According to the Stockholm global Institute for Peace Research, the Swedish think tank for arms analysis, military spending in Europe increased by 17% in 2024. They've reached $693 billion. (about PLN 551 billion, counting at the current exchange rate) — even before Trump returned to office and his request that NATO rise the bar. As of 2015 Defence budgets in Europe increased by 83%.
Since the end of the Cold War, military spending has never increased as rapidly as in 2024. They grew by 9.4 percent — reaching the highest level in history recorded by SIPRI. Looking for savings to meet these ambitious plans, however, has a price that is not mentioned.
The study of the Paris Organisation for economical Cooperation and improvement (OECD) notes a 9% decline in authoritative improvement support (ODA) in 2024 among the world's richest abroad aid donors. The OECD forecasts further cuts of at least 9% — possibly even 17% this year.
"In 2024, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States reduced their authoritative improvement aid for the first time in almost 30 years," states the OECD. "If they make the cuts announced in 2025, it will be the first case in past erstwhile all 4 countries limited authoritative improvement aid at the same time for 2 consecutive years.’
The number of diplomatic corps is besides decreasing, and the president of the United States Donald Trump leads the process, reducing employment in the U.S. State Department.
Analysts fear that erstwhile industrialised economies turn distant from aid and diplomacy to strengthen their armies, hostile and unpredictable states specified as Russia, China, will step in to fill gaps in these networks of influence, returning erstwhile friendly nations in Africa and Asia against the West.
Experts inform that this is simply a danger of making the planet a much more dangerous place.
The planet will be strong
Military spending is increasing all over the Earth. According to SIPRI Chinese defence budget, the second after the United States budget, increased by 7% between 2023 and 2024. Russian military spending increased by 38%.
Partly under the concerns of European countries that Trump could abandon the alliance, NATO members agreed in June a fresh mark of 5% of gross home product (GDP) of the North Atlantic Alliance countries by 2035 intended for defence and safety infrastructure.
The arms race began before Trump returned to the White House. The invasion of Ukraine has made it an urgent precedence for the afraid countries of North and east Europe surviving in the shadow of Vladimir Putin.
One of the arguments in favour of prioritising defence against abroad aid or diplomacy is that military power is simply a powerful deterrent to possible aggressors. As the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated, announcing in March her plan to defend Europe: "The time has come for peace through strength."
Ursula von der LeyenJemal Countess/Getty Images for Global Citizen / Stringer / Getty Images
Some critics von der Leyen claim that the arms race inevitably leads to war — but past does not confirm that. At least that's what Greg Kennedy, prof. of strategical abroad policy at British King’s College London, believes. - Guns don't kill. They kill governments, says POLITICO. "The problem is that there are governments that are willing to usage military force and kill people to accomplish their goal".
Kennedy added that it would be perfect if a strong army went along with the alleged soft power in the form of solid diplomatic networks and abroad aid. However, if Europe has to make a choice, the expert believes that it should first rebuild its weakened hard force. The hazard to peace lies in how Western opponents — specified as China — May respond to a fresh Armour Race.
Few serious politicians in the EU, Britain or the United States are questioning the request for military investment in today's era of instability and conflict. The question is how to pay for it erstwhile government budgets are limited.
In this case, the second Trump word was given. Within days of taking office, the president of the United States froze billions of dollars of abroad aid. In February, he announced that he would reduce the contracts of the American Agency for global improvement by 90%.
This decision ruined humanitarian NGOs, many of which depended on American backing to operate in the poorest parts of the world.
"The current situation is more serious than ever"
According to 1 estimate, Trump's aid alone can origin 14 million premature deaths over the next 5 years, of which 1 3rd are children. Trump critics say this decision will not be forgotten in places like Sub-Saharan Africa.
In Sweden, the defence budget is expected to emergence by 18% between 2025 and 1926, which the government has called ‘historical’ investment plan. "The current safety situation has been more serious than always for decades," stated the Swedish Ministry of Defence, "and Russia is simply a multidimensional threat".
However, the Swedish budget for global improvement cooperation, which last year amounted to around 4.5 billion EUR (18 billion PLN 670 million, counting at the current exchange rate), will fall to EUR 4 billion by 2026 (approximately PLN 17 billion).
In debt France, plans to reduce the ODA budget by about a 3rd were announced earlier this year. defence measures were expected to increase significantly, despite the overall simplification in French public finances.
In Finland, which shares a long border with Russia, the improvement aid budget besides fell while defence spending avoided cuts.
The Minister of State improvement Ville Tavio, a associate of the far right populist Finnish party, claims that alternatively of backing humanitarian programmes, he wants to give private companies the chance to invest in occupation creation in poorer countries. It believes that this will aid prevent young people from leaving for Europe as illegal immigrants.
"If they do not have a job, these countries will become unstable and young people will be radicalised. any of them will start trying to get to Europe," he said. "If we aid developing countries to industrialise and make the jobs they need, we will all benefit."
Countries that limit their aid programmes besides bear long-term political costs. According to Cyprien Fabre, an OECD peace investigation and instability policy expert, erstwhile a wealthy government closes an embassy or restricts assistance to a country in request of support, relations with the receiving country deteriorate, possibly permanent.
“The countries remember who remained and who left,” says an expert in a conversation with POLITICO.
The competitors are entering this space. Fabre said Turkey increased its diplomatic presence in Africa from 12 embassies in 2002 to 44 in 2022. Russia and China besides exploit the situation erstwhile Europe withdraws from the continent. — According to the trendy planet - wide narratives, large cannons and large red buttons are the only features of power, says Fabre.
Politicians tend to see "soft force" as "weak," he added. "They realize that, in fact, it is not unnecessary erstwhile they lose it."
