The beginning of the fresh Year promotes 2 crucial functions of discipline on global relations: diagnostic and prognostic. Therefore, I will face this challenge utilizing the arsenal of geopolitics of critical realism.
It requires focus on the most crucial powers whose activities and interactions become supervised at international, regional and local level. So let's start with the latest past: 2023. You gotta agree at first with Professor John Mearsheimer, which pointed out a fewer weeks ago that the multipolar planet had already existed since 2017, and its basis is inactive the strongest United States, as well as the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. I would most likely be considered immodest if I wanted to callback the summary of the book "Basic Problems of Geopolitics and Globalisation" published in 2016 in which I predicted this triumvirate as the main players in the following years. Fortunately, Aristotle finds the category of “right pride”.
China and Xi Jinping
Let's start with those who lead change. As for the most crucial national political events in China, they were the introduction of a fresh Chinese constitution and the election for the 3rd word of president Xi Jinping, complementing the earlier decision of the 20th China Communist organization legislature erstwhile he became Secretary General. That's erstwhile the extremist staff cleaning started. The Prime Minister has lost power Li Keqiang, a pet of “global investors” who then unexpectedly died at the age of only 68; and a erstwhile leader of the state, Hu Jintao the gathering was held. This announced the end of the influence of the Komsomol faction so well aligned with the American Democratic Party. In 2023 the process of clearing the elite deepened. Note: Growth and the equally abrupt disappearance of the abroad Minister Qin Ganga at the end of June; in August a fresh Minister of Defence Li Shanfuand then the Minister of wellness Ma Xiaowei, previously liable for cataouts; in addition, changes to the heads of the Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Science, Ministry of Culture, Ministry of civilian Administration and others. This has not happened in China in 30 or even 60 years, i.e. since the Cultural Revolution. So Xi's first decade of power was preparation; now it's time to change the paradigm, which will accelerate the construction of the fresh era of the large China revival. The Belt and way initiative celebrating the decade was extended to 2023 by the Global improvement Initiative, the Global safety Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative. Beijing's quest to become a global leader in the “common destiny of humanity” is accelerating.
This is shown by Xi Jinping's first abroad visit to Moscow. The 40th gathering with president Putin immediately after his 3rd word was held precisely a decade after his first. The leaders signed a message on the deepening of the "universal partnership and strategical interaction in the fresh era", the core of which is to build "The Grand Eurasian Partnership with the implementation of the "Past and way Initiative". However, the deep sense of the minute of past has given the best words of the Chinese leader cast on the host's estranged three-day visit that they are the leaders of changes that have not occurred in a 100 years. The fact that this is about the triumph of the October Revolution in 1917 may prove that this Putin-Xi Jinping gathering on the cruiser "Aurora" 4 years earlier announced the now revealed course. There is an unprecedented number of visits by Russian elites to China: Prime Minister, organization leaders, talker of Duma. The culmination of the alliance is Putin's visit to the October 3rd Belt and way Forum in Beijing, where – despite the war in Ukraine – he was welcomed as the main guest. In 2024 the flagship task will be to build a fresh improvement centre with the capital in Harbin covering the regions of both countries.
The year 2023 is the strength of Beijing's rivalry with Washington leading to a political and military-level breakdown, with a continuing advanced volume of trade. It has been revealed that in 44 areas of advanced technology, China has an advantage already in 37. A comprehensive challenge for U.S. hegemony forces the Collective West to full mobilize. Thus, under the slogan of "East Asian NATO", Washington began to bridge the antagonism between South Korea and Japan to build a regional restraint instrument with the militarized Philippines and Australia. A process akin to Finland's and most likely Sweden's entry into NATO, which is intended to weaken Russia's capacity. Beijing, which according to the mantras of Western narration does not seem to have allies, is not idle, and in 2024 will surely accelerate the improvement of the "Asian four" covering not only Moscow, but besides Tehran and Pyongyang. The support of these forces given to Russia in Ukraine is simply a crucial confirmation of this trend.
