Authors: Mikołaj Woźniak, Konrad Falkowski. Content support: Łukasz Kobierski
6.01. fresh Prime Minister of France and his future journey to China
On 6 January, the public announced that the fresh French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou I'll go. in an unspecified future to China. This is France's second announced visit to Beijing in the last fewer months. The fundamental difference in this case is the Prime Minister himself – last November president Emmanuel Macron announcedMichel Barnier went to China, but the turmoil on the French political scene led to Fall his government and thus replacing him with the aforementioned Bayrou.
The intent of the trip, unlike the head of the French government, has not changed, and what should not be a surprise is to effort to resolve or at least approach the conclusion of the ongoing trade conflict around Chinese tariffs on imports of brandy from Europe. The tariffs imposed by Beijing are linked to Union duties on Chinese electrical vehicles “China has set itself to retaliate, among others, in this industry. And the duties on the alcohol manufacture are hitting French interests to a large extent, especially the interests of French cognac producers who are afraid of immense losses. In turn, they are referred to themselves as ‘hostages” a dispute between the European Union and China.
In late December 2024, the Chinese extended the anti-dumping investigation against EU brandy, as we wrote in December "ReviewIt’s okay. ” The Ministry of Trade of the PRC decided to extend the investigation period until 5 April 2025. Is it to let the eye go to Paris, saying that both sides are able to communicate? It is very possible and can be interpreted as beginning the door to negotiations by Beijing, who invites the representatives of France to visit at the time. The first of them was Emmanuel Bonn in December, next is Bayrou, and at the end is president Marcon. It seems rather right to fishy that both visits will take place by or around April 5.
In the margins, it is worth adding that a week later, on 14 January, his first speech in the French parliament as Prime Minister was Bayrou, who, in addition to the key issues for France, besides addressed China. Name Accused it PRC to prosecute global economical dominance by flooding markets with Chinese exports. In his opinion, this has been a planned Beijing strategy for a decade: “This period China’s trade surplus has exceeded the milestone — note — [close to M. W.] a trillion dollars... It is simply a strategy that has been planned for 10 years, whose goal, consistency and intent is simply to replace our industry." possibly this is an effort to show the Chinese that the French will negociate hard. At least they'll try.
7.01. Prime Minister of Lithuania on relations with China
Since late the fresh Prime Minister of Lithuania Gintautas Paluckas, giving an interview for LRT RADIO, statedthat the renewal of relations with the People's Republic of China will not be an easy task, especially erstwhile the European Union itself is on an increasingly conflicting course with China. In his opinion, Lithuanian-Chinese relations depend not only on the national administration itself, but besides on how the EU looks at China: "Today our relations with China are defined by a common European Union strategy. The EU's relations with China are besides changing for fundamental reasons – both due to supporting China in the war on Ukraine and due to the very serious economical friction that means that Europe will surely defend its marketplace against state-subsidised goods and services originating in China." Furthermore, Paluckas compared the prospects of Lithuania's relation with China with a "bore road". Although specified a message can equally be utilized in relation to the EU-PRC relationship.
In the erstwhile edition “Review“ We besides quoted the words of the Prime Minister of Lithuania, who suggested that the Lithuanian Government under his direction would search to scope an agreement and break the deadlock in bilateral relations that has been going on since 2021, while stressing that he cannot imagine a situation in which Lithuania would beg for anything or humiliate itself. Despite this roughness and awareness that it will not be easy, the hunch suggests that this year, Vilnius's relation with Beijing will be heard not erstwhile again.
9.01. EU introduces definitive duties against titanium dioxide from China
In November "ReviewWe have described how EU associate States have approved the imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of titanium dioxide (TiO2) from China. The usage of this chemical compound can be found in many industries, including coatings, paints, plastics and paper laminates utilized in furniture.
9 January this year, European Commission Directorate-General for Trade announced the entry into force of the duties in question which are the consequence of an anti-dumping investigation. According to its results, the titanium dioxide of Chinese origin was subsidised by the People's Republic of China on the European market, which was intended to origin "a detriment to the EU industry, which employs almost 5,000 people throughout the Union".
The value of the duties varies from EUR 0,25/kg to EUR 0,74/kg. According to the Communication from the European Commission, they supply a "fair balance between the request to defend the EU TiO2 manufacture from injurious dumping and the interests of users of TiO2 in the Union who depend on this relation as natural material in their production processes".
13.01. China reports an increase in EU trade in 2024
General Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China She brags. On 13 January, China's trade results for the full past year. As described in the Chinese media, both imports and exports of the PRC increased in 2024 in yearly terms by 5%. Thus, the value of trade reached around 43.85 trillion yuan, or $5.98 trillion US, thereby setting a fresh record.
