Olaf Scholz has been head of the number government since the FDP exit from the government on 7 November. origin – Wikimedia Commons. licence – Creative Commons Attribution. Author – Lukas KobusGermany is experiencing unprecedented misfortune in its fresh history. The COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain disruption exposed industry's weakness. The Russian attack on Ukraine shook the foundations of the export model of the economy. In politics the utmost right and the utmost left began to strengthen. The SPD-Greens-FDP coalition broke up, condemning the Bundestag to an early election. Why did Germany plunge into a crisis? Is there any chance of their political and economical recovery?
On November 7, a political earthquake occurred in Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic organization of Germany (SPD) decided to resign Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, who was president of the coalition Free Democratic organization (FDP). The reason for the political gap was to be the ultimatum by Lindner, which contained economical demands contrary to the Scholz government's programme. Lindner was to request a simplification in climate policy, a cut in social spending, and warrant the constitutional integrity of the level of public debt. As a consequence of his resignation, the FDP resigned from the ruling coalition, making Scholza Chancellor of the number government of SPD-Zieloni. However, after a fewer days of constant media accusations of attempting to postpone the early election, the Chancellor came to an agreement with Friedrich Merze, the head of the opposition parliamentary faction of the CDU/CSU (a council of the German-wide Christian-Democratic Union and the Bavarian Christian-Social Union). Under his power, in mid-December, a motion for a vote of assurance for the Scholz government will be put to the vote in the Bundestag. After his probable rejection, an early election to the Bundestag will be held, initially scheduled for 23 February 2025.
A diversified coalition leading the hegemon economy
For the first 2 decades of the 21st century Germany has become the undisputed economical leader of the European Union. Political stableness and globalisation promoted the improvement of German industry. The enlargements of the Union to the east in 2004, 2007 and 2013 opened fresh improvement prospects through access to fresh markets and the inflow of inexpensive labour from the countries of the erstwhile east Bloc, including Poland. Despite the first indications of Germany's deteriorating geopolitical situation, specified as Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014, or even Donald Trump's triumph in the 2016 United States presidential election, Germany was inactive seen as a strong, informal leader of the European Union.
In 2021, the parliamentary elections in Germany were won by the SPD parties and the Greens. The triumph of the alleged three-colour coalition was due to the fatigue of voters by the 16-year-old firm Angela Merkel of the CDU, the negative effects of the first wave of illness on COVID-19 and devastating flooding in the west of the country. The CDU and the SPD were not curious in continuing cooperation within the alleged grand coalition, so for the first time in post-war past Germany formed a ruling arrangement consisting of 3 parties: the SPD, the green and left-wing Green organization and the free market, liberal FDP. This different alliance of parties with divergent views on the economy was possible thanks to a pool of EUR 60 billion of peculiar non-budget measures designed to combat the pandemic, which under the coalition agreement were planned to redirect to the green demands of the Greens and the SPD, while maintaining a precedence budgetary discipline for the FDP.
Unexpected Disaster
The fresh ruling coalition rapidly faced serious challenges. The pandemic-induced supply chain disruption revealed the structural problems of the German economy. The German economical model, based on exports of industrial products in a globalised planet at competitive prices, began to brake. Major differences between coalitions have come to light. The FDP organization began to publically advocate deregulation of any sectors of the economy, while the SPD and the Greens insisted on continuing the transition of the economy to renewable energy sources while pursuing a generous social policy.
A decisive blow to the German economy fell in the east on February 24, 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine meant the disgrace of Germany's policy of stabilising tensions in Europe through the common economical dependence of the European Union and Russia. The sanctions imposed in consequence to Russian aggression and the cessation of direct purchases of Russian oil and gas powerfully affected the German economy. The state faced an energy crisis erstwhile moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The situation was worsened by Angela Merkel's 2011 decision to put out the last German atomic power plants by 2022. The fast emergence in energy prices has contributed to the problems of many industries in Germany due to the protectionism of the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administration in the US and overproduction in China.
In the face of economical stagnation, the parties of the German government began to carry out communication aimed at building an individual position at the expense of the remaining coalitions. These actions deepened the chaos in the government. The judgement of the national Constitutional Court of 15 November 2023 shook the prospects of the further regulation of the trilateral coalition. In their ruling, the judges of the Court held that the German Government's decision to transfer EUR 60 billion from the funds allocated to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic to the Energy and Climate Fund was contrary to the provisions of the Basic German Act. Thus the judges destroyed the economical foundation of the ideologically inconsistent SPD-Greens-FDP coalition.
The crisis of leading German companies and the disastrous results for the coalitions of this year's September elections in the Lands of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia contributed to an even deeper instability of the coalition. The utmost right-wing alternate for Germany and the far-left Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht gained strong representation in the parliaments of the 3 states of the erstwhile GDR, while the Greens and the FDP were incapable to bring their representatives in. Since the announcement of election results in the East German states, the FDP organization has tightened its position towards the coalitions, which has sparked public accusations against its leadership of wanting to trigger accelerated elections. Scholz's decision of 7 November to expel FDP president Lindner from the government and the breakdown of the ruling coalition occurred at the time of the unprecedented crisis of German society and economy.
Will the Germans see the light at the end of the tunnel?
Automotive is 1 of many German industries in crisis. origin – Flickr.com licence – Attribution 2.0 Generic. Author – Sjaak KempeThe political crisis in Germany is at a minute of uncertainty in planet politics. Donald Trump's return to power in the US puts America's readiness to further support Ukraine. France is led by a number government based in unpopular president Emmanuel Macrona. China intensifys military exercises around Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Israel's war with Hamas and Hezbollah seems far from over. Germany, as the largest economy of the European Union, has always had a strong influence on the formation of associate States' consensus. The current decision-making paralysis in Berlin may have serious consequences for the European Union. For this reason, we have asked Agnieszka Bielawska from Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, an expert in the field of European integration.
As prof. Bielawska points out, Germany is an crucial European country, which for many years, frequently in tandem with France, has set the directions for improvement of the European Union. The break-up of the German coalition has called into question Germany's ability to play its current function in Europe. However, the expert adds – despite the request to focus on interior issues, Germany will effort to keep a course in European politics aimed, among others, at the safety of Europe in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian War.
Most of the German support polls indicate that following accelerated elections, the main force forming the fresh government will be the Chadetic CDU/CSU alliance under Friedrich Merz. Do the chadeci have a plan to return Germany to a strong economical leader of the Union? prof. Bielawska points out that – Ideas for regaining Germany's position in the Union can be found in the CDU's primary programme “Living in Freedom” adopted in May 2024. Safely lead Germany to the future." Among another things, it calls for a return to close cooperation with France and Poland, besides within the Weimar Triangle, and more frequent usage of the instruments of "enhanced cooperation" in the EU. The investigator besides mentions the CDU/CSU proposals to improve Germany's economical situation – among another things, extending the retirement age, linking it to life expectancy, and openness to atomic power. prof. Bielawska besides notes that the CDU/CSU will search to increase the function of the European Parliament and accelerate decision-making processes in the Union.
The current situation in Germany is simply a origin for concern and a informing to the coalitions ruling in another countries. Fighting by individual parties solely in defence of their own interests can lead to a political disaster of the full agreement in the face of planet disadvantages. The next fewer weeks will answer the question whether there are prospects for Germany to improve the interior situation and to return to Europe's leading role.
Oskar KMAK
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