This is not the first or last energy transformation in history. The transition from the muscle strength of animals and humans to fossil fuel-powered machines, and then the construction of energy systems were milestones in the improvement of civilization. present we are at a peculiar moment: there is another breakthrough in which electricity becomes the primary driver of economical and industrial development, as well as improving the quality of life of all human being. Just as fossil fuel request has built the power of many modern countries rich in natural materials, so large-scale electrification offers a chance to become the winner of the current transformation.
The request for electricity will grow rapidly in virtually all branch of industry, in transport, heating and in fresh energy-intensive industries, with data processing centres at the head. Whoever manages to integrate these sectors under the name of efficient management of the cheapest possible electricity, will supply their economy with a technological leap.
Just as coal and oil have created the industrial power of the past era, so present the economical advantage will be decided by inexpensive and widely available electricity.
Traps and paradoxes of energy transformation
Energy transformation has its traps and paradoxes. 1 of them is that we truly request energy from RES, but we will not do without conventional sources that work independently of the weather. You can paint the grass green and convince that filling the strategy with windmills, photovoltaic panels and warehouses will supply inexpensive and carbon-free energy without falling safety levels. This is the version we effort to convince in any analyses, but it is far from true. Taking into account the request for energy imports and the periodic simplification of consumer request to guarantee the stableness of the strategy on paper, everything can look fine. Only that managing specified a strategy would be a small safer than playing Russian roulette – not to mention the costs involved.
So let us not effort to decarbonise the energy at any cost. The goal of the transformation is not to unreflectively green all megawatt hour, but to supply as much energy as possible to the recipient as it needs. Neither the gas itself, nor the atom or the coal, nor the RES itself will warrant it. The only solution is simply a well-thought-out technological mix that gives opportunities for flexible strategy management. The times of unreflective investment in photovoltaics and windmills pass, without rebuilding the remainder of the economy. Just as the times of unconditional coal exploitation have passed (with no environmental costs).
In various publications, it can be read that transformation is blocked by network shortages. Those who dig a small deeper into the subject, choose the marketplace model or the incorrect law for the subject. And here and here is simply a small right, but specified discussions show the old truth: for all complex, hard question there is simply a simple, clear and completely incorrect answer. An effort to shift work will not lead us to a goal of reliable supply of inexpensive energy.
Energy transformation must not be a non-reflexive momentum towards decarbonisation – its real goal is simply a unchangeable mix of sources that will supply inexpensive and certain energy whenever needed.
The end of the coal age and the function of energy mix
Our starting point wasn't easy, but we have reason to be proud. erstwhile Poland joined the European Union, 98% of electricity needs were met by coal power plants, which for decades made it possible to build manufacture and make the economy. But their time is moving out. The natural material is exhausted, power plants no longer sale energy at competitive prices, and any of them should have retired long ago due to method condition and unacceptable issue. any of these reasons will shortly start falling out of the system. At PSE, we inactive fear that this will not happen in an uncontrolled way.
So what should I do? Imagine the economy as a strategy of connected vessels created by different branches. The energy component of this strategy is the energy system, which operates further subsystems consisting of smaller components. By changing 1 component to another – e.g. by introducing respective twelve gigawatts of weather-dependent sources and withdrawing respective gigawatts of coal sources – we must carefully check how the remainder of the strategy behaves, and respond accordingly. You may request to match another elements or add brand-new ones to guarantee balance, and they have not yet been used. We already knew about any of the essential adjustments, any of them just appear on the horizon. Blackout in Spain and Portugal, it was a informing to Europe, which is threatened by a lame transformation.
The end of the coal age requires careful balancing of the full strategy – due to the fact that in energy, as in combined vessels, each change has consequences for the whole.
Gas, RES and power marketplace – how to guarantee a balanced strategy
We surely request a power mechanics in which power is contracted, namely the readiness of the origin to work “on call”. It is simply a kind of insurance policy guaranteeing that the strategy will not deficiency units whose work does not depend on the weather. Let's be honest – this is about gas power plants, due to the fact that coal power plants are not going to be built anymore, and the first atomic blocks will be built in 10 years. It's besides late to replace coal, and inactive their function in the strategy will be different – not in a fewer years. Gas units are expected to supply power. The "gases" will work comparatively seldom and cannot compete with the energy price offered by RES. These in turn have the advantage that they do not bear fuel costs or emanation allowances. So they will always offer the cheapest energy. This argument in the economy must not be disregarded.
So we have a paradox. If you can't make money selling power alone from gas plants, no 1 will build them. At the same time, we request them to avoid power levels and the tremendous costs to the economy. Power mechanics is the solution to this problem – it creates an incentive to build fresh units or keep existing ones. The problem is that soon, in December 2025, we are facing the final auction in the framework of the existing power market, which has been operating in Poland since 2018. What's next? For the moment, small is known beyond the fact that virtually all country in Europe wants to have any form of a power mechanism. Polish experience shows that the remuneration of conventional units for their readiness to work will be a constant component of modern energy, but the expression has exhausted. We request not 1 solution, but respective related mechanisms – 1 for manufacturing capacity, another for warehouses and another for request simplification service. We besides request to find a way to wisely combine the strength mechanisms within the EU to make the best usage of resources on a regional or continental scale.