This increase was also, paradoxically, about trade between China and the European Union. Paradoxically, since the last year was an expression of many frictions and tensions on the Brussels-Pekin line, and as it turns out, the state of trade between these parties suffered modest growth. However, referring stricte to the figures, Chinese exports to the EU totalled 3675.1 billion yuan, or around EUR 489 billion, while imports from the EU to China reached 1916.4 billion yuan, and in terms of euro it is around 255 billion. Thus Chinese exports to the Union marketplace increased by 4.3% since 2023 and imports from the Union decreased by 3.3%. The overall consequence of trade is around 5591.5 billion yuan, or around 744 billion euro. "Global Times" suggests that the increase in exports reflects Europe's "strong request for Chinese goods". The second proposition is that this situation means "to revive China's trade with Europe in 2024 after a hard 2023". Commercial data indicate, that since 2022 trade between the EU and the PRC has started to drop drastically, reaching EUR 514.14 billion in the infamous 2023 erstwhile it comes to Chinese imports, and EUR 223.5 billion in exports to China. Germany continues to be 1 of the leading EU associate States that has the most lively exchanges with China. Chinese exports to Germany increased by 7.8%, while imports from Germany decreased by 9.7%. In addition, France – 2%, Spain – 4.5% and Hungary – are included in the EU country club with increased trade with Chinese.
Even if the increase in trade between the EU and the PRC last year of 1.6% is negligible, it distorts the reliability and rationality of hazard simplification policies (derisking), i.e. in a sense "child“ president Von der Leyen, for she has announced her implementation since 2023. And in fact 2023 showed in itself the effectiveness of this concept. The question is, then, whether the increase reported by the Chinese is an accident at work or the beginning of the end derisking. Both thesis and the second should be decently distanced, and the final answer will only be 2026.
14.01. Costa-Xi telephone call
14 January António Costa, the president of the European Council since 1 December 2024, held telephone conversation with PRC president Xi Jinping. This was the first specified conversation at this level between the Union and China authorities this year.
Costa praised this event through the X portal, describing the conversation as “constructive”. The speakers besides agreed that "the EU-China cooperation in addressing global problems would be a affirmative signal for peace, stableness and prosperity". He besides highlighted 2 fundamental issues for the EU in his entry: firstly, that Russia's war in Ukraine is simply a threat to planet peace, and secondly, that trade between the EU and China is very important, but the relation between the 2 parties "must be balanced and based on equal principles". Most importantly, however, Costa was the first to share information about the planned EU-China summit on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of relations. This event will take place this time in Brussels, but no information on the deadline is available at this time. The last specified summit occurred in December 2023, about which analysis can be read on the website of the Institute of fresh Europe.
More about Costa-Xi's telephone call speak China. In addition to the courteous introduction and appeal to multipolarism in modern global order, the leader of the People's Republic of China stressed that in relations between Beijing and Brussels, "there is no conflict of fundamental interests or geopolitical conflicts", and on the contrary, "both sides are partners who can contribute to each other's success". In Xi's view, China and the Union should "keep to the first aspirations of diplomatic relations, strengthen strategical communication, enhance common strategical trust and keep partnership positions". The president of the PRC besides referred to the request for common trust as economical and trade cooperation between China and the EU "is mutually complementary and beneficial". In addition, he noted that "both sides have already established a strong symbiotic economical relationship", which can be understood as a hard to break bond, which could have costly consequences. It can besides be seen from the Chinese MFA communication that Costa, for his part, has assured that the Union is ready to engage with China in dialog and consultation to resolve economical and commercial disputes. In addition, both sides should cooperate and not compete. On the issue of the war in Ukraine, more specifically, the question of Ukraine, due to the fact that the Russian attack was defined, Xi was to make his co-talker China's position in relation to "promoting peace talks".
Cui Hongjian, prof. at Beijing abroad Studies University, in Chinese “Global Times” statedthat “although there are frictions in the economy and trade, both sides inactive share the basic consensus that communication and dialog are effective ways of resolving differences”. He further added that "through joint efforts China and Europe can find reasonable solutions to strengthen the common interests of both parties". However, from the media side, namely POLITICO, releasing information about the planned EU-China summit even before the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States was a deliberate move. According to Camille Gus was this signal for Washington that the EU "wants to keep open options in relations with Beijing".
14.01. Discrimination of European medical goods on the PRC market
14 January European Commission published raport, which is the consequence of an investigation under the global Procurement Instrument concerning measures and practices of the People's Republic of China in the public procurement marketplace for medical devices. Investigation It was initiated on 24 April 2024. It was initiated in consequence to measures and practices applied in the Chinese public procurement marketplace for medical equipment, which, according to the EC, "injustly discriminate against European companies and products".
