On Friday at 9 p.m. there will be a gathering of Russian and US Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. It was planned that the leaders would meet at the United States Air and Land Force common base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The aim of the gathering is to make a ceasefire in Ukraine, but both leaders besides play for their interests. What could happen? And how does Ukraine turn out — or just bad or bad? Gen. Bogusław Pacek discussed possible scenarios with Onet.
The general says plainly: the script sucks for Ukraine
— The leaders will find what they promise. The script, I'm going to say this plainly, for Ukraine is alternatively poor, but realistic. And possibly the only possible 1 – says Onet Prof. Bogusław Pacek, Major General at Retired, manager of the Polish Military Museum in Warsaw.
— This script assumes that Russia will take over 4 circuits of Ukraine plus Crimea and will receive a postponement for many years of Ukraine's efforts to join NATO and the fighting on the front will be suspended. The US will reduce or reduce sanctions on Russia, this will again be able to usage its assets, which are now frozen in abroad banks. That's all, in a nutshell – says Gen. Pacek.
KRISTINA KORMILITSIN / SPUTTER/KREMLIN POOL / PAPVladimir Putin
Military indicates there are worse scenarios. “ It would be fatal if there was no agreement at all. And the only thing we would get would be a dry message after the talks that "they were started, their result is fruitful and they will continue." possibly the only thing Russia could agree to would be to frost the war in the air. Well, Putin truly wants it, due to the fact that only in this area can Ukraine truly endanger Russia – he explains. — However, since Ukrainians do not lose their spirit, this script can be misreceived by them, he argues.
— And there's option three. The point is that Putin will effort to drag the war, but without harshly setting conditions for Ukraine and, crucially, without standing up to Trump. He will make quasi commitments and give quasi promises he will not be able to keep anyway. Or he could keep a fewer that are irrelevant to Russia. Trump, on the another hand, will then be satisfied and will announce his success, although nothing truly or small will change – says the manager of the Polish Army Museum. “ And if Ukraine does not agree to specified an agreement, then she and Trump and Putin will be blamed for the alleged break-up of the truce,” explains Gen. Pacek.
Fabian Sommer / PAPVolodymyr Zelenski
What does Trump want? “This is the Achilles heel of the USA”
Let's be honest. Trump aims to accomplish the effect of stopping the war at any cost – I am afraid, including at the price of any version of the lesser territory of Ukraine, even without its consent. At the same time, he plays mainly to establish trade relations with Russia. Then it will reject its success and satisfy, among others, the burning request of the United States, which are uncommon earths. The U.S. needs them dramatically, and they don't have their own, it's their Achilles heel," the military emphasizes.
Will Oliver / Pool / PAPDonald Trump
— The US presently buys specified natural materials from China, while the People's Republic of China threatens to restrict supplies and thus can chess America. And Putin comes in, "all in white," and offers Trump that Russia will sale these natural materials to the States. Both sides, like the Kremlin, like the White House, are happy. due to the fact that although there was an thought to mine these uncommon earths in Ukraine, it would require large investments – he explains.
“For Trump, a deal with Russia will be better. And Ukraine? Europe? We, Poland? I fear that our interests may be little crucial to decision makers, Trump and Putin. Trump wants to establish serious trade deals with Russia, besides to revive production in the US. As you can see, it does so independently of the opinions of European countries, says Gen. Pacek.
"This rotten conflict will continue. Europe will be threatened, due to the fact that Ukraine can wait for Belarus' fate"
— All scenarios that can be predicted after this summit in Alaska presume that Ukraine will be in an highly bad situation. This conflict will most likely proceed until Putin reaches his goals. due to the fact that only the decisive actions of the US and Europe, i.e. the supply of arms for Ukraine and harsh sanctions, can hinder it - he convinces.
“ Russia’s goal is to break Ukraine’s teeth in military matters, block its entry into NATO and take power in Kiev and the full country by people with a pro-Russian attitude. This will be a serious threat to Europe, due to the fact that Ukraine, if Putin's goals come actual in any time, can become a country like Belarus. And specified a country, another satellite of Russia, can stand at the gates of Europe," he says.
— erstwhile I look at Ukraine today, I must say that it is not impossible. People there are terribly tired of war, discouraged, and any dream of peace, which would bring them a Russian mir, even at a advanced price," says Gen. Pacek.
Anchorage like a fortress. ‘The safety features are full. What? This is the work of the services’
The military explains that Anchorage, Alaska, where the leaders of the United States and Russia are to meet, reminds the fortress.
— The safeguards are full, i.e. those dictate the services of the countries whose leaders meet. The standard is to immobilize the streets so that each of them is full mobile. Plus peculiar services, police and snipers on the roofs, all metre of the city checked. The safety Service and the FSB took over power in a sense today," he stresses.