China skillfully applied the rules of playing it, attempting without military war to limit the movements of the old hegemon. An example of the U.S. making a balloon—literally and figuratively—was releasing a fewer over its territory; the shot down physically actually achieved the goal of stopping the Secretary of State's arrival, Antony BlinkenEspecially the secretary of Yellen's treasure to China. Previously, Beijing limited the holding of US bonds to about 7 100 billion, while in the US, further banks began to bankrupt. Adding this to the halting of political and military contacts at the highest level, Washington has been brought to intellectual uncertainty, the stronger it is that, as any sources say, intelligence capabilities in China have been importantly weakened recently. Xi Jinping, however, decided for the first time in six years to visit the last chance to meet the American president on the occasion of the APEC summit in San Francisco. He argued that "the planet is large adequate for 2 superpowers and their relationship" and that Taiwan's return to mainland China was only a substance of time. The January elections on the island will most likely bring fresh tensions, due to the fact that the antagonistic contradiction has not been abolished. China has developed the tactics of "business and interpersonal cooperation" with no illusions about the intellectual difficulties of deciding to quit the sense of uniqueness by the "hidden state", i.e. financial, military and intelligence elites based on neoconservativeism.
Russia and Putin
For Russia, 2023 marked the continuation of the proxy war, which he conducts in Ukraine against the Anglo-Saxon axis, as David Arachamia, leader of the Nation's Servant faction in the ultimate Council, spoke openly during an interview on Ukrainian television. It was she who mobilized the support of 50 states, hundreds of billions of dollars, military training, arms supply, intelligence, mercenaries, and yet the launch of the Geoconomial War Instrument in the form of 15,000 sanctions. Russia not only did not fail, but it managed to make 3% of economical growth and, above all, shift the tracks to a war economy to accomplish an upcoming triumph in Ukraine.
The distance between Kazakhstan and Armenia besides undermined Moscow's credibility as a regional leader. A unusual reaction in the case of the first, since Russia under the banner of the Collective safety Organization saved the country from the "colour revolution". However, during the war on Mountain Karabach, Moscow remained passive against aggression seeking to regain its own territory of Azerbaijan, as if it were not, without helping allied Armenia. However, the end of the year is over due to the fact that during the extraordinary Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Saint Petersburg Putin managed to put Aliyev and Paszynian next to him. Clearly, the strength of the fresh paradigm is gaining momentum.
In the throng of reflections on the battlefield and a series of so rapidly following facts and factions, fewer saw the emergence in 2023 of a fresh doctrine of abroad policy, essential to realize the processes taking place according to the rule of intentional causality. Russia has adopted the identity of the unique state-civilization, the vast Euro-Asian and europacyphal powers, the world's sovereign improvement centre, which carries out a historically unique mission to keep a global balance of power and build a multipolar global strategy that provides conditions for peaceful, progressive improvement of humanity based on a united and constructive programme. Its essence is the creation, in cooperation with China and India, of the “Grand Euro-Asian Partnership”.
This fresh “large space” task is to be created by combining the possible of all countries, regional organisations and alliances based on the Eurasian economical Union, the Shanghai Cooperation and Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), by aligning their improvement plans with the Chinese Belt and way initiative and even maintaining the anticipation of participation of all the countries and associations concerned. At the same time, the precedence became "to destruct the ore of the dominance of the US and another hostile countries in planet affairs, to make conditions for each country to quit neocolonial and hegemonic ambitions". The continuation of the 2024 confrontation is so inevitable. The fact that it goes beyond geostrategic issues besides convinces the intention to neutralise attempts to impose pseudohumanist and neoliberal ideological guidelines that lead to the failure of traditional, spiritual and moral principles of humanity. The doctrine so states what The Secretary-General heard him propose Russia "Great Reset" during a gathering in Davos in 2021. Without Russia, although with the participation of China in 2024 the Davos gathering under the slogan "trust" will effort to calm global capital, that the "new era" of regaining national sovereignty as guarantors of the common good will not happen.