Another point is the further improvement of renewable energy, especially wind energy on land, due to the fact that photovoltaics – given current needs – have adequate in Poland. Land windmills are much cheaper to build than offshore farms, and can offer competitive energy sales to another sources. In combination with photovoltaics and warehouses, gas power plants or fresh coal blocks will work rarely, utilizing small fuel and not contributing to excessive emissions.
Use as much green energy as possible (because it is inexpensive and does not emit CO2) and usage gas only if essential (to avoid becoming dependent on its suppliers) – this should be the goal of all political force in Poland. This is the Polish state's right.
The script in which gas power plants will be built in Poland in the following years is much worse, but there will not be adequate energy from renewable sources, especially land and wind. Then gases will work much more often, and as a consequence neither marketplace prices nor emissions will fall, and our dependence on gas imports will increase rapidly. That is why it is so crucial to unlock the possible of building land windmills. usage as much green energy as possible – due to the fact that it is inexpensive and does not emit CO2 – and usage gas only if it is essential not to become dependent on its suppliers – that should be the goal of all political force in Poland. It's just a Polish state right.
We, too, of manufacture and average citizens, must learn a fresh approach to energy use.
This is simply a circumstantial product, the price of which changes respective twelve times a day, and the differences between the cheapest and the most costly hr can be counted in thousands of zlotys per megawatt hour. These differences, however, are not seen in the average electricity bill, due to the fact that the recipients are accustomed to a fixed price. This model is worth correcting, due to the fact that without utilizing price volatility and adapting the energy consumption profile to it, we lose business chance – both as individual customers and industry. In order to maximise the benefits of a flexible change in energy consumption, all components of the electricity bill should be assessed dynamically, depending on the situation in the system, reflected by wholesale prices. Price tracking will pay – no 1 should care if the energy at a given time pays PLN 4000/MWh, or if it receives a remuneration for expanding consumption, due to the fact that at a peculiar minute the price is negative.
Changes besides require the process of connecting fresh sources to the system. We cannot grow the network indefinitely and beyond, due to the fact that the recipients pay for the investments – that is, each of us. The construction of a single line or switchboard in the station only to join a tiny PV farm, does not defend itself economically or from the needs of the system.
Without power mechanisms and unlocking the possible of land windmills, transformation will become lame - alternatively of inexpensive green energy, we will be threatened by higher costs, higher emissions and expanding dependence on gas imports.
This is why we want to decision towards an auction approach where investors would compete with the price of the connection. It is simply a story that there is no space for RES in the network – this place is simply blocked by projects of zombies that be only on paper, and investors do not rush to implement them. An auction would no longer pay off for access. With the funds thus obtained, the operator would limit the tariff, which would translate into smaller bills. In addition, fresh sources would truly be created.
Energy is now the front of the hybrid war – not only the economy, but the future of the next generations depends on its safety and rational transformation.
Finally – access to data. Operators request to know precisely how much energy request and production is in all sources. Meanwhile, they do not know it fully, due to the fact that any sources are simply unmeasured, and in addition there is no anticipation of distant control of their work. This is the dark side of the dynamic improvement of RES in fresh years – the deficiency of standards and requirements has made most installations impossible to respond to the current needs of the system. This was 1 of the reasons for the problems with restoring the average operation of the strategy in Spain and Portugal after Blackout in April 2025 – distributed energy functioned outside any control and acted as it was programmed, without considering the emergency situation.
Energy safety in a crisis and threat era
Finally, safety in all its dimensions. We must defend the infrastructure from physical attacks, the public from misinformation and the consequences of crises, and computer systems from cyber criminals. Energy is 1 of the fronts of the hybrid war, and we cannot quit the field here, or at least we should not facilitate the task for possible opponents. Devices affecting the work of the strategy should undergo cybersecurity certification processes, marketplace participants must take these risks seriously and have advanced safeguards, while citizens' awareness and preparation for different scenarios should be built in parallel.
The simple slogan of Bill Clinton "The Economy, Fool" from his first election run is inactive valid. Today, the improvement of the economy mostly depends on unchangeable supply of inexpensive electricity in expanding quantities. The choice of the way that we will meet this request will mostly find what economical conditions we will leave to our children and grandchildren. Let us not let ourselves believe that the transformation of energy makes no sense, but let us not deceive ourselves that it will take place at no cost. And if we are to carry them – let us do it wisely, building a strategy not only safe, but besides thoughtful. We know what traps await us. We know they can be bypassed.
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