French “war economy”

Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, France has taken action to decision its military apparatus and part of the economy to supply and support the fighting Ukraine.

State president Emmanuel Macron proclaimed "Économie de guerre" (to control to war mode) in a speech of 13 June 2022 inaugurating the Eurosatory arms fair at the exhibition centre in Paris-Nord Villepinte. This concept was besides reflected in the Military Programming Act for the years 2024-2030. Since Donald Trump was sworn in as president of the United States on 20 January 2025, Hexagon besides uses the concept of "war economy" to leverage its position in NATO.

According to the Paris leader himself, the aim is to "optimize production cycles in terms of the needs of the armed forces "to respond rapidly to the needs of a partner like Ukraine". France is to produce "more, better and faster", and actions are to comply with the principles of transparency, simplification, safety of supply chains, safeguarding human resources and securing funding. The nonsubjective is to accelerate the production process and reduce the maintenance costs of equipment for which Paris agrees to get equipment with a lower level of method progress.

In March 2022, Macron met representatives of Dessault Aviation, KNDS France, Airbus, Thales, MBDA, Naval Group and Safrana. From September 2022 to April 2023, meetings of arms manufacture and French government apparatus were held weekly. The French leaders were looking to make an industrial base that would first let the shortage of ammunition to be filled. Ammunition to produce faster, achieving autonomy in the supply of natural materials and expanding production capacity, especially in the tiny and medium-sized enterprises sector, by expanding employment and providing additional resources.

The French president opposes the acquisition of arms, ammunition and equipment abroad, believes that the increase in spending should besides service to strengthen the European defence and industrial and technological base and to accomplish strategical autonomy by Europe – peculiarly crucial after Donald Trump's second word of office. In February 2022, the consortium of Airbus and Safran bought from Eramet a metallurgical company Aubert&Duval, which resumed the production of military high-pressure turbine shields utilized in chopper engines that Hexagon had previously imported from the US.

Paris traditionally seeks to lead the European part of NATO and to gain credibility for this function both among European partners and in Washington. During the February to April 2023 maneuvers of the ORION involving 12,000 soldiers from 14 states, France tested the "hypotheese d’engagement majeur" in which it becomes a framework country conducted jointly with large-scale and high-intensity operations allies.

In late 2022, France ordered 200 additional mid-range Akeron MP missiles in the MBDA. In January 2023 Paris and Rome ordered in MBDA for the equivalent of US$2 billion 700 Aster-30 missiles to the SAMP/T rocket systems to be donated to Ukraine. In March 2025, France, UK and Italia ordered an additional 218 Aster-30 missiles in a modified version of B1 expanding their scope from 120 to 150 km. and Aster-15 for the Navy. The rate of production of missiles by the MBDA, which in 2022 was 42 months, is expected to decrease to little than 18 months in 2026.

The improvement to guarantee an uninterrupted supply chain is to be subject to the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA). The function of coordinating the comprehensive and meaningful information flow of the SBORPION programme (Synergie du Contact Renforcée par la Polyvalence et l’infovalorisation) is to be strengthened. In 2021, the French General Staff set up 10 working groups to survey the readiness of the army, economy and society to fight a possible war, the findings of which the French apparatus now uses the concept of "économie de guerre".

Some French plants were commissioned to manufacture and store dual-use assemblies. Stocks are intended to cover the request for 2 years of war and to be regularly refreshed. The costs of retention and maintenance of components and materials are to be borne by the companies themselves, in accordance with the regulations presently adopted. In the future, this could make a conflict on the French capital-Hôtel de Matignon line.

KNDS France was recommended to double the quantity stored in the Bourges barrel to self-propelled cannonshaubic CEASAR cal. 155 mm. from 100 to 200. To accomplish this goal, the company moved out of office, adapted all premises to production halls, introduced a three-shift working mode from Monday to Friday and working Saturdays, increased the automation of production and employment taking retired soldiers and workers into work.

