Gierasimov like Kutuzov

The definitive fiasco of the Ukrainian large spring-summer offensive, the Russian army taking over the strategical initiative and moving on to contruders.

On 4 October, 5 months have passed since the start of the Ukraine Armed Forces, a long-prepared, large spring-summer offensive to break up Russian troops in Ukraine, in peculiar the “East” group in Zaporozh. The Ukrainian command, on the basis of NATO-approved plans, was expected to go to the Azov Sea close Berdian Sea at a minimum, cutting the Russian army in Zaporozh and the left-coasted Khersonch in half. In an optimistic plan, it was assumed to break Russian troops and break in the Ukrainian army in Crimea and after cutting it off from continental Russia through the demolition of the Kerchen Bridge, the liquidation of Russian troops on the peninsula.

The implementation of this large offensive preceded the massive preparations of the collective west under the leadership of the United States, consisting in the supply of many armored equipment, artillery, giant ammunition supplies including artillery, bombardment equipment, communications including satellite, training of Ukrainian soldiers, etc. Invaluable intelligence, electronic, aerial and satellite intelligence were besides provided.

Universal mobilization in Ukraine allowed not only to rebuild, but importantly to grow the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which at the highest of the offensive numbered about 1,000,000 people under arms in all Ukrainian armed formations under MON and MMA. After 5 months, the effects of a large attack in a layer of reflected territories are poor. Ukrainian troops suffered severe losses in equipment, including those supplied by NATO countries, and above all everything in what is most valuable. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or injured. The defeat, in the face of large expectations spread by Ukrainian war propaganda from the 72nd Center for Information and intellectual Combat, caused a large decline in the morale of the Ukrainian army.

The situation is like the large preparations, the large hopes of the Nazi Germany related to the preparation of Operation “Zitadelle”, which resulted in the failure of the conflict by the Wehrmacht on the Kursk Luka, equally 80 years ago. Like then the russian army of Germans, so now the Russian army bled out the Ukrainian army units. In the battlefields 80 years ago, the “Tigers”, the Panthers, and the “Ferdinandas” – the “indestructible miracles” of the German arms manufacture donated to Panzerwaffe were burned. In the summertime of that year, there were indestructible “Leopards”, “Challangery” and “Bradleye” on Zaporozh steppes. Nobody denies the facts anymore, even the authoritative representatives of Kiev talk about the offensive fiasco and its end.

Of course, there is simply a narrow group of vicious prokiyan propagandists, swearing on Twitter, or Fb the reality that they are successful and pieremoga, but it is just propaganda having nothing to do with analytical professionalism. So much as an introduction, and now let's go over the analysis of the situation on the fronts, of the unfortunate Russian Ukrainian war, or, as a substance of fact, we should compose about this conflict about Ukraine.

80 years ago, after the "fracturing of the neck" of the fascist hordes of Wehrmacht and Waffen SS under Prochorovka, or Ponyri, the russian army began a controversy. Basically, from the end of the conflict of Kursk, the German army will only retreat, and after 2 years the fascist German reptile will be struck in the ruins of Berlin, over which the Red Army and the Allied Polish Army will block the victorious banners.

A akin strategy is likely to be applied present by the Russian General Staff (Staw). General Walery Gierasimov, decided not to give an operational pause during the fall period and the Russian army throughout the full front went on to a number of aggravating operations. General Gierasimov, as the large victorious chief of the Russian army from the Napoleonic War Generalissimos Michał Kutuzov, can wait and slow, but consistently pursues Russian strategical goals, taking into account the weaknesses and strengths of his subordinate soldiers.
Gierasimov has developed a plan that slow emerges and is implemented by Russian army groups in Ukraine.

Firstly, in view of the fact of the permanent and accurate tracking of Russian troops by American space and air forces, hundreds of satellites, drones and aircraft, Russian troops' movements are visible to Kiev as on hand. There is no strategical surprise by regrouping troops from 1 direction to another.
Transfers of reserves, a strategical maneuver provided for in the martial arts, are besides kept up-to-date by the Pentagon noted and sent to Kiev by the commander of the Ukrainian Army to General Merit.

