CDU organization conferences are usually alternatively subdued compared to meetings of CSU delegates. They deficiency the luxury of Bavarian baroque. The emotions of Christian Democrats are always far more subdued than members of their sister party. However, at a organization conference in Berlin everything was different than usual.
Friedrich Merz, president of the CDU and candidate for Chancellor, was not allowed to talk long. At first, he was stifled by the applause, and at the end he received six and a half minutes of enthusiastic applause. This was even more than Markus Soeder, hosting the Bavarian CSU leader in Berlin, who was besides welcomed with approval. However, it should be remembered that appearances are misleading. In fact, unanimity was much smaller than it might seem.
A week earlier in the Bundestag, two proposals to reduce migration. AfD voted together with CDU and CSU, and helped the Chadetic parties vote 1 of them. Merz consciously accepted it. Rolf Muetzenich, president of the SPD parliamentary faction, happily utilized it as an chance to dramatize and announced that Merz had risked opening of the ‘gate of hell’.
— The election run went well until the decision to put these proposals to the Bundestag vote. Since then everything has gone wrong “ A fellow associate from northern Germany complained. “Perhaps even 40% would be possible in national elections,” she argued, fearing that the CDU was in danger of falling into a downward spiral. another delegates besides complained, though discreetly.
Hundreds of thousands of people are on the streets and demonstrated against alleged collusion between the CDU/CSU and the AfD, which is highly right-wing on any issues. CDU offices have been attacked, organization parties were disrupted and staff staff were threatened. erstwhile Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke exceptionally and criticized Merz's actions as inappropriate. However, the fact that “half the country is in chaos”, as the media sometimes reported, is greatly exaggerated. There is much to propose that Merza's migration initiatives did not affect either the CDU/CSU or himself as a candidate for Chancellor, on the contrary.
In the latest polls, and there were a fewer this week, CDU/CSU remains at around 30% across the country. There is barely any movement among another parties either. According to a survey by Deutschlandtrend commissioned by ARD and “Die Welt”, 43 percent of the respondents consider the CDU/CSU approach in Bundestag to be “essentially right, even with the acceptance of the AfD votes”. Only 27% said it was "essentially wrong". Above all, however, Merz's popularity has increased markedly.
Currently, 33% of respondents consider him a good candidate for Chancellor, which represents an increase of 5 pp. SPD and Green candidates, the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his deputy Robert Habeck, rank respectively 8 and 7 pp. after him. To date, the CDU/CSU has always been more popular in the polls than its candidate for Chancellor, and Merz was seen by his critics in organization ranks as a hazard factor, problematic and unpopular. He's managed to change that.
It's not Merza's organization yet.
Friedrich Merz, who needed 3 attempts to become president of the CDU, was long ignored by his own organization and CSU. By interior critics, alleged Merkelians, as well as allies other possible candidates for Chancellor, Markus Soeder, leader of CSU, and Hendrik Wuest, Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia. But now, Merz is in charge of the CDU..
He decided to vote in the Bundestag of his five-point Migration simplification plan without consulting the party's leadership and announced it 2 weeks ago on Friday, to the surprise of close trustees. Merz yet wanted to break through the glass ceiling 30 percent. in polls and show that he is serious about improving migration policy. He achieved the latter, but not yet the first. At least not for now.
The voices inside the organization were frequently critical. Merza's migration initiative was "a totally unnecessary action", in line with repeated claims from the parliamentary faction and local structures. — Why make a goal of yourself in this way, why let yourself unnecessarily Charges of Common Interest with AfD?, asks an influential associate of the CDU from North Rhine-Westphalia.
— Why don't we focus on what we can do? In the economy? — complains a chapedic veteran working for the government of 1 of the East German lands. — Habeck must keep his promise of growth, presenting the current yearly economical report, while at the same time Number of unemployed almost reaches a symbolic figure of 3 million. What do we do? We're talking about migration. And bring AfD aboard.
Marcus Brandt/dpa / PAPVice Chancellor Robert Habeck, Minister of Economy and Climate Protection, at the Greens rally. Flensburg, 7 February 2025.
