From Liberalism to Protectionism: How the planet Economy Changes

With Tomasz Wróblewski, president of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute – think tank, which is referred to as conservative, Kazimierz Krupa talks.

Tomasz Wróblewski: We like to talk – common sense. Conservativeism is more a cognitive apparatus for us than an ideology. We look at the present and the future through the prism of past experiences. This is simply a tool that helps foretell the effects of different actions, not a set of dogmas that you should cling to.

However, on the banners you have libertarianism – the thought of freedom, which is peculiarly close to me.
Yes, actual freedom does not mean privileges or claims. Modern liberalism has been distorted – it identifies freedom with the deficiency of borders and the right to everything, alternatively of responsibility. Therefore, present we must return to the roots: freedom from coercion, not freedom au any action. It's a subtle but fundamental difference.

The planet is changing faster than politicians can realize – artificial intelligence, shifting economical power towards Asia, geopolitical tensions... Does liberal capitalism inactive have a future?

Globalization in our form is over. The draft of liberal democracy after the fall of communism was distorted. The free marketplace worked well until everyone played by the same rules. The minute we let China into the system, which did not follow marketplace rules, there was an imbalance. The West lost jobs, full industries collapsed, causing social tensions and a shift from liberal ideas to national values and protectionism.

“I have a 1000 PLN pension” – little than the minimum wage?!

So the economy has become a policy tool?

Definitely. Bill Clinton's 2001 decision to accept China to the WTO opened the door to the planet market. The Chinese utilized the privileges of free trade, but did not apply its rules – they blocked import, forced technology transfer, chose investments that were only beneficial to themselves. The West lost on its own terms. present we are in a full-scale trade war – each armor his economy, introduces barriers, regulations and duties. The consequence will be slower growth and impoverishment of societies, only the rich will be poorer.

Do we have 3 main blocks in this fresh arrangement – the USA, Europe and China?

Technically yes, but in practice Europe is the weakest player. America continues to attract capital and innovation, Asia is increasing rapidly, and Europe is drowning in regulation and over-protective internalism. We hold the advantage in life expectancy and in the amount of free time, but besides, we fall behind in all another respect – innovation, digitisation, investments in modern technologies.

Are we facing economical NATO – the economical alliance of the West?

More like vassalization of Europe to the US. economical decisions are taken in Washington, Brussels must adopt them. The symbolic scene was erstwhile the head of the European Commission signed a trade agreement with Trump at his golf club – as in the 19th century, a Chinese dignitary signing a deal with the British on their ship. This shows that a strong state has an advantage in negotiations and economics.

And Poland? It became a key point of the NATO east flank and a logistical hub. Is that truly changing our position?

Poland is perceived better abroad than it evaluates itself. For many, this is an example of the success of transformation – fast growth, low unemployment, dynamic industrial expansion and attracting investment. But underneath we have increasing debt, immense social spending and weak innovation. You can't be strong militarily without a healthy economy. We spend more on society than Sweden, with taxes at Ireland level. It can't last forever.

You are known for your sympathy for the free marketplace and Donald Trump. But his protectionism runs counter to the principles of liberalism.

It's protectionism forced. If globalization worked on unequal principles, it was essential to defend itself. Trump only reacted to the consequences of the mispolicy of erstwhile decades. Yes, globalisation has brought out billions of people in Asia from poverty, but at the expense of the mediate class in Ohio, Birmingham, and the Ruhra Basin. It's a lesson that capitalism without rules does not work fairly.

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Let's talk about the future of capitalism. Will it last the technological revolution and artificial intelligence?

Innovation always brings chaos and solstice. After each wave of delight comes correction and consolidation. This will be the case with AI – first the bubble, then the monopolization of the marketplace by respective giants. Capitalism won't end, but it will. The introduction of digital currencies will be crucial. Whoever controls digital money will impose their rules on the planet – just as after Bretton Woods Americans did thanks to a dollar.

So we have a fresh Bretton Woods?

Yeah. Chinese and American digital money will compete for dominance. Europe is trying to make its own so as not to become a financial colony. Those who master AI technology and blockchain will control not only the economy but besides social values, standards of life and functioning of societies.

Finally, you frequently say that the state should give way to society. Is that even possible?

Not right now. We are entering the era of strong national states. The planet is besides polarized to be ruled by the spontaneous cooperation of societies. If we don't find a fresh consensus, we're facing interior conflicts. The price of peace will be advanced – little freedom, slower growth. But I guess there's no another way.