What did General Gierasimov do?

The Russian troops were divided into 6 groups, including 5 main ones: “West” by Evgeny General Nikiforov, “Centre” by General Sergey Mordwiczew, “South” by Sergei Kuzowlev, “East” by Alexander Romańczuk, “Dniepr” by General Oleg “Makarewicz”. After completing the losses in men and equipment, training, she besides directed to the front of the 1st Armoured Guard. Units formed from the foundation of the 25th Reserve Military Army reached the front.

Also on the front, without unnecessary noise, quietly, were constantly directed after equipment, armament and training mobilized reserve regiments formed after partial mobilisation. Despite the dramatic situation at Bchmut, and above all in Zaporozh, the Russian armies defending themselves there were supported in a comparatively limited manner. Which many analysts were surprised, the Russians did not direct their strategical reserves there. They took positions in areas not covered by the Ukrainian offensive.

Irlogical? Apparently.

Bleeding, with a reduced morale, Ukrainian units inactive effort to approach south of Bachmut and the Oriechow-Tokmack operating direction. However, these are the proverbial "last pick-up", exhausted and bled-out Ukrainian army, which in an unsuccessful offensive led on 2 major and 2 auxiliary directions of attack lost the reserves of men and equipment and ammunition collected over six months.
However, this does not preclude the Ukrainians from carrying out offensive actions, but they will not have strategical significance.

Let's go now to a review of the individual sections of the front

A DENMARK STEP OF THE Front.

We are observing the concentration of Ukrainian troops, including the Marine Infantry Brigades, which were thrown here from Zaporozhye, the bomb squads equipped with PPS-84 Pontoon Bridge Parks. Ukrainian units from 73 Marine peculiar Operations Centre are very active. The Ukrainian shore of Dnieper is much higher, allowing you to view Russian positions and ease of landing on many Dnieper islands. Ukrainian forces keep a tiny bay close the so-called. The roof at the ruins of Antony Bridge. Ukrainian and Russian forces constantly clash on the islands as well as attack motor boats utilized by soldiers of the opposing party.

The Ukrainian side builds the possible to conduct a limited landing operation and attack the Russians on the another side of Dnieper. This will let them to cut the communication lines leading to Crimea, and reflect the Zaporoska Power Plant. Ukrainians have so far conducted 3 unsuccessful landing operations aimed at recovering from the cancer of the Russian largest atomic power plant in Europe, as confirmed by the head of Ukrainian intelligence Gen Budanow.

The Russian side, seeing the threat, performs many bomb, rocket, and artillery strikes on detected locations of concentration of Ukrainian troops and crossing equipment. He defends this section of the front the weakest of Russian groups in Ukraine, the group of Dniepr Gen. Oleg Makarewicz.

The bulk of Russian forces are reserve regiments formed during partial mobilisation. However, in the first line there are besides valuable units like the 61st Northern Fleet Marine Infantry Brigade, the 80th Mechanized firearm Squadron (Arctic), the 126th Coast defender Squadron, the 10th Specnaz Squadron, and late brought here from Oriechow Zaporozh, bled there in battles under Rabotino 810 Guarded Marine Squadron. The detachment is the recently formed 70th Division of Mechanized Rifles from the recently formed 18th National Army.

Zaporosian operational direction

After 5 months of bloody fighting, the Ukrainian attack of the “Tawrida Group”, 9 and 10 Corpses and the “Marun” Group commanded by General Tarnawski expires. Ukrainians attacked here in 3 places. The auxiliary attack at the Piatichatki ended completely today.

At the alleged Wriemiewski performance, after the first successes and “cutdown” of the Russian performance, it was stuck at Stromajorskie and Urożne. Although both villages of the Ukrainians have gained, they are incapable to advance further. The front's been frozen in the last fewer weeks.

