Fragile truce in the mediate East. Six weeks of truth. There's 1 catch

Apparently there were inactive misunderstandings at night, and any details were not finalized on Thursday morning. According to Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu's office, the approval of the agreement by the Israeli cabinet is uncertain. The office will only gather erstwhile Hamas stops trying to trigger “the last minute crisis”. In particular, Netanyahu's office accused muslim militants of withdrawing from the elements of the agreement in order to get "last-minute concessions".

We know the first lines of the agreement.

The ceasefire will apply for the first six-week phase. During this time, Hamas is to release 33 hostages. Among them are all women (civils and soldiers), children and men over 50.

First, the terrorist organization is to release hostages and minors under the age of 19 and then men over 50. Israel is to release 30 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli detention for all civilian hostage. For each Israeli soldier held by Hamas, 50 Palestinian prisoners are to be released.

At least 3 hostages are to be released weekly in the first phase. Hamas inactive holds about a 100 hostages, more than 30 of whom are dead.

In the first phase, Israeli forces are to gradually retreat from Gaza centre. Palestinians displaced from the north to the south of the coastal region are to return. In return Israel will free all Palestinian women and children under the age of 19 who were imprisoned from 7 October 2023. until the end of this phase. The full number of free Palestinians will depend on the number of freed hostages.

According to the agreement, 600 aid trucks are to be delivered to the Gaza Strip daily. 300 trucks are expected to hit the north side of the coast. Fuel is besides to be transported to the destroyed Zone.

Negotiations on the subsequent phases of the agreement will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire. All another hostages, including Israeli soldiers, are expected to be released. It is besides expected to agree on a permanent ceasefire and to retreat Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas' victory?

In the transitional phase, Israel will establish a 700-metre buffer region along all the borders of the Gaza Strip, which may be extended to 1,100 metres in any places. After 50 days, the Israelis are to retreat completely from the Philadelphia Corridor on the border with Egypt.

In the 3rd phase, all another bodies should be transferred and the mostly damaged Gaza Strip should be rebuilt. The reconstruction will be supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations. Phase 1 of the agreement is to begin on Sunday afternoon with the release of the first 3 hostages.

While the relatives of the hostages and many Israelis are grateful and relieved that the end of the suffering of the kidnapped Israelis is already in sight, experts wonder if this agreement is not the beginning of Hamas' return to power in Gaza.

Hamas leader Chalil al-Hajja was besides drunk with victory. Praised 7 October 2023 massacre and showed no remorse for the suffering Hamas brought to the Palestinians in Gaza. "What happened on 7 October is simply a military and safety accomplishment that will be a origin of pride for our people, our nation and future generations," said al-Hajja. He foretold the continuation of the fight for the demolition of Israel and the liberation of Jerusalem.

Both the outgoing and upcoming US administration sought to dispel the impression that the agreement would enable Hamas to return to power. "What has been agreed so far is Phase 1 and the final solution to governance, safety and reconstruction will be taken in the negotiations between Phase 1 and 2, which includes the question of who will regulation Gaza in the future," said Matthew Miller, U.S. State Department spokesman. "US government is committed to ensuring that Hamas will never regain power in Gaza".

Donald Trump's national safety advisor made himself equally clear.

said Mike Waltz in a podcast interview on Wednesday.

Representatives of the future Trump administration were active in negotiations in Qatar. Hamas cannot play any function in the future Gaza Strip, as Al-Qaeda or IS said Waltz. Nor can the Palestinians. "We will never find a better future and we will never have a truly unchangeable region unless this cancer is eradicated."

The situation in Gaza

However, the question arises: who will halt Hamas from regaining power in the Gaza Strip in the future if Israel first withdraws to the buffer region and then completely? After all, Hamas is the only crucial military unit in the coastal runway. presently there are simply no competing groups with adequate weapons and fighters to argue a terrorist organization. And what truly happens if an agreement is not reached in the forthcoming negotiation phases?

Therefore, any observers consider this ceasefire to be fragile, especially if no agreement is reached in the forthcoming phases.

Says mediate East expert Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council.

Hamas wants the Israeli forces to completely retreat from the Gaza Strip and permanently end the war, while Israel will see Gaza as a safety issue that requires military presence. “ There is presently no peace and stableness partner to trust on in the management of Gaza, ” explains Plitsas. If Hamas and Palestinians reject the presence of safety forces and a fresh governing body, this could lead to an ongoing rebellion in the Gaza Strip.

It appears that the Trump administration has made any back-room assurances to Israel to convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize the deal. “We explained to the Israelis that we would support them if they had to return (to Gaza — ed.) and if Hamas did not comply with the terms of the agreement,” Waltz said on Fox News.

Donald Trump, who will take office next Monday, besides made it clear that he wanted to support Israel's interests in the wider region. He announced that he would usage the momentum of the agreement to extend the so-called. Abraham’s agreements between Israel and the arabian States.

Security advisor Waltz suggested on Fox News that Saudi Arabia is another candidate for normalization of relations with Israel. Many experts see the emerging reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia as the reason why Hamas and his panic sponsor, Iran, decided to attack Israel on 7 October 2023. The aim then was to prevent this approximation, which would change the strategical map of the region to the detriment of Tehran.