The NATO exit. No 1 did. Can Trump be first?

In fresh weeks, there has been a clear convergence between the US and Russia, which NATO considers the top threat to transatlantic security. Elon Musk, Donald Trump's favorite, believes It's time to leave NATO. In fact, the president of the United States (December) said he would consider this possibility: "if Europeans do not treat the US fairly."

Given Trump's approach to NATO, at the end of Joe Biden's word The law has been changed to make it hard for the president to get the United States out of the Alliance.

John Bolton, erstwhile Trump's national safety advisor, and present his staunch critic, in a fresh interview with “Bilda” indicated that the U.S. withdrawal from NATO is simply a viable option. ‘The cost to Europe of turning back America would be erratic“ He said.

Does Trump have the tools to do this?

Leaving NATO. “No 1 has done it yet”

Exiting NATO is simply a legal and political process. – Nobody's always done that before, So we're moving on an unprecedented territory. France has emerged from the military structures of the Alliance, but this is simply a completely different situation," says Interii Dr Wojciech Michnik from the Faculty of global and Political Studies at the Jagiellonian University.

Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty refers to the way out of NATO. According to it, any country wishing to leave the alliance must send a formal announcement to the United States government on this matter. It is the U.S. that should inform allies that the applicable note has been filed.

After 1 year of authoritative notification of a want to speak, membership formally expires.

“The word “formally” is key,” the expert emphasizes.

– erstwhile specified a note goes to allies, it becomes clear that we cannot trust on a country leaving NATO. The Alliance is based on common trust and help, so I will hazard saying that although it takes a year to formally leave, at the time of transportation of the note, the State loses credibility in the eyes of allies and informally ceases to be part of the alliance – he believes.

U.S. exit NATO. Act that introduced seat belts

Can the president of the United States make this decision on his own?

– There is no simple answer. The Americans themselves are not sure. – says Dr Wojciech Michnik.

American politicians feared that in the event of Trump's victory, there could be a divorce with NATO. That's why they introduced fresh laws. It's a kind of safety belt to keep a passenger from abruptly jumping out of a speeding vehicle. president Joe Biden authorized the change.

National defence Authority Act for Fiscal Year 2024, passed on 22 December 2023, prohibits the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without the consent of 2 thirds of the legislature vote or peculiar authorisation of Congress.

Interestingly, Marco Rubio – present the U.S. Secretary of State, liable for creating abroad policy – sought changes in regulations. – A horse with a row of those who predicted that even those Republicans who were so pronatavous at the time would now take water on the mouth and motion Trump. Rubio is simply a large example here – says Dr. Michnik.

Donald Trump's one-sided decision. It's possible.

However, there are doubts as to whether this bill can effectively halt the President, given his constitutional powers in abroad policy.

– You can imagine a script erstwhile Donald Trump unilaterally – citing that the president is liable for conducting abroad policy – decides to leave NATO, says the expert.

What can legislature do then?

– He can try, for example, to challenge the President's decision, and this will start a complicated conflict before the ultimate Court," he replies.

– Besides, Americans don't gotta leave NATO to make NATO very weak and de facto dysfunctional. - He reserves it.

Russia's top threat. "Events took a shocking turn"

In the past of allied relations America-Europe was not colorful.

“The United States is the main driving force of NATO. It is above all on their military capabilities that the alliance is based. And truly Alliance past is besides a communicative of American frustrationwho have said many times that Europeans are not doing adequate to strengthen common security. This was for Barack Obama's administration, but besides for Trump's first administration and Joe Biden's presidency," says Dr. Michnik.

Trump did not take NATO seriously even during his first term. Even before he was re-elected, he said in February 2024 that the United States would not defend those who themselves did not spend much on armaments.

– We remember those celebrated words of Trump: that it even encourages Russia to do whatever it wants with those who cannot defend themselves. We were expecting Trump's course, but the reality inactive surprised. – the expert admits.

– 3 weeks ago, there was a conference in Munich, where American officials desecrated Europeans. A week ago, the president of Ukraine was kicked out of the White home like he was any kind of intruder. After that, it was announced that the United States would suspend aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Moscow issued a message that the abroad policy of the United States is fundamentally consistent with Russian objectives. meantime The NATO fresh strategical Concept of 2022 says Russia is the biggest threat to the alliance and to transatlantic security. The events took a shocking turn. It should be stressed that the Alliance continues to operate as well as safety guarantees for its members. However, given the events of Trump's first months of presidency, it will be hard to reconstruct common trust within NATO under specified conditions, as concluded by our interlocutor.

Exodus USA would be the nail to the coffin of the most effective defence alliance in the world.