The war with Iran, caused by the Donald Trump administration, turned into a strategical farce that exposed Washington's deficiency of preparation and undermined its credibility in the eyes of allies. At the same time as the president of the United States calls on China to aid open the Strait of Ormuz, Beijing resumes military force on Taiwan, sending a worrying signal about the real value of American safety guarantees.
Error 1: War Without Plan
More than 2 weeks after the start of the conflict, which raised oil prices above $100 per barrel, the Strait of Ormuz remains closed, and the Trump administration has no credible plan to open it. As Robin Mills, energy expert at Qamar Energy, Washington made a series of inexplicable mistakes: in January 2026, just before the war broke out, he withdrew the only 4 specialized trawlers from Bahrain, and their successors are untrue. Moreover, US strategical oil reserves (SPRs) are “filled” in little than 60%, which drastically limits the ability to stabilise markets. The “easy victory” over Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro may have put the vigilance of the administration at ease, which seems to be amazed by the chaos it has caused itself.
Error 2: Request for the aid of a rival
In a motion that analysts call desperate and humiliating, Donald Trump called on the platform of fact Social China, Japan and South Korea to send warships to open the Strait of Ormuz. The appeal met with a cool and evasive answer. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., Liu Pengyu, only stated that China would “enhance communication for deescalation”.
The paradox is that Iran, blocking the Strait, mainly hits US allies while allowing free movement of oil to China.
As Barbara Slavin of the Stimson Center notes, “China will not send ships, due to the fact that Iranian oil flows to China rather well.” Trump's request is so a de facto appeal to Beijing to act against its own economical and strategical interests.
Signal for Taiwan: America busy, China back in the game
While the world's attention is focused on the mediate East, Beijing sends a clear signal towards Taiwan. After more than a two-week, different break, Chinese military aviation resumed on March 15 flights close the island on a large scale – 26 aircraft were detected within 24 hours. This demonstration of force coincides with the weakening of American presence in the region – part of US Marines forces are transferred from Japan to the mediate East, and advanced anti-aircraft defence systems are transferred from South Korea to water close the Strait of Ormuz. In addition, the war with Iran consumes immense resources, including precision ammunition, crucial to the possible defence of Taiwan. We besides request to remember that all technologically advanced means of attack and defense, tracking systems, detection, all this requires uncommon earth metals. And most of these are China's monopoly.
For Taipei, this is an alarming signal that undermines the credibility of American safety guarantees. According to analyst Brian Hioe in “The Diplomat”, these fears exacerbate the fact that Trump himself publically stated that arms sales for Taiwan are being negotiated with Xi Jinping, and deliveries were halted before a scheduled visit to Beijing at the end of March.
In the eyes of Taiwan, the United States is not only active in a badly prepared war in the mediate East, but is besides prepared to sacrifice the interests of its key ally in Indo-Pacific for immediate benefits in relations with China.
Silence over Taiwan, which lasted for 2 weeks, could have been a tactical Beijing pause before Trump visited. Its violent ending, at a time erstwhile the US is active in a crisis in the mediate East, is simply a clear message: China will take all chance to increase force on Taiwan, and America's credibility as an ally is weaker than ever.
Source:
- Nikkei Asia, “Trump urges China, Japan, South Korea to send ships to Strait of Hormuz”, March 15, 2026.
- Nikkei Asia, “China’s large-scale military flights resume after universal pause, Taiwan says”, March 15, 2026.
- The National News, Robin Mills, “US consequence to the Strait of Hormuz close is becoming a farce”, March 15, 2026.
- Al Jazeera, “Muted consequence as Trump urges nations to escort ships through Hormuz Strait”, March 15, 2026.
- The Diplomat, Brian Hioe, “How Taiwan Views the US War With Iran”, 4 March 2026.
- American Enterprise Institute (AEI), “China & Taiwan Update, March 13, 2026”, 13 March 2026.
Leszek B. Glass
Email: [email protected]
