The political BETFAN Barometer indicates that in the 1st circular of the presidential election Rafał Trzaskowski will rise 35% of the vote, for Karol Nawrocki he will vote 30% of the voters and for Sławomir Mentzen 16%. According to the Polish bookie, no another candidate will exceed the 10% threshold on May 18. BETFAN analysts foretell that in the second round, the candidate KO will confirm his position as the favorite, defeating the candidate supported by the PiS. Before that happens, voters will see them in the debate on TVP, which can be varied by the subjects brought by candidates – according to BETFAN, the best chances of appearing in the studio are Tadeusz Batyr's book and the rainbow flag.
– According to our forecasts, Rafał Trzaskowski, despite respective run trips and wavering support, will be able to rise 35% of the vote in 1st round, and will be awarded a win in 10 voivodships. At the same time, due to the dissipation of the votes of the centre voters and the left and the increasing candidates of the opposition, the current ruler of the capital on 18 May does not declassify the main rival. The support for Karol Nawrocki is estimated to be 30%, which will be supported by the mobilisation of PiS voters who fear “the system’s collapse” by the current power camp. For the same reason, Nawrock will not be threatened by Sławomir Mentzen. In our opinion, he will not be able to convince adequate PiS voters, especially erstwhile Grzegorz Braun takes the right-wing vote effectively. Ultimately, Mentzen's support is estimated to be 16%, which would be a solid consequence – assesses Luke Wyka, political analyst at BETFAN.
According to BETFAN, Szymon Hołownia, despite the reflection on the last simple campaign, will not be able to win the desired two-digit consequence – the bookmaker predicts that he will gotta satisfy only 6%. According to BETFAN analysts, the 5th place will be ex aequo Adrian Zandberg and Grzegorz Braun – both with 4% support. Behind them will be Magdalena Biejat, who will win 3% of the vote. According to the estimates of the Polish bookmaker, the results of the remaining candidates together will not exceed 2%, while attendance in the first circular will scope 64%.
– Mazowieckie will be 1 of the voivodships that will give Rafał Trzaskowski the highest percent of votes in the first round. Here, in our opinion, the candidate KO will win as many as 41% of the vote, Karol Nawrocki will win 34% of the vote, Sławomir Mentzen 17% and Szymon Holovnia will vote 7% of the vote. The results for Warsaw itself will show the same order of candidates, but that the advantage of Trzaskowski over rivals will be much greater. According to our estimates, 48% will vote for her current president in the capital, Karol Nawrocki will rise only 18% of the vote, and Sławomir Mentzen will win 15% here – provides BETFAN political analyst.
The results of the BETFAN Political Barometer mean that Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki will face the second round. Of these, the candidate KO (course 1.57) presently has the best chance of a presidential seat.
– Although Rafał Trzaskowski remains a favorite, Karol Nawrocki is not in a lost position. It already has rather considerable capital for the second round, even though it is simply a candidate without political experience and until late a little-known person. If he can win the electorate of another right-wing candidates, especially Sławomir Mentzen, he may endanger the camp of power. And for Trzaskowski, and for his group specified a script is unacceptable, so they will most likely search to consolidate their electorate, especially before the second circular – This is Luke Wyka.
Before Poles go to vote on May 18, however, candidates will present themselves to them during the debate on TVP. The fresh clashes have shown that bringing props to a tv studio is increasingly practiced. What can viewers anticipate this time? According to BETTAN, the best chances of appearing on the air are Tadeusz Batyr's book, which is simply a literary alter ego by Karol Nawrocki, and a rainbow flag (course 2.0 for both). With a reasonably advanced probability 1 of the participants would like to support his argument with a photograph of Donald Tusk (course 3.0), and a somewhat smaller German flag, boxing gloves, a book "Rafal" or a jar of pickles (course 5.0 for each item). It is much little likely, according to BETFAN, that another culinary gadgets, e.g. rice bowls (10.0), will appear during the debate, although this would mean a bigger win in case 1 of the candidates wanted to show something with it: each 100 zł would bring a bet on 880 PLN.
BETFAN Political Barometer is simply a systematically updated set of analyses and forecasts regarding crucial political, national and abroad events, prepared by BETFAN, a Polish legal bookie. On the basis of these data, BETFAN forecasts the settlements of future political events and on this basis issues courses.
BETFAN is simply a Polish legal bookie operating online and stationary. The company is the largest Polish bookie, and in more than 4 years of business it has taken PLN 154 million from the game taxation to the state budget. BETFAN analyses are the basis for many accurate forecasts of sporting, social, cultural and political events. According to BETFAN's predictions, Andrzej Duda won the fight for presidency, in the Grand Press competition, Andrzej Poczobut was elected writer of the year and Konrad Fijolek was president of Rzeszów. BETFAN besides correctly forecasted that KRRiT would extend TVN7's broadcasting licence. BETFAN places large emphasis on following the rules of liable play. All employees are trained in this area and their cognition is regularly updated through subsequent educational workshops.