The plant in Bergerac suspended in 2007 at the end of March 2024 reactivated, thanks to the effort of 100 million. EUR half of which was contributed by the State Treasury, Eurenco. The plant is capable of producing 1,800 tonnes of gunpowder for artillery ammunition annually. Thanks to the mill in fresh Aquitaine, Hexagon will be able to produce 100,000 rounds of ammunition a year, regaining independency in the field of the production of kal shells. 155 mm, which had previously been imported from Germany and Sweden. The Bergerac plant works permanently for 3 shifts, but its management declares to have an infrastructure reserve to increase production capacity. 90% of this production presently goes to the armed forces of Ukraine.

French projects were ambitious and assumed production in 2024 of 40,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition and in 2025 100,000 or even 150 000 pieces. In the end, production doubled from 30,000 pieces a year to 60,000 pieces a year. Military spending by 2030 was expected to increase to EUR 100 billion, but in this financial year it is only EUR 50.5 billion, representing 2.1% of GDP. By comparison, in 1960, military spending in France amounted to 5.4% of GDP and erstwhile the russian Union fell apart in 1991 – 2.8% of GDP.

The budget deficit of 6.2% of GDP in Paris will be an obstacle to increased expenditure on arms. Minister of Economy Éric Lombard and Minister of Defence Sébastien Lecornu are to urge insurance funds and banks to invest in the French arms sector, France is to change its taxation law to encourage specified investments. The minister of the economy even wants to address "people with crucial savings", but excludes cuts in social expenditure.

Paris is besides looking forward to the fresh debt instrument proposed by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, allowing military spending to scope EUR 150 billion in the next 5 years. In turn, under the ReArm Europe programme, European countries are to allocate an additional EUR 800 billion to arms. The French leader urged European NATO allies to increase their military spending to 3% of GDP, however, the forecasts of military spending of Hexagon itself talk of 2.2% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2.1% in 2029.

Employment in the arms sector presently reaching 200,000 people in France will besides be a barrier. With limited funds until 2030, it may not be possible to increase it, and the current level will not let capacity to be increased. Minister S. Lecornu besides announced in March 2024 the anticipation of introducing precedence for military procurement in manufacture or taking over personnel, resources and machinery.

The distant time horizon of 2030 present does not let us to reliably forecast the success of the "économie de guerre" strategy of Hexagon. During the proceeding at the National Assembly on 4 December 2024, the manager of DGA Emmanuel Chiva called French efforts not “a war economy”, but “an economy that prepares to avoid suffering under crisis conditions”. In turn, erstwhile asked on March 1, 2025, if France is in a state of war economy, Éric Lombard replied "We are not, but we should be."

The strength of French political will will depend on whether République will play a function in Europe, to which Türkiya aspires in the mediate East. Let us remind that Ankara is trying to establish credibility in Washington as a trustworthy buffer against Da’esh – Anatolia is to organize a coalition of Syrian, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Libya and Egypt against muslim radicals. France would like to organise a akin safety buffer against Russia in Europe.

The current political power of Germany and the peripheral geopolitical power of England in Europe will not be an obstacle to Paris. Nor will Donald Trump – rather surprising, unlike most another European leaders, the president of France has rather good individual relations with the president of stars and lanes. Despite the differences of political culture visible to the bare eye, the Yankee tycoon sees and respects the French President. Here again comes the analogy with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is besides seen by Trump as a "hard" player and a hard competitor but besides as a possible "solid" partner.

So let us reiterate here that, in the absence of crucial external obstacles, it is only up to République itself to become a plenipotent of the US in Europe, just as Turkey can become a plenipotent in the mediate East as part of the fresh regionalization of the planet to which the "God Emperor" seeks. muslim political culture is not a burden for Turkish Reis but an asset within the framework of a fresh civilizational pluralism to replace liberal globalism – the conservative Sultan would be the natural leader of the muslim world. Similarly, Trump can perceive Macron's liberal political culture, predisposing him in turn to leadership in liberal civilization of Europe.

Ronald Lasecki

photo of wikipedia

Think Poland, No. 21-22 (25.05-1.06.2025)