Accused of always favoring Russia, Donald Trump is doing far more than his predecessor to make the Kremlin actually feel the consequences of the sanctions imposed.
Practiced in the Western planet for many years, the policy of political conflict requires accusing the opponent of secret ties with Vladimir Putin and favoring Russia. In Europe, it is frequently applied by precisely those politicians who have maintained friendly relations with the Russian Federation for many years and have argued that it poses no threat to anyone.
Hunting for Kremlin allies
Donald Trump was the victim of this procedure as early as his first term, but after his return to office efforts to make him an ally of the Kremlin have increased even more. In the media hostile to him, almost all decision taken by the White home gains an explanation of the action allegedly motivated by the good of the east Empire, even if it is clearly different.
Certainly, Trump himself has put himself in danger of unfavorable accusations, surrounded by a group of politicians who are amazingly optimistic about Russia. His last year's election triumph would not have occurred without the usage of rhetoric hitting Ukraine strictly and removing work for aggression from the Russian Federation. However, Trump himself never left any illusions as to the way in which Putina's conventional state belongs.
Another chance to unduly attack the American president created a customs war that he started. Overzealous commentators immediately noted that the United States had imposed duties on even tiny countries, but spared Russia. Unfortunately, they lacked integrity to mention that the Russian Federation has been affected by US sanctions far stronger than any customs work for months. Russian exports to the United States stay low: over the years its value has not exceeded 10 billion dollars and in the last 2 years it has fallen below 5 billion dollars. Russia present sells less goods to the US than even tiny European countries.
Oil duties
The widely known fact is that the finances of the Russian state depend most on the sale of oil and gas. At the time of Biden's presidency, the U.S. state had at its disposal all the possible instruments to force the Kremlin to compromise – all it had to do was break oil prices by far below $50 per barrel. In order to do so, the OPEC countries had to be given an appropriate emphasis, increased extraction in the United States itself (the world's largest producer), reduced the activity of the alleged spectrum fleet selling natural material without sanctions or sparked a trade war.
Donald Trump's policy in a completely unintended way led to a fall in oil prices in planet markets. For respective weeks now, the turmoil has caused global stock exchanges to decline, to improve American bond listings, or to large declines in emerging marketplace currencies. The ricochet was besides struck by the price of oil, as the uncertainty associated with the customs storm affected the expected request for natural materials.
All of this contributed to the fact that the Russian Federation has late found itself under even greater economical pressure. For over 3 years, the war has been marked by a lasting stigma on the budget, forcing evidence military spending (which is up to 30% of the full budget), but the Russian government has learned to deal with most of the adversities. Trump's customs war demolished this "small stabilisation" while hitting currency, natural materials and stock exchange. All of this may be just a temporary confusion, but it is besides hard to imagine present a completely neutral global economy ending the current trade war.
Many people would like to see Vladimir Putin's accomplice in Trump, while his actions make the United States gain additional force in the course of peace talks. The actual strength of the American state is shown by the fact that under Trump, it was possible to unilaterally declare a customs war to the full world. The same force can besides be utilized successfully against the Russian state if it does not decision in negotiations towards the end of the war. Trump has already said respective times explicitly that he is able to lower oil prices to a level that will be deadly for the Kremlin and there is no reason not to believe that he will do so if necessary.
Room in 3 days
Although it is inactive besides early to find that this will happen, much indicates that Trump's attitude, which is not ready to make peace for the moment, will yet decision him to take decisive steps. Trump promised his constituents that he would end the conflict in express mode, but alternatively of ending the war in 3 days, he could not fulfill his commitment for almost 3 months. It is not a secret that, seeking savings and seeking to reduce inflation, he would accomplish the top success, just by removing spending on the war in Ukraine from the national budget.
The Russian Federation's budget for the current year plans that the price of Ural oil will be about 69 dollars per barrel. It is presently below $50, which in March alone has translated into a decrease in gross from the sale of natural materials by up to 17%. In the past, the price of oil has already fallen to a akin level, even in a time of pandemic or 2 years ago, but this time the United States is headed by a leader who is sufficiently consistent in his actions to bring about even more drastic declines.
The abrupt drop in global oil prices by about 10 dollars could not have been missed by the Kremlin. At the beginning of the week, even the head of the Russian central bank Elvira Nabiulin referred to the case, who admitted that the situation may be of concern. The politician of the Bank of Russia stated that, from the Russian perspective, the global trade war caused by Donald Trump is simply a major problem due to the limitations in planet trade in goods and the consequent decline in request for energy sources.
This simple dependencies of mainstream commentators for the minute do not want to notice, alternatively pushing their communicative about the allegedly favorable Russia Trump. In fact, Vladimir Putin is presently doing a large service in peculiar by the leaders of the European Union, who are seeking the top possible antagonisation of transatlantic relations to build a European national state. In addition, as is well known, Germany, France and many another countries whose elites are so fiercely critical of Trump, in fact inactive keep extended trade relations with Russia with the aid of 3rd countries.
Only a fewer years ago, the authoritative communicative of the Western states stated that the most effective fight against the "Russian gas station" was to implement the Green Deal policy, which advocated a shift distant from fossil fuels. Today, all kinds of green policies are going bankrupt faster, and the real way to win the economical conflict with Russia is indicated by Trump, who with his “drill, baby, Drill” imposes on Kremlin a pace that he will not be able to keep up.
