Escalation in the mediate East: Larry Johnson predicts U.S. withdrawal from war with Iran

• uncut-news.ch 17 March 2026.uncutnews-ch/escalation-im-nahen-osten-larry-johnson-sieht-usa-im-iran-krieg-auf-dem-rueckzug

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson in his fresh analysis presented a grim image of the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran (as of March 2026).

According to Johnson, the U.S. side bears immense losses—including the KC-135 tanker aircraft being shot down by Iranian or allied forces—while Iran maintains a strategical advantage despite intense bombings.

Johnson describes The United States as a ‘sinking’ who started a war he cannot win. He claims Iran has taken control of the conflict and economical consequences (oil prices, inflation, fertiliser shortages) They can knock the West to its knees faster than military resources.

The alleged shooting down of a KC-135 aircraft: Pentagon lie?

Johnson devotes quite a few attention to the plane crash KC-135 Stratotanker over Western Iraq (March 2026).

Officially, the U.S. military (CENTCOM) describes this as a “catastrophe” in which all six crew members were killed. Johnson thinks this relation is deliberate cover-up.

The aircraft was flying at a unchangeable altitude (approximately 20,000–25,000 ft) in good weather – spontaneous collision due to mechanical failure, cargo shift or sandstorm was so unlikely. Typical crash scenarios happen during takeoff or landing, not during flight.

He points out that an Iraqi opposition group (iran-nah) took work for shooting down the plane.

Johnson sees a pattern here: The Pentagon deliberately minimizes the number of victims to avoid compromising public support.

Indirect evidence of advanced losses is seen in reports from US military hospitals.

4 March 2026 . Landstuhl Regional Medical Center (Germany) – central contact point for injured from areas affected by the crisis – The maternity ward is closed.to focus on its “basic task” (injured in combat).

At the same time, a close base in Kaiserslautern called for blood donation.

Large buses for medical transport noted in Andrews Air Force Base , carrying patients to Walter Reed infirmary (Bethesda).

All this indicates A large, hidden number of victims.

Massive U.S. losses: destroyed bases, ships and tankers

Johnson lists further failures:

• Bloomberg Agency reports that about half of Iran's rocket launchers are intact and hard to find – hidden in mountains and tunnels.
• Reports of fires on USS Gerald R. Ford and reverse USS Abraham Lincoln After fighting a tiny Iranian boat.
• Destruction at least five KC-135 tankers on the ground in Prince Sultan (Saudi Arabia) and 1 shot down over Iraq – full of seven, which seriously limits the anticipation of refueling in the air.
• At least 1 American base It has completely exhausted its air defence systems – soldiers are not now protected from drones and rocket missiles.

The first days after the US attacks (including after killing high-ranking leaders) Iran destroyed radar installations liable for early informing and coordination .

Bases in Bahrain (5th U.S. Fleet) , Qatar (Al Udeid) , Saudi Arabia and United arabian Emirates they've been badly damaged.

Bahrain is practically useless, Prince Sultan ‘decimated’ .

As a result, Israel is mostly blind to incoming rockets (warning time is only 1-2 minutes ).

The US air advantage is illusory, as Iran responds to it with mobile systems specified as 358 rocket.

Why a land invasion is Impossible

Johnson believes the announced deployment 2500-5000 Marines is pointless and suicidal.

Such troops would gotta land a ship – within scope of Iranian rockets and drones.

Even if the landing had succeeded, soldiers would be at hazard – without bunkers, with limited amounts of ammunition and supply problems (water, food, ammunition).

Iran is huge; actual control requires 3–4 million soldiers – with catastrophic losses caused by drones, artillery and infantry.

It compares to 2003 (invasion to Iraq) :

During this time, in Kuwait/Saudi Arabia, it could march without hindrance 160,000 soldiers.

Today, a gathering of troops (as in Ukraine)) it death conviction with drones .

Old practice script of American peculiar forces (before 16-17 years ) over which Johnson had exercised supervision, has already shown:

The invasion of Iran to destruct its atomic facilities is unrealistic.

Iran strategy: control of the Ormuz Strait and economical pressure

Johnson says Iran dictates the conditions of war.

Due to partial closure of the Strait Ormuz (A 3rd of the world's oil and fertiliser flows through it), oil prices are rising (almost 100 USD/barrel ) and prices of diesel and petrol are rising rapidly (in the USA +70 cents/galon in a short time).

Global fertiliser shortages during the sowing period in the north will lead to food shortages and stagflation over time 6-7 months .

Iran demands abolishing all sanctions as prices for normalization.

Johnson: Iran has led the planet to the same situation as it had before — poorness and poverty.

The benefits of allies like Russia and China .

Gulf States ( Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar ) felt betrayed by the US and turned increasingly towards Russia and China.

New leader and atomic option

Johnson underlines the function of the fresh president of Iran, Chamenei bridge (sin of Ali Chamenei).

“The Warrior-Prophecy” who fought in Iraq-Iran War (from the age of 17) – unlike Western “happy sons”.

He is determined and respects death.

Johnson advises Iran (in game explanation analysis):

Secretly build atomic weapons and then uncover them – how North Korea .

This creates a deterrent effect and prevents atomic attacks by Israel or the US.

Conclusion: The war ends due to U.S. exhaustion.

The conflict will not end with US bombings ( 30,000 targets ), but an economical panic and exhaustion.

Iran holds the U.S. “by balls” (Johnson quote).

Trump is lying about the surrender of Iran.

The United States has lost control of the situation and is risking geopolitical breakdown in the mediate East.

Johnson analysis (published, among others, on the website sonar21.com ) is provocative and is in sharp contradiction with authoritative US reports.

It reflects a skeptical, anti-interventionist approach that is reflected in alternate media.

War continues ( third week, March 2026 ..and accompanied by continuous attacks by Iran and global economical turmoil.