"Europe Fascists due to Migration Crisis". Lejb Fogelman predicts the apocalypse

Europe is falling apart due to the migration crisis. It won't be like in the Roman Empire, erstwhile Ren and hordes of barbarians froze to death. I am talking about Europe falling apart due to the fact that it is rapidly Fascisting as a consequence of the migration crisis.

Fascist Europe is emerging. It's apparent to me. We can specify fascism differently, but the fact remains that autocrats go up in Europe and liberal democracy is unfortunately in reverse.

You think fascists are already in charge in Europe today?

Of course, look at Viktor Orban. And let us leave Putin and Russia at all in this discussion, due to the fact that it is only a geographical Europe. But in this Europe, fascism has always been present after the war, even if on the margins. Look at the PRL — it was actually a fascist system, due to the fact that it was a socialism in which the end spirit was always present.

If you connect the welfare state, and that's what we have everywhere in Europe today, with something like a vendetta, then you've got fascism, only present it's called populism. But that's fascism. And he was always here somewhere.

Do you think that due to the migration crisis these populists, or what do you call them fascists, will come to power in the next countries of Europe?

If there were elections in France today, I think Marine Le Pen would win them. If this goes on, she'll win the next election.

It is very crucial to point out that, of course, we do not know if this will happen. I don't believe in determinism, but there is something like the dynamics of processes that go on in certain directions. past or past events won't tell you what's gonna happen. past can only tell you why it is, how it is. past besides allows you to observe any dynamics. If something is developing very dynamically, it is highly likely that events will proceed in this direction, at least until this flywheel stops. But that doesn't mean anything will happen.

We know, therefore, that everything has been moving very dynamically towards the acquisition of power by fascists in Europe for any time. This may not be the case, but right now everything is going this way. That's what past tells us.

Going back to France, Marine Le Pen and her father they reached 45 percent in the presidential election, and a large part of Emmanuel Macron's voters in the second circular of the final election were not his voters, but the people who voted against Le Pen. And then Macron's organization lost. parliamentary elections.

And it all happened. before the fresh French riots and before his effort to reform. Besides, the right reforms, due to the fact that the retirement age must be extended. And paradoxically, advanced school students in France They protested due to the fact that they were worried that in a fewer decades they would gotta work 2 years longer.

And we have what we have, Le Pen, who would win the election for president of France today. Le Pen is definitely a fascist for me, even though she's trying to dye a little. And who takes money from Putin.

If Le Pen wins, he wins in a democratic election.

Election alone is not the full democracy yet. This is only 1 component of democracy, although it is necessary. Democracy is based on customized and only then is democracy. The specified letter of the law does not origin democracy.

Democracy is that politicians respect the limits of the law.

Yeah, but that's not all. Democracy is based primarily on customs. Legal standards change, but as a society, we agree that certain things are simply not done. civilian society is simply a society in which a minimum percent of citizens internalise these customs, believe that certain boundaries are not crossed.

Let us call these customs a collective ethos, i.e. a collection of any basic values which in civilian society the average citizen considers to be his own.

Is civilian society in Europe incapable to halt this wave of populism or Fascism?

Not anymore, in my opinion.

Civil society is simply a group of people who compromises on the basis of common values, specified a contractual decalogue. Each of us has a separate or individual interest in any way, but to be a citizen in a democratic state, we must agree to a compromise with all another citizens. By the way, as I look at what is happening here today, I am very worried that there is no culture of compromise in Poland, but this is another discussion... I invitation you to read Andrzej Leder's Dream Revolution, which explains why this happened after the war..

Jean-Jacques Rousseau erstwhile wrote of the fact that a savage, or in a sense a man, erstwhile he is born, is innocent, is good. But that's not true. Children are not noble due to the fact that they are selfish, they want everything for themselves. But then they start increasing up, and they realize they gotta compromise due to the fact that they're not the only ones in the world.

This one. solipsismThat I was born and I'm the center of the scene, must end erstwhile I mature, erstwhile I collide with another people. likewise in society, each group has its own interests, but at the final level, all these groups must unite around this common ethos.

Look at what is happening present in Europe, but besides in the US. Is identity policy Isn't that a denial of specified a compromise? due to the fact that in my opinion, this is simply a direct negation of the request for specified compromises.

