Erdogan turns towards autocracy. Expert on mass protests in Turkey. ‘The Authority may introduce a state of emergency’

Inside the EU, we do not have 1 policy against Ankara. Turkey manages migration across the Mediterranean, making any countries more curious in maintaining unchangeable relations with Erdogan.

As far as the United States is concerned, Turkey is inactive waiting to deliver purchased upgraded F-16 fighters (and a full mass of another equipment). The United States is of large importance to Turkey, and it is besides under real pressure, specified as the supply of weapons.

President Erdogan closely followed the global consequence to his actions. erstwhile he missed it, he could focus on interior politics.

"Turkish authorities know they can take action without major consequences"

In this context, how do you measure Prime Minister Donald Tusk's fresh visit to Turkey? According to any commentators, an EU delegation has dared Recep Tayip Erdogan to take action against the opposition. Does uncovering the connection between Donald Tusk's visit and the Turkish home situation make sense?

I think this thesis is very far-fetched. I wouldn't look at Visit of Prime Minister Tusk a origin that has led to interior inflammation. Poland does not substance that much. Of course, our Presidency in the Union is crucial on the basis of emphasising priorities, but president Erdogan is called "teflon Tayyip" for a reason, an experienced politician who realises that Turkey's chances of joining the European Union were not great. Now they're down.

On the another hand, it is likely that the global situation may have affected the conduct of Turkish power. Turkey as a state that can mediate between Russia and Ukraine has a strong position. It affects what is happening in the Black Sea, in Syria, and needs Europe and the United States. In the United States, Trump rules, and he is not curious in Turkey's interior affairs. And that could have contributed to Imamoglu's arrest.

Ugur Yildirim/ dia images via Getty Images / Getty Images

Protesters in Istanbul hold a banner with the image of Ekrem Imamoglu, 19 March 2025.

The X portal, owned by US president Elon Musk, blocked opposition and opposition media accounts at the request of the Turkish government. Do you think this is an American bow to Erdogan?

Of course. The Americans respect what the government says in Ankara. The Turkish opposition has repeatedly informed about the blocking of accounts of even those people who do not live in Turkey, including journalists residing in Germany. 700 accounts were blocked on platform X itself at the request of the government in Ankara.

Erdogan sensed the right minute and plays the West. He's taking a sharp course due to the fact that he knows he can afford it. The Turkish authorities know that they can take action without major consequences from the global community.

"Protests spread to all provinces in the country"

These actions include arrests of opponents, detention of the mayor of Istanbul, protests, and a raid on journalists. Where should we look at the beginnings of the crisis in Turkey?

Since October there have been talks with Kurds. Kurdistan Workers organization leader Abdullah Ocalan called for ceasefire in conflict with Turkish authorities. Now we see that normalisation of relations with Kurds is linked to the process of dealing with opposition.

The Turkish authorities wanted to break up the unity of the opposition, weaken the possible opposition of the Kurds, and lead the opposition groups to look at each another with large distrust.

At the same time, the government camp had been tightening the screw for months, with further opposition mayors being recalled and replaced by folk commissioners.

On the 1 hand, the leader of the Kurds has agreed to a ceasefire, but on the another hand we observe that the Kurds are joining ongoing protests.

They join in, but they didn't do it right away. It wasn't apparent at all. Let us remind you of precisely what led to the outbreak of the demonstration.

On Tuesday 18 March, a university diploma was received from the leading opposition politician Ekrem Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul. He was thus effectively prevented from moving for office in the presidential election, which will take place in 3 years, in 2028. Turkish law requires that the candidate for the highest office in the state have a higher education.

The substance is, of course, controversial. Istanbul University cites the transfer of Imamoglu from 1 university to another, which took place 20 years ago. It should be mentioned that Imamoglu was to be announced as a presidential candidate for the opposition of the Republican People's organization (CHP) on Sunday 23 March. The irony of this full situation is added by the fact that Erdogan's university diploma was repeatedly contested.

The university rectors are appointed by the government, thus this situation illustrates how authorities deprive universities of autonomy.

The following day, on Wednesday 19 March, Imamoglu was arrested in the morning.