Meanwhile, it can be predicted that among eleven candidates for the 2024 presidential election, Vladimir Putin will win for the 4th time, supported earlier by Xi Jinping. With any caution, it can be hypothesized that systemic reassessment will happen later. This will aid to strengthen any people: safety and ideology, Nikolai Patrusheva, the Secretary of the safety Council, who in 2023 openly referred to the imperial and right-of-law doctrine of "Third Rome"; in the economical sphere of Deputy Prime Minister Belousov and liable for de-dollarisation in the Eurasian economical Community, Sergei Glazieva; in abroad policy Deputy Minister Riabkova; in the field of military chief of the General Staff, Gierasimov, whose function increased with the upcoming triumph in Ukraine; yet author of the concept of “Great Eurasia” Sergei Karaganova. The fresh direction is besides evidenced by the announcement of the reconstruction of the monument of Felix Dzierżyński by the head of abroad intelligence, Sergei Narishkina. most likely not everyone will be pleased that this is how the heritage of noble Poland began to be appreciated...
BRICS and Saudi Arabia
In 2023, the fruit of the counterhegemonic alliance between Beijing and Moscow was the success of the 15th BRICS summit held in August in South Africa. As many as six fresh members were accepted: Saudi Arabia, Iran, United arabian Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina. As of 1 January, the group will cover almost 50% of the world's population, 37% of GDP by purchasing power controlling about 40% of oil and 34% of natural gas. In fact, as many as 40 states (half formally) are in line, aspiring spontaneously to participate in the "inter-civilisation union of states for the fresh Era", which rejects the erstwhile paradigm of colonialism, imperialism and neocolonialism imposed respective centuries by capitalist powers. The BRICS flag shows a "right to development" where global cooperation is intended to benefit each another under the "profit-profit" principle. This practice was confirmed by the extremist change in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran under the baton of Beijing and Moscow, which, after giving up their hostile attitude, entered BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Besides, the ongoing change of Petrodolar into Petrojuana by the Saudis has become 1 of the blackest swans for the US in the past year. But their success was triumph in Argentina, Javier Milei, the first policy of the “Great Reset” in full glory, which convinced the majority of the program of full privatization, weakening the national state, dollarization of the monetary system, yet breaking up with BRICS in favour of an alliance with Washington and Israel. president Brazil's maneuver failed, Lula Da Silva which in promoting Argentina's integration into BRICS wanted to halt this scenario. Moreover, it can be feared that cognitive perception management technologies utilized in the promotion of Mileia will be exported to another countries, as before the "colour revolutions", but they have learned to defend themselves, as Serbia is the latest example.
Russia's leadership in the BRICS group in 2024 announces further advancement in the de-dollarisation of the planet economy, the formulation of the concept of a fresh clearing currency, and in the sphere of value further promotion of inter-civilisation cooperation thanks to events specified as fashion festival or BRICS movie festival. Cooperation was announced on the construction of its own online infrastructure, including the improvement of the local technology sector, data protection and regulation of the improvement of artificial intelligence based on conventional cultural values. The June summit in Kazan is most likely besides another phase of the enlargement of the group, possibly Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, Pakistan, or possibly even Turkey, which, in order to show itself, has already begun the process of normalising relations with the enemy of Greece.
Israel
From the point of view of classical geopolitics, 2023 revealed the actuality of Spykman's thesis on Rimland's usage of the Anglo-Saxon axis to halt Eurasian Heartland. In addition to the already burning Ukraine, it is getting hotter on the Korean peninsula, around Taiwan and in the mediate East. Without entering into the complexities and historical specificities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, along with the Hamas attack on October 7 on bilateral antagonism, there were contradictions of appropriate global rivalry. The strength and ruthlessness with which Israel reacted by applying the rule of collective work towards civilians, most susceptible women and innocent children, frightened the public opinion of most countries of the world, with fewer exceptions to which Poles belong. They most likely exhausted all their humanitarianism to support Ukrainian victims, as they burdened Russia's account, which “must now hate”.
