In the latest edition of the weekly edition, Marcin Celiński spoke with Leszek Jażdżewski and Prof. Sławomir Kalinowski about the consequences published by Donald Trump 28 points concerning Ukraine and about the increasing hybrid threat in the region. The guests agreed that the paper combines the elements of the farce with the serious geopolitical consequences: in practice it proposes designation of territorial achievements of Russia, restrictions on Ukrainian armed forces and the exclusion of Ukraine from the position of NATO accession, which they believe would be unacceptable for Kiev and dangerous for Europe as a whole.
The speakers pointed out that Trump's initiative had a strong interior dimension: the programme's authors pointed out that the force to rapidly end the conflict stems from political and economical calculations in the US, where the cost of surviving and concerns about election results are increasing. In this context, the plan may effort to shift work for the agreement to Europe and Ukraine, and at the same time an instrument that gives Russia crucial concessions without real safety guarantees for neighbouring countries.
The European reactions, as stressed by Jażdżewski and Kalinowski, were immediate and critical: The Union and key capitals are trying to modify or torpedo the most controversial provisions, in peculiar those concerning sovereignty and the transfer of frozen assets. Experts stressed that the real defence of Ukraine requires not a declaration, but the supply of defence systems, ammunition and long-term military support — without that no paper “guarantees” would have a deterrent effect.
The debate besides brought back the historical theme: the 1994 guarantees, which accompanied the denucleation of Ukraine, were recalled and wondered how much akin promises are worth today. The guests agreed that paper guarantees without real enforcement mechanisms and without sustained military support would not be enough, and Europe must decide whether it is ready to presume greater work for the safety of the continent.
In addition to global issues, the talker besides raised the problem of interior security: interlocutors talked about the increasing scale of hybrid activities and diversions, pointing to incidents on railway routes as an example of threats to which the state and society are not full prepared. It has been pointed out that national policy frequently takes place "next to" these challenges, while they require a coordinated consequence from services, infrastructure and defence policy.
The conversation in the "Reset Weekly" revealed the dual nature of the current situation: on the 1 hand, the real hazard of geopolitical concessions and global pressure, on the another hand, the request to build applicable defence and political will capabilities to argue attempts to redefin European order. The guests agreed that the key decisions were only ahead of us and their effects would have a long-term impact on the safety of the region.
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