Is this increase in the importance of identity and civilian society policies in Europe linked to the migration crisis?

There are many reasons for this, but yes, the migration crisis is what strikes Europe's eventual blow, the biggest, and unfortunately possibly fatal.

Why?

Because the only consequence present in Europe to this crisis is the fascists. A fatal answer, but one.

Let us start with the fact that Europe is ageing faster present than any another continent. Japan is ageing faster than Europe, but it is 1 country, not a continent. Where are the most people born today? In Africa, of course.

There's a Stephen Smith book that shows this problem in an excellent way. Smith says this: 150 years ago there were 200 million people surviving in Europe and 100 million people surviving in the African Sahel. present there are about 1.3 billion people in Africa and only over 400 million in Europe after the brex. So the situation turned completely and dramatically.

And this difference is constantly and dynamically increasing. Moreover, in the Sahel 40% of the population are now under 15 years old and the second 40% are between 15 and 30 years old. That means there's practically no older people there. Older people are a stabilizing element, an component in that culture, which communicates past and values to younger people. And that is, or rather, a key mechanics for building communities in Africa, due to the fact that state borders are mostly artificial there. As individual drew the map, so these boundaries are inactive there today.

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"Scramble for Europe". The cover of Stephen Smith's book

It was Europeans who drew these maps.

That is precisely why I say that Europe has worked for this crisis.

So we have a situation where Europe has not given these societies the chance to build civilian elites. We have a situation where hundreds of millions of young people are eradicated from their own culture in badly-managed countries of Africa due to the fact that there is no 1 to give it to them. But they have pictures on mobile phones, where they see that people live much better in Europe, where they have jobs, money, homes and good cars.

Let's add a climate crisis to that. The climate situation in Africa is getting worse, the sun is driving people, especially from these shepherd-agrarian areas, to slums in rapidly growing, monstrously giant metropolises. Where's the climate better than there? North, Europe.

Returning to history: Europe entered Africa, virtually dug up everything that could be done, and abruptly left it defenseless, with no chance of development. Europe has not given them the chance to build modern states to make civilian society.

It was different in India erstwhile it was a British colony, due to the fact that there were only 78,000 overseers for hundreds of millions of indigenous people. India then had real local authorities. The British were just driving around to see if everything was working. Of course, this British business was violent, there was repression and bloody suppression of uprisings, but erstwhile the British left India, there was a real local administration on site.

From the first day of independency India had, for example, a corps of civilian officials.

I did. India, of course, is suffering present from the caste system. If they didn't have it, possibly India would be more powerful than China today., but it strangles their caste system, which until late has greatly slowed social mobilization.

But it wasn't in Africa. From Africa, colonists from Europe came out, and in fact they fled, and they were replaced by either radicals, mostly lazy or local military. Since the natives did not scope command positions in the colonial armies, after independence, any sergeant became lieutenant, and after the coup he accepted the rank of general or marshal. And so there arose elites that were not civilian elites.

So you think that the fact that Africa has no good politicians present is Europe's fault. And consequently, that they cannot give young people prospects for the future, forcing them to look for happiness in Europe, is besides Europe's fault. Okay?

Of course. Africa had no chance to build something that would give them a civilizational chance to develop. Europe utilized them and abandoned them. By the way, the Chinese are doing precisely the same today. They colonize Africa, but in a different way than before Europe did, not by force, but by corrupting it. Africa present is mostly ruled by thieves and corrupt thugs, and the Chinese are working with them.

Stephen Smith believes that the migration crisis is making the situation in Africa even worse, due to the fact that the most active, the most courageous people flee to Europe. Smith believes most importantly that migration from Africa, if its current dynamics persists, will most likely end with the shrinking old Europe in 2050 being inactive around 500 million people, but including over 100 million visitors just from the Sahel.

Interestingly, Smith is not a right-wing opponent of this migration, but alternatively to the left of the center, a commentator who writes in the left-wing paper "Liberation", the 1 erstwhile founded by Maoist Jean-Paul Sartre.

Why can't we take these people to Europe erstwhile they're the best? After all, we are very short of hands.

And that's weird. Of course Europe will deficiency these 100 million hands to work, due to the fact that it is Europe demographically goes down. After all, we know that there will be almost no young people in Europe in about 50 years.

