Five Questions Surrounding Israel's Unprecedented Strikes On Iran

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The answers will determine the course of this crisis…

Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets early Friday morning. This followed the latest US-Iranian nuclear talks stalling, continued speculation that Iran is secretly building nukes, and growing Israeli anxiety with the situation. From the looks of it, Israel decapitated the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC, yet Iran still vowed to retaliate.

The situation is fluid, but as of Friday morning Moscow time, there are five questions whose answers will determine the course of this crisis:

1. To What Extent Did The US Assist Israel?

Trump publicly distanced himself from Israel’s rapid lead-up to these unprecedented strikes, which followed his reported rift with Bibi, but Iranian policymakers have long believed that the US and Israel are iron-clad allies that always work together. Their assessment of the extent to which the US assisted Israel in these strikes will therefore determine the scope and scale of their retaliation. If they conclude that the US played a role, then American military assets in the region and elsewhere might be targeted.

2. What Will Be The Scale & Scope Of Iran’s Retaliation Look Like?

Building upon the above, Iran can either throw everything that it has at Israel if it senses that this is a pivotal moment in their decades-long rivalry or it can carry out a comparatively more restrained retaliation, though the latter might still be exploited as the pretext for follow-up strikes by Israel. Apart from targeting American military assets, Iran could also finally blockade the Strait of Hormuz like it’s long threatened to do, though that could also be exploited as the pretext for direct US military involvement.

3. Will Trump Resist Mission Creep?

Even if the US didn’t assist Israel, Iran shares this view, and American military assets aren’t targeted in its retaliation, Trump might still get dragged into the conflict if the “deep state” convinces him to authorize air defense support of Israel and/or joint offensive operations with it after Iran’s retaliation. He’d risk irreparably splitting his base with all that entails for his movement’s future if he does, particularly if this results in the US’ involvement in a major and costly regional war, so he’d do well to resist mission creep.

4. Why Couldn’t Iran Better Defend Itself?

Initial reports suggest that Israel really did indeed hit Iran very hard, thus raising questions about Iran’s air defense systems. Likewise, there are also questions about why it didn’t preempt Israel’s attack amidst the rapid lead-up in recent days, especially considering how often its representatives talked about Iran supposedly being ready to launch “Operation True Promise 3” at any time. Iran is now weakened and Israel won’t be caught by surprise so the odds of total victory are less in Iran’s favor that before.

5. What Comes Next If A Major Regional War Is Somehow Avoided?

A major regional war can be avoided if Iran doesn’t significantly retaliate against Israel (though a possibly choreographed show might follow), Israel is humbled by Iran’s outmatched retaliation (which the US doesn’t significantly help it defend against), or Iran absorbs Israel’s second blow and doesn’t retaliate. If the nuclear talks aren’t resumed and swiftly lead to a deal on the US’ terms, then a “cold peace” might follow characterized by intense hybrid warfare (sanctions, terrorism, Color Revolution plots) against Iran.

Israel sought to eliminate what it considers to be the existential threat that Iran poses, but the damage that Israel reportedly inflicted on Iran could pose an existential threat to Iran if Israel exploits the aftermath through more strikes and/or hybrid warfare. These zero-sum mutual perceptions of existential threats greatly raise the stakes of this crisis. If Iran doesn’t deliver a knockout blow to Israel (and survive the inevitable retaliation), then Israel might gain the upper hand over it unless Iran soon builds nukes.