The low level of budget gross and the budget deficit for the first months of this year is not optimistic: it is bad and it can be worse.
The complete failure of the import policy of energy carriers, and in peculiar oil, which we are bringing from the region where the regular war is taking place, justifies exceptional measures, which will besides lead to a further fall in budgetary revenue.
A simplification in VAT and excise duties has already been introduced, mainly on motor fuels, and possibly besides in the close future this will apply to natural gas. At 1 time we would buy these natural materials cheaper from Russia, and now we bear the advanced cost of "diversification" of their supplies, due to the fact that we gotta contribute to speculators who want to gain (and earn) from the war caused by our "strategic neighbour".
This is the second "package" of costs for anti-Russian policies, which we, average and invalid citizens, besides bear. The first, inactive up-to-date, involves “our war” with Russia in Ukraine. After all, we have known for over 30 years that matters of abroad policy as a consequence of the collusion of the full political class are removed from political debate and we, voters, have nothing to say here. Whoever we choose: from the “post-communist” left to the “anti-communist” right – the abroad policy of Polish governments will be the same:
* we will support unconditionally and unreflexively anti-Polish nationalisms in countries formed on the western outskirts of the erstwhile russian Union, including even worshipers of UPA and flagism,
* We will impose an embargo on our producers on exports to Russia of their products: it is better that they go bankrupt, so that they do not make money in the banned market,
* Inconclusive and unconditional hostility towards Russia is the essence of fresh patriotism: to spite Russia, we will not only defrost our ears, but we will besides lead to impoverishment of society and the unprofitable economy by buying natural materials at all highest possible price, unless the seller is simply a Russian entity (only oil or gas can come from Russia).
We know that we live in a planet of absurdity, having nothing to do with the West (which we say we belong to), due to the fact that there for centuries they have been earning on enemies and adding to protectors: in our country it is simply a bit different – we lose on enemies and protectors. Differences can only depend on whether we gotta add to the American protector or to the German (European) protector.
In the authoritative forecast, we know that the mediate East oil road, which replaced the cheap, imported pipeline from Russia (it will be even more expensive) and the cost of mitigating the effects of this increase will cost the budget up to PLN 20 billion by the end of the year. The second so much this year will should be added to the unprofitable increase in fuel prices in sectors (especially agriculture, transport).
In return for not supporting American-Israeli aggression against Iran, the US (our protector) will appear with NATO, which means it will not defend us against (as if) Russia's inevitable attack. Which, of course, does not exempt us from the work to buy from him everything that makes us buy at any price he has set. Safety has no price – right?
Prof. Witold Modzelewski
Think Poland, No. 17-18 (29.04-3.05.2026)
