France in the first half of July 2026: successive heat waves, fires, drying out the Loire occupying half of its erstwhile trough, the end of hope for another planet football championship, last 14 July Emmanuel Macron. And Marine Le Pen, who competes with the run before the presidential election. We urge the comment of our expert, Joanna Różycka-Thiriet.
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On July 14, Emmanuel Macron picked up his last military parade at the Champs Elysées for a national holiday. The defilement was exceptional. It was attended by over 6,600 people, 98 aircraft, 315 vehicles and 193 Republican defender horses. Soldiers from overseas territories danced under the Arc de Triomphe hook in front of the Chief of Staff of the Land Army and gave it conventional necklaces.
The subject of this event was “The strategical motivation of Europe”. It was a show of the French armed forces. For Macron's presidency, the defence budget was nearly doubled from EUR 32.7 billion in 2017 to over EUR 57 billion this year (not counting wages). This year's 14 July was besides a show of unity of coalitions of willing – states supporting Ukraine, which had previously sat in Paris. Soldiers from 35 countries of the coalition took part in the parade, including 2 F-16 aircraft from Poland. On the honor stand in the colors of the French flag Macron sat surrounded by leaders, with whom he frequently knows not from present (the president of Ukraine and his wife were present, who were greeted with applause). Prime Minister Donald Tusk was besides present. And who's gonna take Emmanuel Macron's place next year?
And here we come to Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Unity (RN). On 7 July, a long-awaited conviction was passed against this politician in the second instance. rather unexpectedly, the court allowed her to launch in the presidential election, which will (as is already known) take place on 18 April and 2 May next year. After the First Instance trial on alleged parliamentary assistants (more about this issue You can read here) Marine Le Pen had a five-year ban on moving for elected positions.
In the second instance, Le Pen was again found guilty of misappropriation of public money (European Parliament money). The Court of First Instance even added that it was ‘particularly serious acts’, but that it had a milder punishment than the court of First Instance. Le Pen was sentenced to 45 months of deprivation of passive electoral rights, of which 30 months suspended. The remaining 15 months of ‘non-choice’ (‘inéligibilité’) have already passed, due to the fact that the court in First Instance ruled that the enforcement of that conviction should commence immediately. In addition, Le Pen was sentenced to 3 years in prison (2 in hinges and 1 year with a bracelet on her leg) and a fine of EUR 100,000. Due to specified a sentence, media speculations continued for respective hours as to whether the policy would actually launch – she had previously announced that she would not run with a bracelet limiting freedom of action in the campaign.
All the doubts she had herself dispelled on the evening of July 7. In a tv interview TF1 stated: “I am a presidential candidate tonight”. In her opinion, she and her organization are innocent. She said the RN offers France a duet – she for president and Jordan Bardella (the organization chief) for Prime Minister.
Le Pen besides announced a motion for the annulment of the judgment. Thus he will bake 2 birds with 1 stone – until the final settlement the conviction will not be executed, so he will not run electoral in a police bracelet on his leg and have limited freedom of movement. At the same time, she can proceed to say that she is innocent, due to the fact that if procedures are ongoing, her innocence should be presumed. The Cassation Court has announced that it will issue a ruling before the elections. This time, however, RN and its leader do not want to rush. Confirmation of the guilty candidate a fewer days before the election, nor proof that she is treated in a privileged way (her case is settled faster than others) are not National Unity needed for anything.
Within little than 24 hours of the judgement in the Second instance of Le Pen not only announced the election launch, but besides launched the website https://marinelepen.com/ (What is interesting about the content on this page can only be passed after pressing the "I support" button), she released the first electoral leaflet and besides met with voters on 8 July.
The leaflet proved controversial. It shows Marine Le Pen with spread arms, in the pose of the statue of Jesus from Rio de Janeiro. It besides includes the slogan ‘Pour la France’ — ‘For France’. As well as the “La Renaissance” — “Rebirth”, which refers to the situation of the candidate herself after the last decision of the court. But Renaissance happens to be the name of another French group, until late the organization of president Macron. present its leader, erstwhile Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is moving for president himself and accused RN of “forging the brand”. The first court gathering in this case will be held on 27 July.
According to an Elabe poll conducted after 7 July, Marine Le Pen can number on the best consequence in the 1st circular of the presidential election: he intends to vote for it from 34 to 35.5% of voters. He besides wins in the second circular for today.
Joanna Różycka-Thiriet
Expert at Schuman Foundation
