Yesterday, clashes broke out on the Afghan-Iran border. device guns, mortars and hand grenade launchers went into motion. In respective locations, the Taliban even tried to take Iranian border posts. What happens on the Afghan-Iran border and what is the genesis of the fresh clashes?
Water dispute
In 2021, the Taliban took over in Afghanistan. Although Iran has not officially recognized the Taliban government, it has extended contacts with them. Iranian delegations regularly visit Kabul, and there is an Afghan embassy in Tehran where a Taliban typical resides.
However, there is simply a periodic dispute between the Taliban and Iran. The last specified dispute arose against the background of Iran's access to the waters of the Halmand River, which has its sources in Afghanistan.
On May 18, Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi, visited the state of Sistan and Balochistan, neighbouring Afghanistan, which has been facing drought problems for a long time. During a gathering with residents, the president stated:
I inform the Afghan rulers to immediately supply the residents of Sistan and Balochistan with access to their water. We will not let our people's rights to be violated.
President Raisi during a visit to the provinces of Sistan and BalochistanPresident Raisi referred to the 1973 Afghan-Iran Treaty, which regulates Iran's access to the Helmand River, which has its sources in Hindukush and then flows towards Iran, where it flows into Lake Hamun-e Helmand.
For years, Tehran has been accusing the Kabul authorities of not respecting the treaty and providing little water to Iranians than they should. The dispute became peculiarly heated in fresh years erstwhile the drought problem in Iran intensified (now around 97% of Iran's territory is at hazard of drought), and the Afghans began building the Kamal Khan Dam on the Helmand River – the construction was completed in March 2021, months before the fall of the pro-American government.
Helmand River and Lake Hamun-e HelmandWar on Words
President Raisi's confrontational words have fallen to fertile ground – any Iranian conservatives request a forceful resolution of any disputes existing on the Tehran-Kabul line (in Iran, the events of 1998 are inactive remembered erstwhile the Taliban assassinated 10 Iranian diplomats in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif, nearly prompting Iran to invade Afghanistan).
The Minister Abdollahijan (the head of the Iranian Ministry of abroad Affairs), who stated that Iran would, if necessary, benefit from “appropriate force measures”.
Taliban officials attempted to reassure Tehran, claiming that the reduced water supply to Iran was due to the reduced water state in Helmand itself alternatively than Kabul's sick will.
Iranian T-72 tanks in 1998.Borders on fire
In specified an atmosphere, on Saturday 27 May, clashes took place on the Afghan-Iran border. In the media, headlines rapidly appeared that the Iranians and Taliban “fight for water.” However, while president Raisi's fresh statements on the division of waters from the Helmand River increased tensions in the relationship, they were not the direct origin of yesterday's clashes. The reason for the fight was much more prosaic.
Taliban patrol entered Iran's territory and began chasing down Iranian farmers who grew their fields. Iranian borderers appeared on the scene, who stood up for farmers. shortly after, there was a shooting.
The situation escalated. device guns, mortars or hand grenade launchers went into motion. In respective places, the border was crossed. The Taliban even attempted to storm Iranian border posts.
The Iranians – as better armed and well-fortified defensive points – won in these first skirmishes. However, videos of Taliban reinforcements headed for the border appeared online. It is not known whether the Taliban actually wants to usage these forces against the Iranians, or whether they simply want to show force – alternatively the latter.
Interestingly, Taliban meals are partially armed with American equipment, which was captured in 2021, including Humvee vehicles.
A skirmish is not a war yet
The current clashes on the Afghan-Iran border are not an issue. akin incidents occurred both in times of pro-American regulation and after the Taliban took over power. And, in fact, after 2021 these clashes became more frequent. The origin of the skirmish is especially common smuggling, which flourishes at the border (for example in March, Iranian borderers killed 11 Afghan smugglers).
The current clashes are not the first on the Afghan-Iran border, and will surely not be the last. However, the outbreak of the war between Iran and the Taliban is highly unlikely. As long as there are many points of contention in Iran-Talib (Iran wants, among others, to safe the rights of the Shiite number in Afghanistan or to increase its access to Afghan rivers), Iran cooperates with the Taliban in many another fields. For example, the Iranians are willing to sale electricity or oil to the Taliban – the Taliban is paying in dollars (which they have due to their narcosity). For Tehran, which has been subject to US sanctions since 2018, access to the dollar is more crucial than it might seem.
Other Border
Much bigger problems and much more possible for escalation be on the Afghan-Pakistan border.
Pakistan, who had secretly supported the Taliban for years, was very successful in 2021, installing a friendly government in Kabul. At least it might have seemed that way. It shortly turned out that the triumph of the Taliban had a very bitter taste for Pakistan. Why?
The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is determined by the alleged Durand line (designated by the British in the 19th century), which artificially divided the areas inhabited by the Pashtuns – in Afghanistan lives about 21 million Pashtuns, and in Pakistan 40 million.
The cultural map of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Visible Duranda/Border line“Afghan Taliban” is an organization dominated by Pashtuns. At the same time, it is not the only Pashtun organisation operating in the region. On the Pakistani side of the border (Duranda Line) there is simply a alleged “Pakistan Taliban“ that has been fighting the government in Islamabad for years.
Subsequent Afghan governments (also pro-American ones) refused to recognise Durand's line as an global border. Pakistan hoped that erstwhile the Taliban took over power in Kabul, a border conflict could be resolved. However, the Taliban refused to recognise Durand's line. In addition, the Taliban has intensified their contacts with the “Pakistan Taliban”.
As shortly as Afghanistan was taken over in 2021, the “Afghan Taliban” freed many of their “Pashtun kumas from Pakistan”. There are besides indications that after 2021 the “Pakistan Taliban” – utilizing the hospitality of its “Afghan brothers” – settled in Afghanistan. After 2021, there was an intensification of attacks by “Pakistan Taliban” on government forces, leading to the fact that in 2022. Pakistan even conducted limited raids on Afghanistan.
