The government task "Prices of Fuel Lower" does not comply with the EU VAT Directive. According to the European Commission, associate States are free to set reduced rates for certain products, specified as food, but are not free to set VAT rates for fossil fuels. These should be taxed at the basic rate, i.e. in the case of Poland 23 percent.
A letter for correction of the VAT simplification was sent to the Polish and Spanish authorities. The European Commission has conveyed through spokeswoman Louise Bogey that Poland has not responded to the call so far.
In the current form, the CPN is valid until 30 April as regards the reduced VAT rate and until 15 April as regards the reduced excise work rate. No information is yet available on the possible extension of regulation or on the possible shortening of its validity.
What happens if the government bends to EU requirements?
If Poland returns to the erstwhile VAT rate, prices can increase rapidly by about PLN. Take, for example, the April 9, 2026 update. On this day the fuel is to cost a maximum of:
Gasoline 95 – 6.27 PLN/l
Unleaded petrol 98 – 6,88 PLN/l
Diesel — 7,83 PLN/l
That's at 8 percent. If the standard rate were 23 percent and another components of the price would not change, we would have a price list like this:
Gasoline 95 – 7.14 PLN/l
Unleaded petrol 98 – 7.84 PLN/l
Diesel — 8,92 PLN/l
In view of the price list for 9 April, price increases would so amount to 87 grosz per 95, 96 grosz per unleaded 98 and 1.09 zł on diesel, respectively.
Importantly, the European Commission's advice to reduce excise duties would not be able to balance higher VAT. The excise work is already at the lowest EU level.
The chance to cut oil prices provides a truce between the US and Iran
Fortunately, it seems that the fuel crisis has a chance of stability. The current oil price (as of April 8, around 19 o'clock) is $94.71 for Brent and $94.35 for WTI. In 1 day Brent's oil dropped by 13.64 percent and WTI by 16.47 percent. This is definitely little than in the mediate East crisis apogee, where the rate for a barrel of oil was $115.
Giant discount is due to the deficiency of escalation in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. resigned from an armed assault on Iran. Despite Donald Trump's ominous announcements of the "day of bridges" and "day of power station", as well as the transfer to the region of thousands of infantry soldiers, the offensive was yet halted.
The situation around the Strait of Ormuz remains unclear. On the 1 hand, Donald Trump declared to scope an agreement, on the another hand, the media receives information about the inactive existing roadblock. The Reuters Agency claims that there is inactive a informing in the region of the Iranian Navy that announces the demolition of any ship that will effort to defeat the strait.
