In a twelve election committees, there may have been amazing mistakes in counting votes in the second circular of the presidential election. Mistakes – although fewer – could have led any votes to the incorrect candidate. Who benefited? Statistical analysis leaves no doubt.
In the second circular of the presidential elections in Poland, there were mistakes in reporting results in respective committees. According to the analysis of Jakub Kubajek, an analyst of statistical data, out of respective cases of mistakes – 7 of them favored Karol Nawrocki and six favoured Rafał Trzaskowski. Although these inaccuracies would not change the final result of the vote, they item the request to increase the precision and transparency of the full electoral process.
Errors in favour of both candidates
Analyst noted that any committees most likely switched the results of the 2 main candidates. specified mistakes took place in Krakow (Commission No 95) and in Minsk Mazowiecki. In the second case, the mayor of the city, Marcin Jakubowski, openly admitted that there had been a misallocation of votes – the committee reversed the results of both candidates. The president of the committee himself admitted his mistake.
Kubajek, who picked up the anomaly in the data, indicates that 21 results of the regional commissions were importantly different from the remainder – this is the so-called. protrusion observations in statistical analysis. In his opinion, as many as 13 committees most likely made a mistake, and in 8 another cases the results are sufficiently different to require additional verification.
Mistake effect? About 2,000 votes of difference
Having respect to all suspicious cases, Kubajek estimates that the difference between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski would decrease by about 2,000 votes. This would inactive not importantly affect the consequence – let us remind that in the end Karol Nawrocki obtained 10,606,877 votes, and Rafał Trzaskowski – 10,237 286, which means an advantage of over 369 1000 votes for the winner. More than 32,000 committees participated in the vote.
Strange results in Mokotów
The consequence of commission No 113 in the territory of Mokotów in Warsaw raised peculiar doubts. Trzaskowski received almost 93 percent of the votes there, and Nawrocki only 136 – only 2 more than in the first round. This is unusual, especially since together the Mentzen and Braun candidates obtained 176 votes there earlier. The analyst estimates that there may have been a mistake in this committee of 346 votes in favour of Trzaskowski.
Despite these doubts, the typical of the "Nawrocky 2025" Election Protection Movement does not intend to make an authoritative protest on this matter. In her opinion, it is hard to talk about intentional forgery in an 11-member committee – alternatively about possible individual irregularities.
Where else could there be mistakes?
The confusion besides concerns the town of Magnuszew in Mazowsz. Although Karol Nawrocki won there on a municipal and region scale with a score of nearly 70 percent, in 1 of the agrarian commissions Trzaskowski unexpectedly triumphed. Local PiS activists who analyse whether there was a mistake took care of the case.
A strategy that detects bugs?
Jakub Kubajek emphasizes that while the current strategy has safety features, errors inactive happen. According to him, any of them consequence from inadvertently replacing names erstwhile prescribing protocols or errors during counting. He does not fishy counterfeiting, but indicates that PKW should carefully analyse what went wrong.
The analyst besides argues that it is possible to make a strategy that automatically detects anomalies – comparing the results of individual committees with the results of their immediate surroundings. specified a mechanics could immediately signal data requiring verification.
Electoral protests are increasing
A spokesperson for the National Election Office, Marcin Chmielnicki, recalls that any individual suspected of a mistake may protest or notify the prosecution. The court may then order the recalculation of the votes – all the cards are secured and can only be opened by decision of the court or prosecutor.
By June 9, 41 electoral protests had already been received at the ultimate Court, including 13 fresh ones since June 5. However, no of them concern the errors identified by Kubajek.
Source: Virtual Poland
