The effects of fast global change are besides felt by Poland – not only in terms of security, but besides by the economy, demography and broad global policy.
Andrzej Derlatka
Several years ago, I wrote in the Financial Gazette about the emerging fresh order of the planet – a kind of “cold war bis”. Today, this process is even more visible. The planet is divided into 2 opposing blocks.
On the 1 hand, we have a block centered around China – exemplified by organisations specified as BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. On the another hand, the western block, which is trying to consolidate around the United States. But it's not a seamless process. The US is facing serious difficulties today: failure of economical dynamism, technological slowdown, as well as interior and political crisis.
Middle East and Iran – stalemate situation
Why do I think America is weak? That's from simple observation. For example, the current conflicts in the mediate East. They do not look peculiarly dangerous, but their scale and U.S. reactions show that the hegemonic power of the States is no longer obvious.
On the 1 hand, we have Iran – a country that is formally included in the alleged global South. In fresh years, Tehran has intensively armed itself, developing not only its armed forces, but besides an arsenal of tools for geopolitical influence. The alleged "resistance axis" plays a key function here – and to put it plainly: a network of organisations considered terrorist by many. It includes Hamas in Gaza Strip, Huti in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shiite militias in Iraq. It is these structures that Iran uses as its "extended hands" to destabilise the region and prosecute its own strategical interests.
Israel has been responding to these threats for years according to a strategy referred to there as "sowing lawn" – all fewer years it conducts precise, limited military operations aimed at the leaders and infrastructure of these organisations. These actions, while effectively weakening their potential, do not lead to a lasting solution to the problem. They are an ad hoc maneuver that reduces the threat, but not eliminates its sources.
A real, long-term agreement in the region is presently impossible. The ideological, political and spiritual differences between key actors – especially Iran and Israel – are besides deep.
The United States, although inactive possessing a powerful military potential, has a problem with its efficient use. We are seeing a situation where America does not take decisive action due to the fact that it is active in many parallel crises: geopolitical, economical and internal. The consequence is any decision-making paralysis. Yes, the US is able to support Israel, carry out a limited operation, but they are incapable to impose a fresh order in the region.
Meanwhile, Iran, despite interior burdens, is pursuing its strategy step by step.
In this context, the mediate East becomes an area where the effectiveness of modern geopolitical strategies is tested. conventional methods – military interventions or economical sanctions – do not produce the expected results. Western opponents learned to avoid them by adapting to a fresh order. And that is why present Iran can be not so much a military threat as a geostrategic challenge – hard to pacify without deep reforms and redefining safety policy in the West.
The problem is that Iran's society remains mostly under the control of the Ayatollah government – and, crucially, it inactive enjoys considerable support among the Persians.
There is simply a possible for unrest among national minorities, especially the Azerbaijani. By comparison, there are about 10 million people surviving in Azerbaijan and 35 million Azerbaijani, ethnically and culturally close Turkish cousins, in Iran. Nevertheless, Turkey does not, at least officially, search to disintegrate Iran. Turkish-Iranian relations are comparatively unchangeable and free from major tensions. We're dealing with a strategical part here.
In the event of a more serious conflict, theoretically the only real land force in the region could be the Turkish army. The Saudi army, despite a population of up to 600,000 along with the reserveists, is mostly based on abroad mercenaries, mainly from Pakistan. How weak the military structure is, she showed failed intervention in Yemen in 2015. The soldiers there were not willing to die for the interests of the Sauds or another Gulf states.
It must be made clear: the West is in an indirect conflict with Iran. The rockets utilized by militants are Iranian production. A real change in the situation would only be possible through the actions of land troops that would let the territory to be occupied and the enemy structures to be eliminated. Bombing itself is an expression of powerlessness – Israel and the United States do not want (or cannot) send their troops there.
Moreover, according to the plan revealed in June – presented by the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barak – the United States intends to retreat almost completely from the mediate East in the coming years. This means that outside Israel, no of America's existing positions in the region will be defended anymore. This besides means that until the U.S. rebuild their strength, they will not regain their erstwhile function as safety guarantor in the mediate East.
Washington hopes that the Gulf States – especially Saudi Arabia – will strengthen themselves. Hence the immense arms purchases announced during Donald Trump's visit. However, the tanks and aircraft of war themselves do not win – they inactive request trained, motivated soldiers. And they're missing these days, and there's no indication that this is going to change.
One of the key elements of the American strategy were the alleged abraham agreements, initiated at the initiative of president Trump. It is his large accomplishment – these papers have importantly reduced any threats to Israel and the region. Israel's authoritative designation from any arabian states has helped to reduce the conflict. arabian countries, recognizing Iran as a common threat, began to see Israel as a possible ally – on the rule of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
The practice showed that this cooperation was functioning – Iran's attacks on Israel were partially repulsed by Jordanian troops, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Although no alliance has been formally announced, there is indeed cooperation resulting from rational calculation of interests.
However, it is inactive unclear where the situation in Iran will develop. There is hope that there will be a change in the regime, although the script seems improbable today.