From a geopolitic point of view, the support given to Israel by the "Collective West" under the slogan "right to defend" seems to be the last nail to the coffin in the alleged soft power dimension. After all, there are doubts as to why the notorious defence of "human rights" did not work? Why were there no humanitarian corridors for children and women from the Gaza Strip created for Egypt, which could become a “house of liberation” this time? The cynicism of the powers at specified moments becomes very evident. After all, Washington’s defence of the “rule-based order” was justified by the Allied Mobilization against Yemeni Huti, who began attacking Israel, then paralysing shipping in the Red Sea.
Moscow, on the another hand, began to emphasize the differences of its own war tactics towards this Israeli, which does not diminish the suffering of millions of Ukrainians deprived of shelter, electricity, gas, food and simple sense of security, as rockets and drones can fall anywhere and at any time. Even India, which initially granted Israel the "right to self-defence" against terrorism, changed their attitude only realizing that they had become an exception among the Global South states, for which the leadership position had previously tried to compete with Beijing. Thus, their chances have decreased significantly.
India and Modi
The intensification of global antagonistic contradictions hinders balance, as India found in 2023. Prime Minister Modi's visit to Washington, D.C., which was expected to increase their leverage capacity as an independent power encountered a different US strategy. erstwhile Delhi showed no desire to distance itself from Russia, to throw India into the furnace of war with China, as well as strengthening the QUAD, an effort was made to bring them to order (based on principles...). An information operation was carried out, the axis of which was the charge of India by Canada for the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.
The zero-one geopolitics "or with us or against us" was not a large surprise, as it seems, from here, at the September G20 summit in India, the IMEC economical corridor plan by the United arabian Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Europe, which was an American counteroffensive against the Chinese Belt and way Initiative, was a maneuver of 3 BRICS members to wait out. The Palestinian bloody harvest has not made the US popular in India, and the agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will no longer be possible. Five-day visit by the Minister for abroad Affairs Subrahmanya Jaishankara At the end of December in Russia, she announced further deepening the "privileged strategical partnership". It represents an increase in trade, which was already $50 billion after India began buying Russian natural materials, saving Moscow from the consequences of Western sanctions. A gathering of 2 leaders was besides established in 2024. 73-year-old Modi, the country's Prime Minister since 2014, has been preparing to align Nehru's evidence regulation and expects the support of the Russian leader. We can anticipate that in 2024 Russia will lead to a strategical agreement between China and India, possibly during the gathering of the 3 leaders at the BRICS summit in Kazan in June 2024.
Europe
Strategic confusion can be observed peculiarly in the European part of the Collective West. The European Union has integrated itself in the Anglo-Saxon geostrategism of stopping Russia in Ukraine, the consequence of which is the breakdown of economical ties with Moscow, resulting in increased production costs, creeping deindustrialisation and the upcoming economical crisis in Germany. Not only China, but the United States, which makes Europeans pay for gas respective times more than at home. Updated strategy: "US in, Russia out, German down“ So it works perfectly.
At the beginning of 2024, another major test for European policy is announced; erstwhile Belgium, Germany, France issue a decision concerning the confiscation of Russian state assets amounting to a full of $300 billion which were frozen in consequence to Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2022. Washington's difficulties in mobilizing further measures to the war on Russia in Ukraine lead to this desperate step. Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize winner claims that this will have disastrous consequences on the US dollar position as a global reserve currency. Just as Israel's unconditional support cancelled the flagship doctrine of "human rights" so the consent to confiscation would undermine assurance in the systems of right and currency of Western actors.