And with him, 106 another people, not just the opposition. Then the protests broke out. Wednesday, we didn't know who would be active in the demonstrations. A MP for the Procurdian People's organization of Equality and Democracy (DEM) blew up protesters in parliament. It was unclear how the remainder of the opposition would react.

At the same time, Nevruz was celebrated in Turkey, the festival of spring, which is celebrated by Kurds, among others. There were voices from nationalists that they would not show with the Kurds. Power besides tries to break the unity of the demonstrators at all costs, which is very easy, given the diversity of the Turkish political scene and the moods within the country.

The Kurds and nationalists yet joined the demonstration, and protests have spread to all provinces in the country.

Umit Turhan Coskun/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images

Fighting with police during protests in Istanbul, 23 March 2025.

“Power does not hesitate”

Which means the opposition is in line. But will he be able to succeed? The object of opponents, as many experts point out, may be to organize accelerated elections.

This will be very difficult. At this point the opposition was placed against the wall. But more and more Turks are out on the streets, even though police brutality is increasing. Emotions in the country are very big.

He protestes many young people, students. For example, on Monday 24 March they blocked the Galata Bridge, a key artery in Istanbul. However, there are besides another Turks who simply do not want to lose the right to make political choices at the ballot boxes. They do not like the direction in which the Justice and improvement organization (ACP) policy goes in this regard. In addition, it is besides about the fact that the Turks' material situation is getting worse, and the chance of a decent life in Turkey is decreasing.

The key question is: what will Erdogan do?

The president doesn't want an accelerated election. If we look at the polls after the protests started, the support for the ruling organization is decreasing. Erdogan will want to wait out the current demonstrations, utilizing all the forces and means.

He can force tv to halt broadcasting from protests, threatening to punish them and withdrawing his license. More journalists are being detained. A state of emergency may be introduced or war, though in a situation where an army would be brought out on the streets, it would besides be a major challenge for the authorities.

It besides depends a lot on what the police and the military will do. The opposition will do anything to keep the current unrest as long as possible.

How many protests are present compared to erstwhile demonstrations?

They are surely the largest since 2013, i.e. since protests in Gezi Park. It is said that during the protests on the weekend of 22-23 March, 1 million people came to Istanbul streets, although this is very hard to estimate. Both sides manipulate numbers.

However, it is evident to the bare eye that crowds are protesting. The coverage of the demonstration on Friday 21 March saw 3.5 million people on platform X alone. Media reports that protests happen in 55 in 81 Turkish provinces, besides in the bastions of the ruling party.

I stress that only those who vote for circumstantial opposition groups do not go out on the streets. Many simply want to express their discontent with the situation in the country. The Turks appreciate their right to vote. And they fear that in 3 years, that is, erstwhile the next elections take place, they may lose that right.

However, let us not let Erdogan escape from all of this, that Erdogan besides enjoys his support. In the last election, he managed to mobilize the electorate.

"There is no uncertainty which direction Turkey is heading"

So, how much do the Turks appreciate democracy, will Erdogan not be afraid of exacerbating repression?

From the position of power, protesting students are peculiarly dangerous. There are many of them, they are educated, and there are no consequences for all. On the another hand, power fears the outflow of young people and the brain drain, which, by the way, is already at its best. due to the fact that young Turks, even those supporting the ACP government without seeing their prospects, are trying to leave Turkey. Especially these well educated people hope for a better life in Europe.

Are we inactive dealing with democracy in Turkey?

More and more experts say Turkey is already an authoritarian.

Over the years, there have been talks about different concepts between authoritarianism and democracy. In the case of elections, we have actually observed democratic processes. The voters gave votes that were counted and truly influenced the change of power. However, there is no uncertainty as to which direction Turkey is presently heading.

How long can demonstrations take?

Turks are hot-blooded. They go to barricades, they express their opposition, protests can drag on for weeks. And power will do anything to block it. For example, it will hinder access to protests, cut off metro stops and another public transportation, so that demonstrators cannot scope their destination or gotta put up a maximum amount of effort. Additionally, on Sunday, March 30, Ramadan (the period of fasting) will end, Christmas will begin, and this may besides weaken the enthusiasm to demonstrate.