How, from the fact that Europe needs these people, do you conclude that their arrival in Europe will kill our continent?

Because this is our European full paradox. Europeans request this emigration due to the fact that they do not want to reproduce themselves, but do not want it to be people from the mediate East and Africa. Europeans are afraid that specified a large injection of abroad blood into their bloodstream will spread all social and social system. I stress the word “foreign”. For Europe, aliens are people from Africa, but, for example, as it turned out, erstwhile a million Poles entered the UK, that is why Britain left the EU.

Please, the brexit did not call Poles in the Islands.

To any extent, toutes proportions wardrobesBut it was. I am not saying that Poles in the Islands caused brexit, but I am saying, and so many commentators believe, that the fear of the British against strangers, among whom the British perceived Poles, was 1 of the reasons for brexite.

I've been to Finland lately. They found a simple thought to absorb these “foreign”. They give them free education and get them a occupation on 1 condition — that they first learn Finnish. They say if you learn Finnish, you become part of this society, you become Finn.

Maybe. I know that without assimilation, no strategy can withstand this wave of immigration. After all, Poles were seen in the United Kingdom as these aliens, but as if respective million Poles entered France today, we might have a revolt of the French and a fight on the streets of Paris.

If specified aliens can be Poles, they can be African people, Catholics or non-Catholics, or anyone else. Unfortunately, anyone can be a stranger, as Albert Camus said.

At the beginning of our conversation, you called Viktor Orban a fascist, but at the same time from what you're saying it is Orban who is right about migration and it is the Polish government who is right erstwhile he says that we should not let these “foreign” people in.

I'll start with the fact that there's specified a thing as justice, but besides the irony of history. Poles did not colonize anyone there, but we will besides come to pay for these sins of colonialism.

However, there is the another side to this medal and specified thinking. The migration crisis shows that each country is starting to think separately. We think, "I don't mean that these people don't come to Europe, I mean that they don't come to me, and erstwhile they come to individual else, it's okay to me."

Either the EU is simply a borderless organization based on any common values, or it is not...

Maciej Krüger / Onet

Fogelman Leib

Do you agree that the Polish government puts a wall on the border with Belarus and Hungary puts barbed wires at their borders?

From a purely tactical point of view in Poland in the current war situation this may be necessary. That doesn't mean you can let children die cold in front of us. You must control your borders, especially erstwhile you have what you have in Europe, the migrations caused by Putin, wars, and so on. But controlling borders is 1 thing, and destroying what's inside the country is the other.

I'll ask you another way. You frequently publically emphasize that you are Jewish, and the Holocaust and what happened to Jews in Europe during the war is part of your identity...

Of course.

As you can see African exile vessel sinking off the coast of GreeceDo you think they should be rescued or not?

What are you even asking? Of course you did!

And if you were swimming next to him on your yacht, you'd save them, right?

Of course! Isn't that the basic thing we're talking about? I'm not talking about letting them drown. I am just saying that the problem is that Europe has not full prepared for this, either 1 way or the other. And that this deficiency of preparation results in a emergence in Fascism in Europe.

This is happening due to the fact that only fascists have an thought of what to do with these people. They want to shoot them, drown them, throw them away. Unfortunately, they're the only ones with an idea, no substance how hideously bad.

So it is not the migration crisis that causes Europe to fascinate, it is that Europe cannot cope with this crisis. And fascists are the only people who at least tell you how to do it. And they say you gotta shoot those people. Yeah?

Fascists say to voters: See, the plague is coming. That's the language they use, we know that. So they keep saying, "If it's a plague, if it's the only thing that can halt them, then these people must be drowned and killed.

So what's the thought of solving the migration crisis?

That's what the tragedy is, there's no good solution. I don't know, due to the fact that I can't imagine watching people drown. But what in return? possibly we request to effort to halt them where they come from, someway control this movement?

We had to give them a chance, but that is precisely what sin and tragedy of Europe is about, that it took distant these opportunities and that it will pay a lot more present than it would have cost if it had done so. due to the fact that present Europe will pay for it with its soul. It's a devil's dilemma to measurement Faust.

So you think liberal politicians can't come up with any way to solve the migration crisis than to let migrants in, which will lead to rebellion and tragedy, and yet to the disintegration of Europe, so the power will be taken over by fascists who have 1 thought — to shoot.