One of the 2 main attacks of the large spring summertime offensive is the direction of the oriechow-tomack.
Although the Ukrainians proceed to drive fresh forces here and throw them into bloody infantry with the strong support of many artillery, land profits are negligible. The Russians brought this many reserves, defending themselves here for 5 months by the Russian 58th National Army, its 42nd Division and the “Soviet Infantry” – the BARS battalions, performed miracles of valor and soldier's sacrifice here, writing down gold in the past of the Russian weapon. The stakes were directed here a period ago by the long-awaited reserves of advanced combat value, specified as the 7th and 76th assault squadrons.

Numerous fortifications, a thoughtful strategy of minefields and obstacles, let Russians to lead an active defense. It does not seem that despite a large quantity advantage, many high-quality artillery originating from NATO countries, elite units well equipped with equipment from NATO countries like the 47th Mechanized Brigade or the 82nd Independent Squadron landing storm, the Leopard-2 and Challanger-2 tanks operating here, the Bradley Combat Infantry Trucks, transporters Stryker Ukrainians have penetrated here by further Russian lines of defence of the Suriakin Line.

Ukrainian troops on these "death zones" as General Leon Komornicki writes about, which Russian bomb squads built here, according to russian regulations, are simply bleeding out.
This is the Russian plan, an active defence based on reinforced areas, as he wrote in an extended technological article of April 2023, in the Russian periodical “Military Thought” which is the commanding general Alexander Romachuk.

In summary, in Zaporozh, General Tarnawski may throw Ukrainian units into further attacks, but even to the town of Tokmak, they are improbable to reach. Currently, Russian air landing units run a number of counterattacks and they stopped Ukrainians both under Wierbowe on the right flank of Ukrainian breach as well as under Kopani, on the right flank.

Donetsk operational direction

On the Ukrainian side there are powerful fortifications built here since 2014, and cities and villages are circumstantial fortresses like Avdieevka. many multi-level combat shelters made of reinforced concrete, passive shelters, communication tunnels, minefields and engineering dams, electronic surveillance points, gave Ukrainians a sense of safety like the Maginot Line to the French in 1940. Until then.

On October 10 at dawn, over 200 Russian guns in this powerful 203 mm 2S7M “Little” cannon, rocket launchers including BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Die, fell into Ukrainian positions under Awdieevka. The Russians' bomber air force dropped the glider bombs including a weight of 1,500 kg. The 1st Army Corps (Doniecki) went to attack action. In the thought of Russian staffmen there is simply a maneuver around the city- a fortress.

Ukrainian soldiers resisted heavy based on many concrete dense shelters, nevertheless on respective sections The Russians forced them to retreat. The Ukrainian 53th Mechanized Independent Brigade joined the counterattacks, but the Russians, despite their losses, are moving forward.

Russian Mi-28MN helicopters besides entered the battle, which, with the aid of light rockets headed "Izdielje-305" with a scope of 15 km, destruct Ukrainian bunkers and fire stations. Russian artillery and drones, first suppressed Ukrainian artillery. Fights are very bloody for both sides.

As you can see from satellite photos, the Ukrainian command moves units from another sections of this section from below Bachmut into the region of Avdievka. Repeat, he moves from another episodes, not directs the unit from the reserves. The Ukrainians' reserves were destroyed in the failed large offensive.

The “South” General Sergei Kuzowlev, who is in charge of this stunt, defends himself at the second main section of the Ukrainian attack, the confederate flank of the city of Bachmut. However, it seems that Russian paratroopers from the 31 and 83 Independent Guards of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces and the 106th Army Air Force Division together with units of the 2nd Army Corps and the 17th dense Artillery Brigade braked the Ukrainian forces of General Alexander of Syria at the head of the 3rd and 5nd Attack Brigades of 92th and 28th Mechanized Brigades. The line of the village of Kleshievka, Andrijevka, Kudriumovka is most likely the end where Ukrainian troops arrived as part of the large spring summertime offensive.

