “If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will”, he explained.

Why specified a extremist attitude? I will admit that president Trump's arguments are hard to understand. After all, under an agreement that inactive signed the US and the Kingdom of Denmark in the 1950s, the Americans can de facto freely increase their military presence there," Szymanski points out. In addition, the United States has tools to bridge the economical influence of global rivals in this region. “This happened in 2018 erstwhile the Chinese company CCCC was the favourite in a tender for expansion of Greenland airports. Her choice was thwarted by the U.S. Department of Defense, which through Copenhagen had an effective emphasis on the authorities in Nuuk. The Americans feared for the safety of the radar station in Pitufik," Szymanski recalls. All the more reason to imagine a Russian or Chinese invasion of the island. Sounds like a discipline fiction movie script...

– Today, of course, neither China nor Russia have adequate possible for this. However, this does not mean that they cannot harm the Americans. Especially since the global situation remains very dynamic – Dr. Kwiatkowski believes. Greenland has long considered detaching from Denmark. If it actually affects independence, it can become more susceptible to Russian – and even more to Chinese – influences. And according to the expert, he fears Trump. “The US does not want China to do to them what they do to China in Southeast Asia. There, Americans have bases in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, they are besides present in Taiwan, by the word they haveheads in close proximity to Chinese territory. As far as the Western Hemisphere is concerned, Beijing was building influences in Venezuela, which Americans effectively cut, kidnapping Maduro. In the case of Greenland, they clearly like to be safe," says Dr. Kwiatkowski.

According to him, the threat of the American invasion of Greenland from the beginning was not real. But Trump inactive gained a lot. “There is an option on the table to make extraterritorial US bases. The Americans, without looking at anyone, will be able to make even bases of submarines operating in the Arctic or place elements of the Golden Dome rocket strategy there. For this they forced on another NATO members increased activity in this area of the planet – argued Dr. Kwiatkowski.

Indeed, at the end of January, the Secretary-General of the Alliance Mark Rutte announced in the European Parliament that fresh solutions were being developed on this issue. “NATO as a full will presume greater work for defending the Arctic,” he declared.

Hot Time, Cool Head

The question remains to what degree this will be an adequate consequence to the actual risks, and to what degree the effort to mitigate Trump. “The importance of the Arctic is growing, but I surely wouldn’t include it in the most inflamed areas of the world,” admits Prof. Kubiak. Reason? For example, it would be highly hard to conduct military activities in vast ice areas. Take care of logistics, decision quite a few soldiers, organize landings. The same is actual of natural resources. – Here we clearly gotta separate 2 things: resources and reserves. In another words: what lies underground, and what truly can and pays off – emphasises Prof. Dominik Kopiński, analyst of the Polish economical Institute. “The amount of valuable natural materials in Greenland is huge. Problem is, there's no infrastructure. In order to exploit the deposits, it is essential to build not only mines, but besides roads, airports, ports. To do so, supply the workforce. And it is crucial to remember that investments in the Arctic would be carried out under highly unfavourable climatic conditions, as the expert says. Conclusion: Most of them would most likely prove unprofitable.

The temperature around the Arctic has late increased importantly and in the coming decades the situation will most likely not change. However, drawing possible scenarios for this place in the world, no substance what, it is worth keeping your head cool.