European website saysthat the study contains "clear evidence" precisely that the Chinese "in a dishonest and discriminatory way restrict access by EU medical device manufacturers to government procurement". As far as the study itself is concerned, it states that Beijing has engaged in "various forms of direct and indirect discrimination against EU medical devices and suppliers", thus causing serious restrictions and difficulties in accessing the Chinese market. The study notes that "the measures and practices favouring the procurement of national medical devices and measures and practices limiting the awarding of contracts for imported medical devices referred to in the announcement of initiation are 2 related policy elements buy Chinese products implemented by the GOC, which establishes a mostly applicable preferential treatment for contracts for home medical devices to the detriment of imported products.’ In addition, the procedure defined as "centralised and quantity-oriented procurement procedures" has been identified. It is to be based on "the acquisition of a very large number of products subject to strong competition at national or provincial level to get lower prices". The Commission found that in the course of the investigation China had conducted procurement procedures in the above-mentioned mode and this led to a crucial fall in prices. In this situation, the competition of European companies with Chinese manufacturers of medical devices, frequently subsidised by the state, was highly difficult.
The European Commission is committed to maintaining a "constructive dialogue" with the Chinese side, which (maybe) will let the dispute to be resolved. But at this point, the Commission has not been satisfactorily resolved. The study states explicitly: "The PRC has not proposed any circumstantial corrective action to remedy this serious and repeated obstruction of access to public procurement markets". The adoption of measures under the Public Procurement Instrument is so being considered. This may affect limiting or excluding Chinese bidders from public tenders in the European Union.
20.01. EU-Chinese dispute over WTO licensing fees
20 January European Commission informedthat it has asked the planet Trade Organisation (WTO) to launch consultations aimed at "the completion of China's unfair and illegal commercial practices in the field of intellectual property". More specifically, we are talking about licensing fees. According to the EC Communication, Chinese courts have been given the chance to "establish binding worldwide licensing fees for EU patents essential to meet the standard without the consent of the patent holder". This situation contributes to the fact that European advanced technology companies are forced to lower their global rates and thus make European technology available to Chinese producers at lower prices. The case concerns patents essential to meet standards (SEP) that defend the technology needed to produce goods gathering certain standards, e.g. 5G for mobile phones. Examples of European companies with SEP certificates are Nokia and Ericsson.
Moreover, in the Commission's view, this is "unlawful interference in the jurisdiction of EU courts in the field of European patents", which is besides intended to violate the WTO Agreement rules. The negotiations between the Union and China proved unsatisfactory, and so the EU decision to transfer this dispute to the WTO. specified notification shall be the first step in the conflict resolution procedure within that organisation. If the WTO consultation is not satisfactory within 60 days, The Union will be able to decision on to the dispute stage, which means that a panel will be set up to regulation on the substance at the request of the European Union.
EU Trade and economical safety Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič commented on this subject as follows: "High-tech industries in the EU must be allowed to compete reasonably and on an equal footing. If this is not the case, the Commission is taking decisive action to defend their rights. investigation and improvement are an innovation engine that gives the EU a leading function in developing future technologies and must be decently rewarded." On the another hand, it was possible for the People's Republic of China hearing"China regrets the EU decision to open the case", adding that China "obeys closely" the principles developed by the planet Trade Organisation.
21.01. Von der Leyen about China in Davos
During the yearly planet economical Forum conference held between 20 and 24 January, its vote She took president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. In her speech, she raised many issues affecting both the European and global economies. For example, she stated that the planet is facing a “great change in global affairs” and that the same planet is in the process of “a race against time” in the context of challenges specified as climate change or the improvement of artificial intelligence technology. However, what is most interesting from the position of the Review is the words concerning the People's Republic of China.
The president addressed China respective times in her speech. For example, it stated that Europe is undervalued in terms of its "capacity for invention and creativity", recognising the EU's participation in global patent applications as being comparable to the United States and China. However, the most crucial part of her speech in this context was the minute erstwhile she recalled the concept of "Chinese shock", and the opinion that after more than 20 years we are witnessing a second installment of this phenomenon. The first "Chinese shock" was caused by China's entry into the WTO in 2001, the second, as Von der Leyen notes, takes place "because of state-sponsored overcapacity". This is why the Union has taken steps specified as customs duties on Chinese electricity. But the EU is not alone in this action, and Von der Leyen cites that "all over the world, including in the Global South, defence measures in trade are being adopted as a consequence to Chinese marketplace distortions". However, attention must be paid to the fact that EU officials have repeatedly stressed the desire to engage in dialog with Chinese and, above all, "constructive" dialogue. The jubilee year 2025, according to Von der Leyen, in EU-China relations, can be “an chance to engage and deepen our relations with China and, where possible, even to grow our trade and investment links”. At the very end of this part, she stressed that the European Union must build relations with the People's Republic of China on the basis of honesty and reciprocity, as this will let for sustainable relations with the mediate State.
