The escalation of the trade war between China and the US: developments

chiny24.com 2 months ago

In fresh days, trade relations between the United States and China have entered a new, threatening phase of confrontation. Donald Trump's administration, continuing with the American First policy, imposed further advanced tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with extremist retaliatory measures. In just a fewer days, both sides have repeatedly increased tariffs, leading to the most serious escalation since the start of the 2018 trade war.


The beginning of the fresh phase: “The Day of Liberation” of American Trade

On 3 April 2025, president Trump announced extended customs duties on imports from China, calling this day ‘Liberation Day’ American trade. The fresh tariffs were of a two-step nature:

  • Base rate 10% for all countries,
  • Additional retaliatory duties (e.g. 34% for China, 24% for Japan, 25% for South Korea) for countries accused of "unfair practices", specified as exchange rate manipulation or non-tariff barriers.

Trump justified the decision by having to defend American manufacture from “unfair competition” and announced Returning production to the USA. Vice president J.D. Vance compared dependence on inexpensive labour abroad to ‘drug’, stressing that the White House's goal is relocating supply chains.


Chinese Response: Symmetrical Impact and Sanctions

Beijing did not leave the U.S. action unresponsive. On 3 April China announced ‘contracting’and a fewer days later they introduced:

  • Additional tariff of 34% au all goods from the USA (since 10 April),
  • Control of exports of uncommon earth metals (key to high-tech industry),
  • Black List of 16 American Companies (among others, advanced Point Aerotechnologies, Sierra Nevada Corporation), prohibiting them from accessing Chinese technology,
  • Suspension of food imports from selected American producers (e.g. Mountaire Farms).

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused the US of ‘unilateral intimidation’ and lodged a complaint to WTO, arguing that fresh duties violate global trade rules.


Further escalation: Customs increased to 84%, then to 125%

Beijing announced White Paperin which he condemned US policy and raised the work rates to 84% for American goods. This was a consequence to Trump's earlier tariff increase from 34% to 84%.

However, The most drastic decision occurred on 9 April. After China showed no signs of concessions, Trump increased customs duties on Chinese goods to 125%Calling it a reaction to "China's deficiency of respect for planet markets". In a post on fact Social he wrote:

"In view of China's deficiency of respect for the world's markets, I am raising customs duties on Chinese goods to 125% immediately. I hope that China will shortly realize that the days on which the US and another countries cheated have come to an end."

At the same time Trump announced 90-day suspension of customs increases for another countries (while maintaining rates of 10%) to give them time to negotiate.


Effects on the global economy

  • Exchanges reacted violently – Dow Jones index jumped by 2500 points Following the announcement of a "pause" in increases for another countries, but long-term concerns about recession They stay.
  • Inflation and disruptions in supply chains – Higher duties mean more costly products for consumers and companies.
  • Risk of fragmentation of global trade – EU imposed 25% of duties on American products (e.g. soya, steel, aluminium), which shows that the conflict goes beyond the USA-China relationship.

Will 1 of the sides give way?

A trade war entered open confrontation phasein which both the US and China apply maximum force strategy. Trump, raising duties to 125%He made it clear that he was not going to yield. Beijing, in turn, despite the threat of serious economical losses, does not show any signs of concessionsfocusing on market diversification and strengthening your own economy.

Key questions for the coming weeks:

  1. Will China opt for further tightening of sanctions, e.g. full embargo on key American products?
  2. Whether U.S. allies (e.g. EU) accept a fresh protectionist order or whether it will happen wide rebellion against Trump's politics?
  3. Is global recession will force the parties to negotiate, or will the conflict proceed to deepen?

One thing is certain: US-China trade war has just reached a fresh dangerous levelAnd its effects will be felt by the full world.

Leszek B. Glass

Email: [email protected]

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