Giorgia Meloni between the hammer and the hardwood. "From a friend of the United States and Europe can become an enemy of both"

Change of rhetoric

The challenge for the Italian Prime Minister is that her coalition must balance the interests of the far right organization of the Salvini League, a devotee of Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin, with the interests of another crucial partner, the centre-right organization of Forza Italia Antonio Tajani, who is much more pro-European, and even publically supported the creation of a European army.

While the Meloni government is highly unchangeable for Italian standards, it must ease disputes between Salvini and EU-oriented Tajani. They both clash about the thought of creating a European army. Salvini even taunted that specified forces should never be commanded by the “crazy” French president Emmanuel Macron.

These political tensions are seen in Meloni's changing rhetoric in fresh weeks. She withdrew from her earlier statements that Ukraine would win and expressed serious doubts about EU reinforcement plans. She besides spilled a bucket of cold water on those European countries that say they can do without American power.

— I don't think I'm utilizing the word "winner" for the war in Ukraine," Meloni said in the Italian Parliament last month, denying her erstwhile position.

Sergio Perez / PAP

Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and Liga organization leader Matteo Salvini during the first summit of the EU's far-right parties in Madrid, Spain, 8 February 2025.

However, he continues to push his controversial thought that NATO safety guarantees would be extended to Ukraine without the country joining the alliance.

Its allies in the EU's ruling coalition stressed in their comments to POLITICO that Meloni remained profoundly committed to Europe and its fresh comments were mainly to calm Salvini. The most crucial question, however, is whether it has nevertheless underestimated the degree to which Trump truly turns distant from Europe.

“The way Trump has been acting for the past 2 months makes it hard to be a mediator, ” said Giovanni Orsina, prof. of contemporary past at Luiss University in Rome. — And now there's a chance that a friend of both sides will become their enemy. “He added.

Italy does not want to be at the mercy of France and Germany

Although Meloni is inactive committed to Europe, her change of rhetoric reflects the actual scepticism of Rome as to the pace and scale of EU reinforcement plans, Italian officials anonymously claim.

The main issue is proposed by the European Commission an alliance remilitarisation plan, which would include a debt package worth EUR 150 billion (PLN 626 billion 865 million) for associate States and greater fiscal flexibility of up to EUR 650 billion (PLN 2 trillion 716 billion) for countries that do not have adequate budgetary surpluses.

According to 2 people acquainted with the position of the government, Rome realises that it is weaker and smaller than France and Germany, and besides has a more realistic view of Europe's defence sector and its limited chances of fighting Russia without the US.

As POLITICO reported last month, Italy besides pressed for a greater engagement of the private sector in the arms plan. They fear that otherwise it will lead to a sharp increase in external financing costs at a time erstwhile the EU requires them to reduce excessive debt.

As with the United Kingdom, Italy's close relation with the US has reduced their dependence on European neighbours. Now Rome is afraid that it will stay at the mercy of France and Germany in the event of the breakdown of the transatlantic alliance.

— While France has always had a cool relation with the United States, no Italian government always questioned the US's defence relationship," said POLITICO Italian General Leonardo Tricarico, who was a military advisor to respective prime ministers.

As he added, after the defeat of Italy in planet War II, the country understood forever that it would never be a global superpower. “We can play a function everywhere in the world, but we can only do it erstwhile we are together with the US. Of course, we gotta do this in the EU, but not just there," he said. In his opinion, transatlantic decay would make it hard for both Europe and the United States to fight China.

OLIVER MATTHYS / PAP

Italian abroad Minister Antonio Tajani and president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Belgium, 17 March 2025.

Clearly, the allies are already aware of Italy’s discontent. In an interview given on the weekend to the Italian paper Corriere della Sera, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen sought to guarantee Rome that its defence company, Leonardo, "will greatly benefit" from increased defence spending and will play a crucial function in attracting Europe. Moreover, the latest version of EU arms plans — which contains provisions on private sector financing — already to any degree calms Rome's fears.

Faith in the Transatlantic Alliance

None of this, however, is able to full calm Meloni. According to Stefano Stefanini, erstwhile high-ranking Italian diplomat and NATO ambassador, the actions of the Italian Prime Minister besides reflect the faith, possibly wrong, that the transatlantic alliance can inactive be saved and that its fall has been exaggerated.

The centre-left parliamentarian and erstwhile European Minister Enzo Amendola agreed, who told POLITICO that Melona's efforts to reconcile leave Italy on "no one's land between the EU and the US".

Nevertheless, this is simply a view shared by Italians across the political spectrum. “I uncertainty that there will yet be a complete divided between the United States and the European Union,” said Danilo Della Valle, MEP from the left-wing populist 5 Star Movement. He added that the remilitarisation of Europe is yet what Trump asks for.

Coalition clashes

However, interior issues are more crucial to Meloni than geopolitical concerns.

In fresh years Salvini's glow has been overshadowed by Meloni, and a League legislature planned next period in Florence may uncover deep divisions within the party's ranks.

Last time Salvini brought criticism on himself for Self contact with the US administration — including an unauthorized telephone conversation with Europe-scorning Vice president J.D. Vance last period — and repeated calls for Meloni not to support EU defence plans.

According to League Senator Claudio Borghi Salvini, it is improbable that he will break the coalition soon. “After leaving the coalition government disastrously with the 5 Star Movement in 2019, he learned the risks of political stunts,” said POLITICO. He added that Meloni's change in Ukraine mostly calmed the League members.

EPA/RICCARDO ANTIMIANA / PAP

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her deputy, League leader Matteo Salvini, Rome, June 26th this year.

Although Meloni tries to regain the ground on the right, her fresh actions besides propose that she may be looking for a pro-European alternate to Salvini, claims Francesco Galietti, a erstwhile state authoritative and founder of the Policy Sonar consulting company.

On the weekend Meloni caused any surprise, praising her centre political rival Carlo Calenda, who leads the tiny group Azione, commonly hated by the far right. Calenda is besides a strong supporter of EU reinforcement. “This is her safety against Salvini,” said Galietti.

However, at the Azione Meloni conference, she denied that she was considering a formal alliance with Calenda, although apparent support for a friendly EU leader recalls her own support for the alliance.

However, as the relation with Trump becomes increasingly tense, the limits of this support are put to the test.

— If she reaches the point where she has to choose between supporting and not supporting Ukraine, she will not abandon her, she is besides devoted to Ukraine," said Stefanini. — But she'll effort to avoid making a choice as long as she can. “He added.