"Opposition must keep unity"

Will the detained mayor of Istanbul Imamoglu stay in custody? Can protests lead to his release?

I uncertainty it, due to the fact that it would show the weakness of power. If they don't charge him with terrorism, it will be the success of the protesters. Erdogan is doing everything to show that what is happening in the country is actually a tiny fistful of people connected to the opposition. Nothing insignificant.

The Istanbul City Council will elect a successor, who will besides come from the opposition Republican People's Party. The power does not want to escalate unrest, but the successor will not be as charismatic and popular as Imamoglu.

Umit Turhan Coskun / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP / AFP

A man in the midst of protests in Istanbul holds Turkey's flag against police officers, on 23 March 2025.

What will now be crucial in the opposition's conduct so that its actions will have the top effect?

He must keep unity. Kurds, Conservatives, Nationalists, Right, Left — the most crucial issue is maintaining a common course and social discontent.

In erstwhile elections Oppositionists did not exposure the strongest candidate. They had no clear thought what to offer the Turks.

We're already watching the lira drop. As with most protests, economical issues seem to be crucial.

We've been dealing with a evidence fall in Turkish currency. According to Bloomberg, Turkey's central bank has mostly sold out the reserve of dollars to keep this course. This in turn means that the Turkish economy has difficulties.

In addition, we see the withdrawal of abroad investors from Turkey. The key issue will be how prices in the country will change and how much average citizens will feel. If something brings people to the streets, they are usually economical problems.

It can be said that the lowest wage on the day of the arrest of Imamoglu in the figure was $415 (more than PLN 1,600, counting at the current exchange rate), and after the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul decreased to $380 (about PLN 14,70, counting at the current exchange rate) This is simply a decrease of 35 dollars (about 136 PLN, counting at the current exchange rate), which is simply a large difference.

“Turkey cares about weak Russia”

How crucial is Ankara's function in the ongoing peace negotiations on Ukraine? What's Erdogan playing? seemingly he knows he can afford a lot, and he's not worried about his position. We know the Turkish position towards Crimea. Ankara declared that it would never recognise the peninsula as Russian territory. Erdogan, on the another hand, said that there were fewer actual leaders in the planet and that included himself and Putin. What will Turkey's goal be in negotiations?

Turkey cares about weak Russia due to the fact that it is in its interest. Of course, Ankara cares about Ukraine, due to the fact that it is its strategical partner, but above all it strives to weaken Russia.

Turkey competes with Moscow in many places of the world: Syria, Lebanon, Africa, South Caucasus, the Black Sea. If he wants to build influences and keep his current interests, if he wants to have a strong position, Russia must be weak, due to the fact that only then can the Turks effectively negociate with the Russians.

This is Turkey's strategical objective, which coincides with our objective. Although this is hard to talk about today, due to what we see in Turkish home policy.

On the another hand, Turkey will search to weaken Russia as much as the United States will allow. Turkish abroad Minister Hakan Fidan went to the US — Turkey's return to acquisition American F-35 fighters. The outlook for this is very vague, but the very fact of the talks shows a change of mood.

Turkey will be the negotiator the United States will let it to be. If Washington supports the holding of negotiations in Turkey, this will be an opportunity. On the another hand, if the Americans are against it, Ankara will not be able to force Russia to force her to hold talks in Turkey.

If the U.S. is now seeking a reset with Russia, they will most likely want to limit Turkey's assertive attitude.

Yes, although it should be remembered that Turkey itself will defend the Ukrainian interest as much as Ankara will pay. The Turks surely do not want to strengthen Russia in the Black Sea. However, they will not go ahead and stand on the side of Ukraine themselves. With Moscow they have quite a few interests, even economical and energy.

Turkey will effort to balance: support Ukraine, but without risking its function in relations with Russia.

Should Poland be betting on an alliance with Turkey, especially if the function of the US in Europe is limited?

Yes, we must build our own safety zone, knowing how to exploit the convergent interests with Turkey. You request to know erstwhile we can negotiate., signaling Turkey what's crucial to us. And for Poland it is important: the east flank of NATO, the stopping of the migration way by Belarus and the reinforcement.