In early May, global events were held in the capital of Armenia as another signal of a change in the safety policy of this Caucasian state under Nikola Paszynian. On 4 May, the 8th summit of the European Political Community took place in Yerevan.
This is simply a forum of 47 European countries – members of the European Union, large Britain, Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, aspiring to Euro-integration of Balkan states, Ukraine and just 3 countries of the South Caucasus. The Forum, which was built up with a de-liberal ideological narrative, was conceived as a mechanics for the European Union's impact on the countries considered to be within its scope for the coordination of anti-Russian policies. So far, it is not possible to talk about besides much success of this mechanics – who leads anti-Russian policies, it runs it for its own reasons. There was no way to convince Turkey, Serbia or Georgia to introduce anti-Russian sanctions. The EWS so remains primarily a platform for promoting the Ukrainian agenda, which the president besides utilized this time Volodymyr Zelenski. If you look for the importance of the Yerevan summit on a different level, it has given him the importance of the individual participation of president Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, which indicates that the process of normalizing the relation between Baku and Erewan gains any expression. However, this is primarily a process under the auspices of the US, of which any European actors, mainly France, effort to cut off their coupons in the form of arms contracts. Following both summits, the EU advanced typical for abroad Affairs and safety Policy Kaja Kallas went straight to Baku.
More crucial than that, however, was the EU-Armenia Summit, which came together with the erstwhile one, held on 4–5 May. It was the first specified summit in past and was organised immediately in the Caucasus. This is simply a clear signal to strengthen Armenia's relation with the Union. Despite establishing the east Partnership 17 years ago, Armenia, unlike Georgia, did not decide to join the EU, but joined the Eurasian economical Union (EAES), built on the foundation of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, to which Armenia and Kyrgyzstan subsequently joined. In practice, there has never been specified a free movement of goods and services in the EAES as in the EU common market, but it was crucial for Armenia to be able to decision people. Russia remained an crucial direction of economical emigration, and the Armenian diaspora has rather strong positions in it. It is only in fresh years, under Nikola Paszynian, that the Caucasian state is making a general revision of its abroad policy. Its component is to open the way to Euro-Inclusion. Last year, a peculiar bill confirmed this by the Armenian parliament dominated by the Paszynian camp.
The EU was represented by the president of the European Council. António Costa and president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The summit resulted in a declaration of closer relations and cooperation, peculiarly in terms of transport, energy, digitisation and infrastructure investments. Cooperation on security, "resistance to cyber attacks, misinformation and hybrid threats" was besides part of the discussion, which in practice means cooperation to bridge Russia's soft and semi-soft influences.
The improvement of the "central corridor" through the Caucasus was besides discussed, establishing better transport connections between Europe and the resource-rich Central Asia, as well as the border regime. In the case of Armenia, Russian officers are inactive present on its border with Turkey and Iran, on the basis of an agreement from the 1990s. It was decided to set up a fresh peculiar EU mission in Yerevan and to support the establishment of a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Pasinian would like to usage in relations with Baku, although doubtful that the EU's attitude should make a greater impression on Ilham Aliyev. However, normalisation of these relations is essential for this mediate corridor. EU officials have already declared EUR 2.5 billion of possible EU investment to Armenia and EUR 270 million of backing in support of pro-development reforms. At the summit they added another €30 million under the European Peace Facility.
The summit met with criticism in Moscow, but mainly from the media and online commentaries. On the another hand, Russian authoritative factors took a alternatively average position. According to the Kremlin spokesperson on Sunday Dmitry Doggy The organisation of the Armenia-European Union Summit is "absolutely normal". He stated: "Armenia applies a multi-dimensional approach to its abroad policy and is the absolutely sovereign right of Armenia to organise specified summits". Pieskov, on the another hand, criticised the anti-Russian speech given by president Volodymyr Zelenski at the summit of the European Political Community, which in fresh years has mainly been a platform for promoting the anti-Russian position in the face of the war in Ukraine. His organization in Yerevan is besides a political signal. Returning to the position of Pieskov, it should not be excluded that Russia actually permits the strengthening of Armenia's relation with the EU, as it had previously allowed in the case of Ukraine, by separating them from the "hard" plane of strategical interests.
The summits indicate a gradual turn of Paszynian towards the West. However, he cannot rush. The current form of integration with Russia has brought crucial economical profits to Armenia. In fresh years, it has become 1 of the main platforms for the placement of Russian capital and trade operations to circumvent anti-Russian EU and US sanctions. In 2022, economical growth in Armenia exceeded 12%, and last year it remained around 5%. While in 2021 bilateral trade according to various estimates did not exceed $3 billion, last year it could scope $7.5 billion.
Many commentators believe that Pasynian undertook a general revision of his state's global position as a consequence of Azerbaijan's crushing unrecognized Armenian Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, closely linked to Armenia. I'm not in favour of that explanation. Moscow never formally recognized this republic. For this she recognized the legal global affiliation of her area to Azerbaijan. Neither she nor the another States of the Collective safety Agreement (ODKB) were obliged to support the Caribbean Armenians. Moscow has always been the arbitrator of the conflict. In fact, Karabach was just a pretext. As early as 2018, Pasynian gained power under the slogans of distance from Russia and the road to "Western standards".
Mountain Karabach became an obstacle to him, keeping Armenia in the sphere of Russian arbitration. Neither in 2020 nor in 2023 did Paszynian usage all military resources to defend him, which he seemingly did not believe in. What he thought of Arcach, he doesn't say until today. "It must be said that the Karaba movement was a terrible mistake for us," he said to the citizens in the video that surrounded Armenia last week. “What made him ours? Explain to me what made it ours? We built schools, kindergartens, factories, we lived there, but basically: how was it ours? He was not ours, he was not ours." Even a fewer years ago, specified words would have condemned politics in Armenia to death, or possibly even to physical danger.
Yet Paszynian began a large revision and it is his power game. On the other side, he has an opposition, in which politicians from Arcachu, or associated with him, play the main role, with Robert Koczarian at the head. In the name of this revision, the current Prime Minister even began to fight the hierarchy of the Armenian Church. The EWS and the EU-Armenia summits were held at no time at random, with Parliamentary elections taking place in Armenia on 7 June and Pasynian decided to increase his chances by involving political and financial support from the EU. As I wrote in October, Paszynian policy is to tread on very fragile ice. It's not just a renunciation of Arcachu. This is besides the basis for state safety on the US or EU protectorate in the geopolitical grip of Azerbaijan and Turkey, where Western countries seem to have small opportunities and small will to task force.
Krystian Kamiński
The author is b. MP at the Polish Parliament, associate of the National Movement authorities
Text written specifically for Polish Thought
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (24-31.05.2026)