Krasnoliman operational direction

Fears in an unfortunate Sierebrian forest northwest of the town of Kremienne are bloody, but neither side is able to succeed. However, even here the Russian troops of General Andrei Mordwichev attacked Ukrainians so much that more north.

Under the village of Makijevka a broad front to the attack passed regiments of the Russian 3rd firearm Division mechanized by the 3rd Guarded Specnazu Brigade and the 236th Artillery Brigade. The Ukrainian 106th Territorial Defence Brigade is slow giving up the area.

Buyer's operating direction

The northernmost line of the front runs on the river side The slop and Russian side clearly wants to push the Ukrainians across the river. The Ukrainian Command directed 4 mechanized brigades here 2 months ago. However, General Evgeny Nikiforov and his “West” Group in addition to the 6th National Army received from Staka a unit of the 1st Armoured defender Army and a powerful group of artillery including the 9th and 244th Artillery Brigades, the 45th large Power Artillery Brigade. She's got quite a few Russian bombing on her side.

Second month, Russians lead intensive isolation of Ukrainian forces. They destroyed most of the bridges and crossing the Oskoł River, bombed a number of weapons and ammunition warehouses and fuels in this section. They are constantly destroying the site of the temporary dislocation of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainians evacuated the civilian population from Kupańsk and the countryside around, but the permanent fire effects of Russians eliminated many soldiers, and destroyed many units of equipment. Ukrainian Command, 14.10.2023 issued an alarming message, about the hard situation on this front stretch.

In general, the Nikiforov Gen., like an anaconda snake, “sticked” its troops to the front lines, engulfed them and “souled” Ukrainians with fire and plucking tiny assault groups. "He sheds blood from them" and weakened slowly, but constantly pushes them. Thus, as we can see, the Russian army, in carrying out an thought leading the operation in Ukraine, of General Walery Gierasimov, bles out the Ukrainian army and embarks on its slow pushing across the front line.

General Gierasimov as Marshal Kutuzov in 1812, retreated, fought and waited. Time works in favour of the Russians, and there's no way to curse reality that's different. What he had to give with supplies and weapons West has already given to the Ukrainians, and now fresh ones must produce, it takes time and money.

On the another side, after catching a breath as a consequence of choking with sanctions, The Russians caught their breath and the economy worked, the manufacture switched to war production tracks and to the army flows a river of fresh equipment. The immense resources of the russian equipment in the immense bases of the Ural are a large resource allowing manufacture to supply much more equipment.

For example, tanks T-72 or T-80 are not made from scratch, hulls, guns, tanks towers are from the times of the USSR. It's just refurbishment, fresh electronics, engines, reactive armor, and sending it to the front. The Russian manufacture provides deadly drones “Lancet” whose mass production is carried out in production lines installed in erstwhile large buying malls.

Precise ammunition – Ch-38 rockets, light rockets "Izdje-305". "Russian Hismars" or Tornado-S, received "Russian GLMRS" or satellite-guided with Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system, kind 9M544 with a scope of about 110 km. After a year, Russian bomber aircraft returned to the front, as it yet got effectors allowing to dispel Ukrainian units outside the Ukrainian OPL scope – FAB-250 M54 and FAB-500M54 gliders and late FAB-1500 with glider module.

Strategic aviation and its Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 aircraft are heavy renovated on bases in Engles, Olenji and Szajkovka are supplied with recently produced maneuvering rockets. The Russians are preparing the Far scope Aviation for a fresh winter run and conflict for Ukrainian energy.

Finally, the agreements with Iran and North Korea, together with an increase in their own ammunition production, eliminated the artillery’s “famine” in the Russian army. They're pulling all the missiles into the guns. The future appears to the Ukrainian army in black colours, the Russian "steam ball" is spreading, the Russian war device has turned high. What about time? Time as during the North War of Peter I, as a 100 years later during Napoleon's invasion of the Roman Empire in 1812 and as during the aggression of the 3rd Reich on the USSR, works in favour of Russia and General Gierasimov knows about it, so he takes his time.

Krzysztof Podgórski