EP: Moldova is preparing to reintegrate Transnistria

The Moldovan authorities are preparing to reintegrate the Transnistrian region controlled by Russia, although they do not announce it publically for the time being, according to an analysis published on 8 October on the European portal actual global Expert and editor of Serhii Sydorenko.

According to Sydorenka, in Chisinau there is simply a increasing belief that the process of unifying Moldova with the left-hand region of Dniestr can take place in an predictable perspective. Although the public does not study a clear request for reintegration, the government, as indicated by the indirect signals, plans infrastructure investments with a view to the future recovery of control over the full state territory.

The survey highlighted that 1 example of specified reasoning is the plan to build a fresh Ungheni-Kiszyni-Odess motorway, financed by the European Investment Bank. The most effective option of its course involves crossing Transnistrian territory, which, as Sidorenko notes, would be impossible without deoccupation of the region.

The key change that has created favourable conditions for possible reintegration is, as the author writes, a "gas factor". After the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in January 2025, Transnistria was in a deep energy and economical crisis. The region, whose budget was mostly based on free gas from Russia, has lost its basic origin of income, which, as Sidorenko estimates, has "ruined its economical model".

Russia, limiting its gas supply, wanted to put force on the pro-Western government of Mai Sandu in Chisinau, hoping to win the pro-Russian forces in the elections. As this did not happen, Moscow de facto weakened its own influence in the region. Currently, the European fact underlines that the gas tap is in the hands of Chisinau, who uses this lever to force political and economical concessions on separatist authorities.

According to Sydorenka, a real obstacle to full deoccupation is not a Russian military presence, as the contingent of the Russian Army Group in Transnistria has only about 100 soldiers from Russia, while the remainder are local. Rather, the local business group Sheriff, led by the Gușan family, which controls most of the region's economy, has a key impact on the situation. According to the author, it is this group that can play a decisive function in the process of peaceful reintegration, if it considers that rapprochement with Chishinov is in its interest.

Sydorenko estimates that in the winter of 2025/26 the process of deoccupation can enter the irreversible phase.

– After 35 years of frozen conflict, Transnistria faces the threshold of reintegration into the Republic of Moldova – due to the fact that all another scenarios only lead to further destabilisation – concludes the author.

Let us remind you that Transnistria is simply a separatist region of Moldova, which has been under the real control of the local authorities supported by Russia since 1992. In 2016, the Moldovan Constitutional Court considered the presence of Russian troops in the region as occupation.

Source: EP

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