From signals of war to misjudgment. A case survey of Dutch intelligence before Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The 2026 "L'Express" ranking placed the AIVD and MIVD (Dutch intelligence and safety services) among the European leaders, recognizing their operational and method capabilities and cooperation with partners. However, this was not an assessment of their forecasts for 2022. The reconstruction of "de Volkskrant" shows that even respective hours before the Russian attack, a joint unit of both services did not consider a full-scale invasion to be likely. The Dutch case shows how valuable access to information and entrenched explanation can make it hard to admit the limits of one's own cognition — and how the preparations of decision-makers can limit the effects of misjudgment.