The fact that the CDU abandons the chance to win in voting in parliament erstwhile the danger arises of obtaining the majority together with the AfD shows that Merz is inactive far from achieving his goal to reorganise the group. After 3 years in opposition, it is no longer a organization from Angela Merkel's time, but it is not yet CDU Merza.
Friedrich Merz, along with specified people as Thorsten Frei and Alexander Dobrindt, CDU and CSU leaders in the Bundestag, needed months to specify themselves as opposition after losing power.
— The parliamentary group was inactive in consensus mode long after the defeat in the 2021 election and She continued to search compromises with another parliamentary groups. Until we said, “That’s enough,” says the trustee Merza. - We're the opposition. Now we want to specify and enforce our positions.
The faction has learned that. However, there is no agreement on the last step, to turn distant from the SPD and the Greens for a joint vote with the AfD, even without agreement and gaining majority with them. Such ideas proceed to discourage many Members and private organization members.
"It has a very different character than Merkel or Helmut Kohl"
— By voting with AfD, we woke the political left from the coma. They were at the bottom. Now they can get the most mobilized again, says an influential CDU man from North Rhine-Westphalia, shaking his head. But that's it. This is the mark of Merz and his advisors. in the final phase of the election campaign: maximum mobilisation among political opponents, which would automatically have the same effect among their own electorate.
— The strategy of asymmetric demobilisation, i.e. avoiding clear statements on controversial issues in order to discourage voters from another parties from going to the polls, worked well during Angela Merkel's time. Now, in economically and politically tense times, with the increase in populist parties, no longer, says trustee Merza. “We must step distant from the election run tactics of Merkel. We request to become more explicit and engage in targeted controversy. We request to do this, as has always been done in the German electoral campaigns to Parliament before 2005: a run with an emphasis on combat.
Changing tactics would besides be more appropriate for a candidate for Chancellor than a consensus-based approach from the Merkel era. — Friedrich Merz has a very different character than Merkel or Helmut Kohl in later years. He does not wait or observe, he does not intervene only erstwhile there is simply a compromise on the horizon, but He goes forward, provokes, wants to force discussions. In this respect, he is simply a bit like Trump, says a longtime friend of the organization leader.
The fact that the election run strategy and the candidate's personality did not match was 1 of the reasons defeat of Armin Laschet in 2021. Currently, even those organization members who consider the Bundestag migration initiative a mistake would like to see a small more Donald Trump-style campaign.
EPA/CLEMENS BLAN/ PAPArmin Laschet, erstwhile CDU leader, and his successor Friedrich Merz. Berlin, 3 February 2025.
— Why does the president spend so much time debating migration? There is nothing for us to gain, says a longtime associate of the CDU and calls for simpler messages on another topics - Why won't he go Where people are waiting for us and would vote for us: to tiny and medium-sized enterprises, to farmers, to retirement homes?.
In another words, Merz should focus more on the needs of alleged average people. “The plan should be as follows: meetings on site and listening, addressing mark groups, holding respective press conferences a week with solutions to people’s problems. The plan which the party's authorities have been implementing over the last 2 weeks of the electoral run is headed this way: The economy is to return to the spotlight and the debate on migration is to be eased. However, the fresh course of clear policy tightening is to be maintained, even if SPD and Greens disagree.
— In the current situation, everything points to Friedrich Merz becoming Chancellor. Union possible for this election run is 26 to 34.5 percent., no another organization has that range, not even AfD, says close advisor Merza.
The nonsubjective must be as strong as possible in this area to CDU and CSU did not request 2 coalition partners after the general election. — If we gotta regulation with SPD and FDP or SPD and the Greens, we can swing it. Then nothing will happen for the next 4 years, explains a elder organization official.
Merz announced that in the event of a hard coalition, he would exercise his authority to give instructions to the Home Minister to limit migration, regardless of which organization the minister will be. According to Dobrindt's plan from CSU, this announcement was to be announced at the last simple election campaign. However, Merz refused to wait and see what destiny would bring. Unlike Angela Merkel or Helmut Kohl.
