"Global Inflammatory Point: How the War of the U.S. and Israel against Iran Could Lead to the Hunger of Millions Fertiliser shortages and advanced prices can lead to a breakdown of the fragile strategy that feeds the world."

grazynarebeca5.blogspot.com 1 month ago

Dockers unload fertilizer from a cargo ship in Lianyungang port, China, 27 February 2024. © Getty Images; CHOTO / Future Publishing

The war between the US and Israel and Iran led to the closure of fertilizer factories throughout the Persian Gulf and the blocking of shipping routes. The longer this goes on, the greater the hazard of a global food crisis.

For farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, the war came at the worst possible moment. Spring sowing period has begun, and request for fertilizers is high. Although rising fuel costs are the most apparent consequence of the war for consumers, fertiliser prices are besides rising and supply of their ingredients is decreasing.

How does war affect fertilizer supplies?

The ongoing conflict affects all phase of the fertiliser chain. To realize how this happens, it is crucial first to realize how modern fertilizers are produced. In the most common process, natural gas is mixed with nitrogen to get ammonia, which is then refined into urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonium urea nitrate (UAN), all of which are considered nitrogen fertilisers.

LAR nitrogen fertilizer bags based on ammonium nitrate found on a farm in Suffolk, UK © Getty Images

Farmers besides usage phosphorus and potassium fertilisers, but nitrogen fertilisers are the most popular and account for 59% of planet consumption. Without them, about half the world's food supply would be destroyed.

Due to its abundant natural gas resources, the Gulf region is simply a key place for ammonia production. Global fertiliser production is dominated by China, the United States, India and Russia, but Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar occupy ninth, tenth and eleventh place in terms of production volume, and about 1 3rd of the world's nitrogen fertilisers flow through the Strait of Ormuz.

The Strait has been de facto closed since the beginning of March, with 4 ships passing through it on 7 March, compared with an average of 129 in February, according to UN data.

As a result, these fertilisers cannot scope planet markets, resulting in higher prices. The price of urea is presently $594 per tonne, compared to $464 per February 27, the day before the outbreak of the war. Nitrogen fertilisers, specified as urea, are not the only agricultural products that evidence akin price increases. Sulphur place prices – a by-product of fossil fuels, which increases yields and protects plants from illness – increased by more than 20% in Chinese markets during the same period. The situation is aggravated by rising costs of marine fuel and insurance.

In addition to fertilizer production, Gulf States export the gas utilized in ammonia plants abroad. Indian urea producers have already limited production and are reportedly considering closing plants after Qatar has stopped all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, immediately removing 20% of global LNG exports from the market.

What's at stake?

Higher production costs translate into higher prices for consumers. The disruptions in the supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic and the earlier increase in fertiliser costs after the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 caused food prices in most European countries to emergence by 1 3rd compared to 2019, as reported by the European Central Bank.

As the EU abandons Russian gas to US and Qatar LNG, fertiliser producers in the EU besides restrict production. Polish state fertiliser producer, Grupa Azoty SA, temporarily stopped accepting fresh orders in early March, after gas prices in Europe increased by 50%. A fewer days later, the company resumed accepting orders at marketplace prices.

Fertiliser mill on the coast, on the edge of the desert in Umm Sai in Qatar © Getty Images; Bernard Gerard

However, the poorest countries in the planet will endure the most. In a study published on Tuesday, UN Trade and improvement warned that Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya and Mozambique were six of the 10 countries most dependent on fertilizers from the Gulf region. Gulf States supply 54% of the fertilizers utilized by Sudan and 36% by Sri Lanka.

Farmers in developing countries are frequently incapable to cope with rising production costs, and food shortages can rapidly become hungry.

Does anyone benefit from fertilizer shortages?

As with oil and gas, advanced prices benefit those who are able to produce and marketplace fertilisers. Russia is 1 of specified countries and together with Belarus is liable for 20% of global fertiliser exports. According to government statistics, fertiliser production in Russia increased by 3.5% in 2025, reaching a evidence level of 64.4 million tonnes.

Nevertheless, due to rising costs across the EU, Brussels imposed duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers with the aim of "weakening the Russian war economy".

In any respects, the failure of the EU has proven to be a profit for Russia. Russia redirected its exports to the BRICS countries, expanding fertilizer supplies to these countries by 60% between 2021 and 2024. With quite a few low-cost fertilizers going to Russian farmers, a fresh class of billionaires appears in the country.

Of the 14 fresh billionaires who joined Russia last year, 7 built fortunes in agriculture and food production, according to the Forbes planet Billionaire List of 2026. Among these food tycoons are Aleksandr Tkaczow, co-founder of Agrocomplex, 1 of the largest Russian food and agricultural producers, and Wadim Moszkowitz, who controls Rusagro, 1 of the largest Russian pork and sugar producers.

Billionaires Andrei Melnychenko and Dmitri Medazepine stay the pillars of the list, and their wealth has multiplied thanks to European request for fertilizers from their companies.

Does the United States have a plan to solve the crisis?

The Ormuz Strait will stay closed as long as the US and Iran are at war. According to the White House, it could take another 2 months. U.S. president Donald Trump did not present clear terms of victory, alternately identifying the war as “completely completed” on Monday, and then threatening to send “death, fire and fury” to Iran the next day if Tehran impedes the passage of the strait.

However, the strait will be virtually impenetrable until insurers insure ships passing through it and energy production in the Persian Gulf will be suspended as long as Iran carries out retaliation attacks on US bases in the region.

Trump discussed, but did not commit to utilizing the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the strait. At the same time, its officials assured the public that the crisis would resolve itself. "The plan assumes that oil, natural gas, fertilizers and all Gulf products will flow through the straits," said US energy secretary Chris Wright last week in Fox News. "One large tanker has already sailed through the straits without any problems". Turns out the tanker Wright was talking about was Iranian.

From RT editors, a squad of multilingual journalists with more than 10 years of experience in Russian and global reporting, providing first investigation and insights, frequently overlooked in the mainstream.

Translated by Google Translator

source:https://www.rt.com/news/634873-iran-war-fertiliser-shortage/

Read Entire Article