Speech by the Head of the European Commission commented Chinese website via “Global Times”. According to Chinese expert Zhao Junjie of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Von der Leyen presents contradictory views on the PRC, which is to reflect the ‘EU dilemma in its policy towards China’. In developing this idea, the EU notes that, on the 1 hand, the EU is following the US restraint strategy and, on the another hand, the Union is besides "taking its own interests into account as it acknowledges that engaging in fierce competition with China has caused crucial harm to the EU itself". Another cited expert, Feng Zhongping of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated that the European Union should rethink its approach to economical cooperation with China, taking into account the fresh circumstances "and not attribute average business competition between China and the EU to another factors". Furthermore, he said that "if the EU manages to scope a consensus with China on this issue, there will be more area for cooperation, given the complementary benefits of both parties".
23.01. Friedrich Merz on investing in China
Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU), most likely the winner planned for the 23rd February parliamentary elections in Germany and future German Chancellor, 23rd January in a not necessarily flattering way He said on China and investment in China. Namely, he warned German companies that investing in China was a ‘high risk’ and those who took specified a hazard should not anticipate German aid under his direction. During his speech in Berlin, he besides expressed his "most sincere request" towards German business: "Limit the risks you take to avoid endangering your own company if it turns out to be an immediate failure." As far as China itself is concerned, 1 more conviction by Merz should be cited. He stated that China is part of a fresh "evil axis", more specifically an "autocracy axis", aimed at revising the liberal global order: "We are dealing with nothing more and nothing little than a rematched, anti-liberal axis of states that openly seeks to compete with liberal democracies".
Analyzing the above statements of the possible German Chancellor, 1 might be tempted to say that he will be putting on a tougher policy towards China, unlike Scholz, and will besides defy (or at least try) the force of lobbying German business, especially automotive. It so appears that the president of the European Commission will find an ally in Merzu in implementing the hazard simplification policy for China. If things turn out this way, it is very possible that effectiveness derisking will receive fresh air and China will experience further difficulties in expanding to the European market. Although the words of politicians should never be taken for granted, the future can bring many variables that will be able to turn the current strategies up to 180 degrees.
23.01. Chinese car giants sue the European Commission
The ‘Big Three’ of Chinese automotive industry, namely BYD, Geely and SAIC, She did The court operates against the European Commission and its duties on Chinese electrical cars. These companies initiated proceedings within the ultimate Court of Luxembourg. There have not been besides many details made public, but the main concerns about EU duties are the perception of any funds as subsidies, the way grants were calculated and the fact that they were harmful to the European market. Furthermore, its complaint was besides lodged by the Chinese Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, which informed Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU. besides Tesla and BMW Powered the ranks of the Chinese ‘great three’. It can be expected that SAIC will be the most combative company, on which the highest customs value was imposed, due to the fact that as much as 35.3%.
The European Union appears to be certain of its rations regarding the tariffs imposed and will defend itself in court against the arguments of the adversaries. This is confirmed by Olof Gill, a spokesperson for the European Commission, who stated: “We take note of this and we will be ready to defend ourselves in court.” In a somewhat different tone, Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, in charge of trade and economical security, besides spoke a fewer days later. During his speech in the European Parliament predictedthat the established cases will only exacerbate the conflict as they could undermine Chinese attempts to agree minimum import prices for electrical vehicles. In addition, he said to the defendants: “You should not sue individual if you want to negotiate. So let's see how this unfolds.” And in fact, at this point, all that remains is to anticipate where this case will turn out.
27.01. EU suspends WTO dispute with Chinese again
In 2022, the European Union filed A complaint to the WTO regarding trade restrictions imposed by China on Lithuania after Taiwan's representation in Vilnius was opened by that country. China, which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, introduced trade restrictions on Lithuania, which prompted the EU to take legal action.
In January this year, the suspension period ended and the Union had to decide what to do next. The case was originally suspended for a year, but in the second half of January this year the EU decided to suspend it Continue. However, it was then possible to suspend proceedings again shortly to gather additional evidence. The decision to reopen the WTO case may be linked to force from the United States that encouraged the EU to proceed its proceedings against China. However, the EU again on 27 January 2024 suspension WTO dispute with China for method reasons. European Commission spokesperson translated the situation as follows: "This is simply a procedural step taken for method reasons, linked to the request to measure certain elements resulting from the preparation of written speeches". The European Commission is to monitor whether Chinese sanctions proceed to affect Lithuania. Furthermore, the Commission provided the Lithuanian side that ‘the EU remains determined to argue all coercive measures by 3rd countries’ and that ‘the EU will decide on further steps on the basis of its monitoring of the situation’