The geopolitical fragmentation of Europe means, on the 1 hand, the withdrawal of Italy from the Chinese Belt and way Initiative and, on the another hand, the joining of Slovakia to Hungary, whose geopolitical code contrary to Brussels and Washington has no anti-Russian facet. Uncertainty can besides be seen in Paris, which remembers the humiliation experienced by the Anglo-Saxon axis at the creation of AUKUS, and that is speaking of the strategical autonomy of the EU and the European army, and that is approaching India, and that is inviting unsuccessfully to the BRICS summit. C
after visiting Beijing, Macron no longer wants blind Atlanticism, it besides does not support Eurasianism. This may be why France, together with Germany, is coming up with the initiative of the EU federalisation, namely to build a superstate to make a pan-regional competitive block against the Eurasian Partnership and the Anglo-Saxon "Rule-based Order". The real anticipation of this script is evidenced by the transformation of the American “coalition of willing” to pacify Yemeni Huti into a “coal of reluctant” due to the fact that among the 20 states mentioned by Washington, only London is certain until half do not want to uncover themselves, the Netherlands sends 2 and Australia 10 soldiers; France has not subjugated the fleet to the Americans, and Spain announces that it will engage only within NATO or the EU. fresh members of BRICS, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, through their refusal, have besides shown that the directions of their alliances are already different than recently. After all, the Red Sea region and the Persian Gulf region are to be a fresh brixland.
USA and Trump
The year 2024 will be highly crucial due to the possible return to the position of president of the United States, Donald Trump. Attempts to legally halt his candidacy and intense propaganda in media controlled by neoconservatives indicate legitimately that the fear for the US's systemic concept is being fought for. There are many indications that Trump will be better suited to implement the thought of transforming the U.S. from a postmodern empire pursuing the global interests of the class with Davos under the LGBT flag (the influence of which reached the Vatican itself) for a strong power based on the interests of American real capital and conventional American values. The antagonistic contradictions between Trumpism and globalism can be seen in the creeping civilian war, for now in the legal and ideological dimension, but in the face of the increasing banking crisis, expanding inequality, infrastructure and drug problems, and the failure of global influences that could take a more extremist form at the end of the year.
Supporters of the maintenance of the empire are inactive confident, so despite evidence debt of $34 trillion administration Bidena decided to go to the military. As many as $886 billion in 2024. On the another hand, it allows this movement to be the last clear hegemonic argument in the form of an extra dollar, as the American debt increased by a coin only in the last 3 months. The war budgets of Germany and Japan and China and Russia are besides growing, with a evidence of 111 billion, due to the differences in costs to those in the US, can even be increased respective times. The influential American geostrateg, Edward Luttwak However, he is assured that the US will win the ongoing war with China.
The year 2024 so promises to be a period of extremist acceleration of geopolitical changes. The trend of strengthening the multipolar planet will come upon the counter-tend of the defence of American advantages and maintaining the influence on the Collective West by Anglo-Saxon Heartland (Kees Van Der Pijl). The erstwhile includes a further expansion of the BRICS Group, further de-dolarisation, a possible systemic transformation in Russia and China, as well as an increase in public awareness towards promoting peace, stableness and limiting the corporate agenda promoted by the Davos Class. In turn, counter-tendence can mean a greater projection of the American military power in Asia and the mediate East, the consolidation of NATO and the simplification of autonomous aspirations in the EU, and yet a desperate search for rescue for an empty dollar-based financial system. In this competition, therefore, fresh conflicts around Taiwan, the Philippines, both Korea, clashes with Iran, and even greater US interference in Mexico's case, which openly aspires to the BRICS group rejecting the neocolonial dictatorship of Washington.
Under these conditions, Poland's geopolitics will begin to fluctuate between further focus on the Anglo-Saxon bloc and support for the EU national bloc project. The most optimal solution that would give hope of stopping the global military confrontation would be a conference held in late 2024 with Trump, Xi Jinping and Putin, where the leaders of Brazil, Germany, France, India and South Africa would besides be welcome.
Prof. Gracian Cimek
photo of cremlin.ru
Think Poland, No. 3-4 (14-21.01.2024)
