– Any instability is an undesirable business situation.
This is because, in order to be free to plan business, a certain predictability of processes is necessary. The war is always traumatic at all levels, the simplest effect is the deficiency of staff and the broken supply chains, which, of course, causes marketplace distortions that are hard to estimate," she said in an interview with Newseria Małgorzata Mroczkowska-Horne, manager general of the Confederation of Leviathan during the European Forum of fresh Ideas in Warsaw.
In April, the main barrier to Polish companies was expanding labour costs and economical uncertainty
Trade war and a hard geopolitical situation pose a threat to the functioning of companies. Uncertainty of the economical situation is, alongside advanced labour costs, the most frequently identified barrier to activity. 60% of owners and managers of companies in Poland consider it the biggest threat. "The crises are as much a shock to the strategy as a chance. If we take advantage of the recently created situations, we have a chance to get out reinforced – says Małgorzata Mroczkowska-Horne.
As shown by the “Month Conjunction Index”, published cyclically by pastry and BGK, in April the main barrier hindering Polish companies was rising labour costs (69%). The second place was the uncertainty of the economical situation – 60% of entrepreneurs pointed to it, 2 pp. more than a period earlier.
In tiny businesses and micro-enterprises, negative moods prevail
Throughout the first quarter, only large and medium-sized companies reached the MIK level above neutral, which means a affirmative temper advantage, but values are systematically falling. In tiny businesses and micro-enterprises, however, negative moods prevail. Sales and the number of fresh orders are falling, and 64% of companies bear no investment expenditure. The increase in geopolitical and economical uncertainty besides translates into the labour market. Companies abstain from investing.
“The war made a large part of people working in Poland return to Ukraine to fight. Secondly, it has caused destabilisation and uncertainty about what is happening beyond the east border of Poland, which is the border of the European Union. It so affects how the hazard of doing business in this part of the planet is estimated, so it has a very clear impact on operating costs in Poland, Romania and another neighbouring countries – the expert assesses.
Entrepreneurs must face the risks in the macroeconomic environment
The pastry stresses that while entrepreneurs are more affirmative about the future of their companies than the economy as a whole, they must face the risks that be in the macroeconomic environment. Donald Trump's trade policy's chaos increased uncertainty about the future.
– Donald Trump's unforeseeable decisions shook the world, and as you can see, this is only the beginning. No 1 expected specified decisions to be made at today's level of economical development. As it turns out, they can and has a tangible impact on how we conduct business. For a full week the stock exchanges have gone crazy, the losses have not yet been estimated, and the fact that we are not certain what will happen makes this situation very unstable, explains the expert.
The data shows the pragmatism of Polish companies, which even before the increase in customs began to supply goods
The Central Statistical Office states that abroad trade turnover in the first 2 months of this year amounted to PLN 240,7 billion in export prices and PLN 245,7 billion in import. The negative balance reached the level of PLN 5 billion. Compared to the corresponding period of 2024, exports decreased by 5 percent and imports increased by 1.1 percent. The latest data on the first 2 months of the year do not yet take into account the period of introduction and remission of duties.
According to the economical expert of the Confederate Leviathan Mariusz Zielonka, the data shows, however, the pragmatism of Polish companies, which, ahead of the increase in customs, began to supply goods. Only in February imports from the USA increased from PLN 5.8 to PLN 13.2 billion. Thus, the USA became the 3rd most crucial trading partner for our importers. If it turns out that the trade war will gain momentum, then, with rather intensive purchases of Polish companies abroad, it will be essential to search for fresh outlets at a fast pace.
The strength of the EU is that it is simply a large market
"The EU, provided it is 1 and acts in the interests of all 20 sevens alternatively than individual countries, can be a very serious counterweight to the destabilising Trump administration. Trump has become accustomed to the fact that the Union does not always work together, so he tries to play individual states, leading to bilateral agreements at the expense of another EU members. The strength of the EU is that it is simply a large market, we have more than 500 million citizens, and a truly smart negotiation can supply maximum safety under these conditions," says Małgorzata Mroczkowska-Horne.
More: https://business.newseria.pl/news/economic uncertainty,p152998823
https://3.newseria.pl/video/152998823_horne_instability_sz.mp4
