Several weeks ago, the media reported a halt to US-Chinese talks on non-proliferation and arms control in the area of atomic weapons. And that's not good news for the planet or the United States. The possible desire of the People's Republic of China to get a atomic parity with the United States may turn into an arms race. Both quantitatively and qualitatively.
The first circular of talks took place last November, small is known about what was discussed at the time and whether and erstwhile the next meetings took place. In July, however, China decided to suspend the dialogue, justifying this with American arms supplies for Taiwan. Of course, it is hard to be amazed by this fact – this issue has repeatedly been the origin of crises in bilateral relations. It is worth recalling any facts about the atomic arsenals of both powers.
Being inactive a part of the fresh START system, the United States cannot have more than 1550 heads deployed on strategical media, another 200 are non-tactic charges. Of course, the full number of stored heads is much higher and exceeds 3,700 units (another 1,300 have position withdrawn from the weaponry and is awaiting disposal). At the same time, the US is in the process of renewing the atomic triad. Most likely in 2027, the B-21 Raider strategical bombers will begin to enter service, which will gotta replace B-1B and B-2A machines completely in the first half of the next decade. In the following year, the first of the strategical submarines of the Columbia type, a successor of the Ohio type, should enter the line. In turn, in 2031, developed Sentinel-type land-based missiles will begin to replace Minutemany III. The cost of renewing the strategical triad is enormous, and the United States surely does not want to get active in an costly arms race in this area. Among another things, dialog with Beijing.
Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider bomber.
China, in turn, is the country that is the fastest increasing atomic arsenal today. At the moment, they have about 500 warheads, of which about 300 are deployed on strategical media (land based missiles and launched from submarines). However, which is very important, between 2020 and 2021 the PRC started to build at least 350 fresh silos for intercontinental missiles. It is inactive unclear how many types or types of missiles will go there, but even if they are only one-headed missiles (which seems unlikely), the Chinese strategical arsenal will double. In addition, Beijing has most likely already armed all its JIN-type submarines with a fresh kind of missile, i.e. JL-3, which can besides carry respective warheads. Last year's Pentagon estimates talk of the number of 1,000 Chinese heads by 2030 and the continuation of the expansion process by 2035.
Attempts to affect China in the strategical disarmament dialog have already been undertaken by the Donald Trump administration during negotiations on the extension of the fresh START Agreement. Beijing, however, was not curious in specified talks, which should not be amazing either – having a much smaller arsenal, would surely not have obtained a treaty parity with the US and the Russian Federation, and this in turn would be unacceptable to Chinese sense of national pride. Now it is known that Joe Biden's efforts besides failed. Concerned, among others, by the possible of developing rocket defence systems, China will search to get this atomic parity from the US. The question of how specified actions will be answered by the United States, which in turn may want to increase its own arsenal to balance both the PRC and FR. However, this would mean a fresh chapter in the past of the atomic arms race.
The American National atomic safety Agency late published a study containing figures on the atomic arsenal of that country. The erstwhile specified study was presented in 2019. Interestingly, it was besides the year erstwhile the number of heads declined – for the first time since 1996, in 2019 there was a (small) increase in the number of heads, compared to the erstwhile year. By 2023 we are inactive dealing with a decline, but its pace has decreased rather noticeably. The script of the fresh arms race is so realistic.
