Tomorrow's parliamentary election in Israel. 5th election in the last 3 and a half years. The polls propose that the right-wing block, centered around Binjamin Netanyahu, has an advantage. However, even if Netanjahu wins, he cannot be certain that he can form a government.
The Israeli political crisis began in 2018 erstwhile Avigdor Lieberman (a Netanjah coalition and then Minister of Defence) resigned. It was a motion of opposition to Netanjah's decision to suspend arms with Hamas. Lieberman was in favour of continuing the fight.
Thus Israel fell into the endless electoral carousel. As many as 4 rounds of parliamentary elections were held between 2019 and 2021. All of them ended with Netanjah's victory, but all time the popular “Bibi” had a immense problem with the creation of a majority government.
The last election, held in March 2021, besides resulted in Bibi's victory, but he did not form the government. A broad anti-Netanjahu coalition centered around Naftali Bennett and Jair Lapid took over. This coalition was highly exotic. It included both nationalists, centrists, leftist and even arabian MPs (for the first time in Israel's history).
From the left: Benny Ganc, Jair Lapid, Naftali Bennett – the main players of the coalition that won the March 2021 election.Through interior conflicts in Netanjah's government and intrigue, however, this exotic coalition broke up in June 2022. Bennett announced his withdrawal from politics and the fresh Prime Minister became Jair Lapid.
The upcoming elections will mostly be a "referendum" on the assurance of voters in Binjamin Netanayahu, who has dominated Israeli politics over fresh years. Bibi is the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history. He ruled continuously for 15 years, from 2009 to 2021. Netanjah is simply a origin of utmost emotion in Israel. No wonder the erstwhile Prime Minister has many embarrassing cards in his résumé. In 2019, he was charged with corruption and violation of public confidence. The trial began in 2020, but has not yet passed a judgment.
For Netanyahu, future elections will not only be a fight for Prime Minister's seat, but a fight for his political career as specified – his opponents believe that if he re-takes the position of Prime Minister, he will block the trial in his case.
Recent polls give advantage to the right-wing block centered around Netanyahu. However, the advantage is marginal – Netanyahu's block can number on 61 tickets from 120. In practice, this may mean that despite winning – one more time – Netanyahu will not be able to form a government.
Even if Netanjahu could form a government, Bibi would most likely become a "political hostage" of ultranationalists, specified as Itamar Ben-Gvir (photo). Without people like Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu has no chance of winning 61 seats in Kneset.
Much will depend on election attendance. This is well illustrated by the situation of respective allies of the current Prime Minister, Jair Lapid: the parties of Merec, HaAvoda, Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al should get a full of 18 seats, but according to the polls all balance at the electoral threshold (3.25%).
In conclusion, it is hard to find whether the upcoming elections will find anything. Similarly, no organization may be able to gain a clear advantage, and the political crisis in Israel may continue.
In my opinion, the resolution of this political crisis can only be resolved after the end of the Netanjahu trial, because, as I mentioned, the upcoming elections are a more "reference" on trust in Netanjahu than "parliamentary elections".
At the same time, it should be stressed that Israel – even though it is going through an interior crisis – is inactive a good player internationally. Abraham's agreements were signed in the fall of 2020 erstwhile Netanyahu was inactive in power, but the crisis in the country was already ongoing. After removing Netanjah from power (2021), the Bennett-Lapid government effectively influenced the Biden administration in the JCPOA (nuclear agreement with Iran). Last week, however, the Lapida government signed an agreement with Lebanon to designate a disputed sea border.
Of course, Israeli abroad policy is not as effective as it could be in a situation of unchangeable government. However, it is worth noting that Israel, after all, is working well internationally.