The Greeks invented tragedy, and the Jews invented justice. occupation suffered terribly, but he stood firm in the faith, did good, and for that he got a fresh wife and more sheep (Laughter). Elektra did something she should have done, and they killed her for it. So the Greeks came up with a tragedy, and now we have a tragedy: if you do something good, it'll turn on you or do something bad.

The thesis you put on Europe should be just as actual for America. We know, what happens on the confederate border of the USA. And yet you don't talk so darkly of America.

Not yet. America is at a safer stage, even with Donald Trump than Europe. America inactive has civilian society, although more and more divided. It is simply a national country where many powers lie in the hands of local communities, so Trump at worst could destruct the national administration, but local power will survive. Of course, America has many conflicts today...

...e.g. a debate on the right to abort, access to arms...

...or migration. The states are a state that abruptly becomes very fragile in moments of conflict of interest. Florida, Texas, California, and fresh York, however, are to any degree separate states. See what they do to migrants — any states halt them, put them on buses and send them to another states that are liberal about migration.

But you don't see fascism in America.

Of course Trump is simply a populist, but I inactive hope even he can't fascist America. The U.S. ultimate Court is present dominated by conservatives, but there are no fascists in it. He has mostly conservative views, but they do fit in the spectrum of acceptable views, although I admit that in any cases the court is unfortunately on this spectrum of ends. On abortion, I'm sure, but that all state can decide for itself.

And this is where it is possible to parallel Europe. If liberal states in America can hold their liberalism even in the Trump era while preserving their own ideological identity, any countries in Europe can decide to physically cut themselves off from the remainder of the fascist Europe.

You're talking about Scandinavia.

Yes, I believe that due to the progressive fascism of Europe, the countries of the north may unfortunately physically effort to cut off from the south of the EU, for example by ending the Schengen area and encroaching their borders. Let us remember that we had specified a precedent when, suddenly, during the COVID-19 epidemic, European solidarity froze and any borders returned. Suddenly, alternatively of acting together against the common threat, peculiar selfishness returned and most EU countries started acting separately, even closing borders. And the precedent has a thing for him to repeat.

Are they coming out of NATO, too? Finland just entered it.

On the contrary, their cooperation with NATO will increase further. The Scandinavians are already beginning to realize that Europe is besides weak to defend itself. This is, in fact, another sin in Europe — a full negligence that led to a real vassal in American security. Europe is de facto The vassal of the United States, though he hates his lord.

Wasal, Lord... Are we in the mediate Ages?

What was the feudal system? On the fact that the vassal was being robbed by a lord who defended the vassal against an external threat in return. See where Europe is today. Europe is an empty bubble. 500 million people, economy 10 times the size of Russia, population 3 times the size of Russia. And this Europe on safety issues had to de facto become the vassal of America. And I think it's fortunate that it happened, or we'd have putin here a long time ago.

The war in Ukraine showed how empty this European bubble is. In the Cold War, the Germans had thousands of tanks, present we know that if they have 100 fit, it'll be fine.

Ukraine most likely has more Leopards present than Germany.

Western Europe is de facto vulnerable. What is the primary function of the state? In the defence of borders. Who is to defend Europe's borders today? NATO. And NATO is Americans.

Even Scandinavian social democrats, so anti-American, so eager to fight what they call American imperialism, go to America present to pay tribute. due to the fact that what's the entrance to NATO? You get American safety guarantees.

Tanks, but in today's planet energy is as crucial as weapons. Let's see: large Britain, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland have adequate energy for themselves, the remainder of Europe is no longer. France has an atom, obsolete, but it does. The remainder of Europe has a serious problem here.

Now look at the north of Europe. large Britain, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, or Sweden have their energy. These countries in the North Sea form a kind of wind energy community. A wind hanza. It turns out that the North Sea may be 1 of the main sources of energy in the world, due to the fact that it is inactive blowing there and the sea is comparatively shallow. The Danes present are the world's number 1 wind technology.

So we have countries in the north that have secured safety erstwhile they enter NATO, and that have their own adequate energy sources. These are besides countries that focus on modern technologies, for which, by the way, immense energy resources are needed, which are consumed by e.g. servers. These are countries with democratic traditions, not what Germany, for example, has no democratic tradition, due to the fact that they had at most the alleged state of law. How She was trembling by law, and they didn't throw him out due to the fact that there was a recipe..

