On Tuesday, May 6, Friedrich Merz should be elected the 10th Chancellor of Germany. Elections in the Bundestag for now They failed for him.. The Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic organization of Germany (SPD) have a majority, but Merz lacked six votes in the first round.
Never before has there been a situation where the German Chancellor was not elected in the first circular of voting. If Merz inactive manages to get the required number of votes soon, his coalition faces a immense challenge.
In the polls, the CDU/SPD coalition has weaker results: while the CDU in the latest Money poll has as much votes as the alternate for Germany (AfD), or 25%, the SPD only reaches 15 percent. Since the elections to the Bundestag on February 23, both ruling parties have lost their support. In addition to AfD, they besides gained the Greens and the Left. Now both the far right and left forces They're targeting Merz.
— I am convinced that from next day we will be able to regulation our country in a determined, planned and trustworthy way,” said Merz on Monday, May 5, erstwhile the CDU, CSU and SPD signed a coalition agreement in Berlin entitled “Responsibility for Germany”. However, there is small assurance in these parties: according to a poll published by the "Bild" paper in late April, only 27%. The Germans believe that the fresh government performs a better occupation than the erstwhile coalition ‘light signalisation’, consisting of SPD, Green and Liberal FDP.
Dispute points
Merz – if he wins in the next vote – will take office in a time of tremendous global uncertainty. The war in Ukraine requires decisive decisions. Merz wants provide Ukraine with Taurus maneuvering missiles, however, which is controversial in the SPD: it is 1 of many issues that divide the fresh government.
Donald Trump is fundamentally questioning NATO. Merz stresses the request to strengthen European defence. Thanks to the peculiar fund for the Bundeswehr, adopted in March, the fresh government has opportunities here, but besides a large responsibility.
Customs dispute with the United States In addition, it threatens to impose an export-oriented German economy. It will besides be a test of Merz's negotiating skills and designated abroad Minister Johann Wadephul from the CDU.
The challenges are huge. Merz wants to strengthen the Bundeswehr and keep transatlantic friendship. However, there is no clear majority in the fresh Bundestag that would let this. The CDU leader knows that very well. That is why inactive in the erstwhile parliamentary word He pushed a peculiar fundto free hundreds of billions of euros for defence and infrastructure.
Merz announced that he would order migrants to return to the border on the first day, which is controversial both legally and politically. The fresh Home Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has to deliver on this issue electoral promises that the SPD do not like.
The German economy, which has been in recession for the past 3 years, needs a fresh impetus that, in addition to investment, could reduce taxes or reduce bureaucracy. Here too, the coalition will face a hard test.
Merza dilemma
The biggest challenge for the coalition will most likely be to deal with AfD. This organization stayed on Friday 2 May recognised by the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution as ‘ectremistic’Which puts Merza in a dilemma. If he supports the ban on organization activities, AfD will be loudly opposed for years — and benefit from the position of victim. If he rejects it, he will be under even more force from the left.
MICHAEL KAPPLER / PAPFriedrich Merz in Bundestag after failing in the first circular of election as Chancellor, 6 May 2025.
It is possible that if Merz becomes Chancellor, his government will inactive face a imminent defeat. The differences between CDU and SPD are significant. If the parties proceed to lose support in the polls, the breakdown of the government may become an emergency solution to save their own image — which caused the collapse of the ‘light signaling’ coalition.
But not everything is lost to Merz. 2 peculiar funds for defence and infrastructure offer him exceptional opportunities. If Merz succeeds in reviving the German economy, the temper in the country can yet improve.
One thing is certain: Merz must rapidly show up after winning the elections and re-direct Germany towards the way of economical growth. He will not have 100 days to acclimatize in a fresh function — he will gotta act rapidly from day one.