Returning to these countries of the north — they still, possibly somewhat generic, but have liberal democracy and democratic traditions. Traditions that, one more time somewhat generating, are someway derived from their Protestantism. Protestantism was 1 of the main drivers of the improvement of capitalism, and only capitalism gave emergence to a liberal democracy based on a marketplace economy. And I think it may be that these countries will stick together, further and further distant from the remainder of Europe.

You think someone's gonna start shooting migrants in Europe?

I'm afraid Le Pen might have no problem with that. I think Sarkozy was a long way from this, but someway he was heading that way, and who knows if Macron's going to be in power any second, he won't be walking the same darker way.

South Europe has a problem due to the fact that there is no confederate border. That's where the border goes, and you don't set fences on it. And Denmark can build specified a wall on the border with Germany. erstwhile they close Denmark, Sweden is closed and Finland is closed. England is on the island, they can always close the tunnel. This will consequence in inspections at airports in Europe, as they have already introduced in the United States — you will not get on a plane to America unless you have an American visa.

You mentioned earlier that Europe's tragedy is that we request immigrants to work. At the same time, we do not want to let them in. At the same time, we do not want to improvement the pension system, as Macron tried to do in France.

I do not know how to keep the current care strategy in Europe without young people who will gain it. Even the mediocre treatment strategy in Europe present provides life to 80 years. As Bismarck made his first retirement, people lived 2-3 years after retiring, now they live 15-20 years. And each year is more expensive. And who's paying for it? The kid who's gonna know he's not gonna get it.

You foretell the apocalypse.

I don't want her, I'm just talking about what I see. I remember arguing with political analysts in America before 2016, and I said that I thought Donald Trump would win the election, due to the fact that we have there, as my friend Mark Lilla wrote in his book, an identity policy, and there's no strength for a very large, disciplined group not to win. And she won. That doesn't mean I was after Trump. It was the another way around. Predicting something doesn't mean wanting it. Cassandra definitely didn't want to..

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"End of Liberalism" by Mark Lilli. A book on identity policy, referred to in an interview by Leib Fogelman

I'm talking about all of this due to the fact that I have leftover hope that this trend might turn around. Unfortunately, as I said, I feel that Europe has no good options. This is the tragedy for the full continent, and I'm saying that we've done this tragedy ourselves.

Can there be a statesman in Europe who will find another solution to the migration crisis and the people who are convinced of it?

It'd should be any miracle worker. See, people don't understand, for example, that in a minute there will be no hands to work, Although youth unemployment in Italy is tragic, so is Spain..

30% of young Italians are unemployed. I mean, work is, but they don't want to go to work that's available.

Yes, They live with Mom and Dad.. The same is actual in Spain and France. They don't want the occupation that it is, and possibly the immigrants would be doing. Here again this hellish paradox, due to the fact that we do not want specified immigrants in Europe.

Europe has besides completely failed the issue of assimilation of immigrants. The hebrew goes to America, but inactive prays in the synagogue. Italy celebrates Italian holidays, but is American. And a ghetto was created in Europe today. And the ghetto, you know, by its nature is an inflammatory point.

And it's not just in Europe. The Russians, Which is little and lessThey live in fear of the Asians. From Putin's point of view, the invasion of Ukraine was twisted and diabolically rational, due to the fact that he understands that the Russians are incapable to manage their empire themselves, but the Asians are the ones who fear and do not want them. Not only does fear feed them, but contempt. The Russians have the largest empire in the world, which is 17 million sq mi, which is almost twice as much as America, but only a fewer million Russians live on giant Siberia.

The Russians as an cultural group have completely fallen. They live 65 years, they're unhealthy, Every 5th household in Russia lives without a toilet at home. This is the fall of civilization. So Putin decided to "take" 50 million healthy, white Ukrainians, Belarusians and possibly Moldovans into Russia. And if we did, he'd take us, too.

But returning to those of northern Europe — they see it and know that if Putin had won in Ukraine, they would have been next. Therefore, while in NATO, they can start to cut off from this tragically fascist remainder of Europe.