The following text is partially a conspiracy explanation and circumstantial in its political fiction section, the individual elements of which may deviate from the political real facts...
In Poland we have 2 political factions that have a chance to win the elections. The first 1 may be associated with KO (PO) under the leadership of D. Tusk and is subject to BND and FSB and the second 1 may be associated with ZP (PiS) under J. Kaczyński and is subject to CIA and Mossad.
In general, elections in Poland will be a substitute fight: the German EU and its pursuit of federalisation and agreement with Russia in the area of the division of European influences and cooperation with China and the US, which would like Poland (e.g. in the framework of the Trimorz) to be a barrier before the German-Russian-Chinese triumvirate takes over Europe. In fact, France should besides be added to this triumvirate.
BND - Bundesnachrichtendienst (in short BND, with German. national Intelligence Service, national Intelligence Service – an intelligence agency formed in the national Republic of Germany in 1956, native to the alleged Gehlen Organization, based at the Gardeschützenweg 71-101 in Berlin and at Heilmannstr. 30 in Pulla close Munich.
FSB - national safety Service of the Russian Federation (FSB, ros. Федеральная служба безопасности Федерации, ФСБ) is simply a peculiar service in Russia formed on 3 April 1995 from the transformation of the national Counterintelligence Service (1993-1995). The successor to the KGB, who was the successor to Cheka and NKVD in the communist USSR.
CIA - Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is an American government intelligence agency dealing with the acquisition and analysis of information about abroad governments, corporations and individuals, and the improvement of reports on them for U.S. government institutions. The agency was formed on 26 July 1947 by president Harry Truman.
Mosad - Institute for Intelligence and peculiar Tasks (Hebrew: המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים, Ha-Mosad le-Modi’in u-le-Tafkidim Mejuchadim) is an Israeli intelligence agency liable for collecting political, technical, economical intelligence data outside the country, formally formed on April 1, 1951 as the Institute of Coordination. The current name was given in 1963 [1].
I left out military peculiar services here, but in many cases they besides cooperate with their national civilian services.
What's the situation today?
It is worth noting that just after J. Biden took over the presidency of the USA, the United States practically gave Europe to Germany and Russia. The fresh president gave "green light" to complete the construction of Nord Stream II claiming that since the pipeline is already being completed, let it be completed: ""25.05.2021 emphasized that he was from the beginning an opponent of this project, but at the time he took office in January this year, the gas pipeline was almost completed. In specified a situation, sanctions would be "contra-productive for our relations with Europe (by default: with Germany - my addition" [2].
J. Biden's declaration was "honey on the lips" for the German-Russian condominium, and I believe that it contributed powerfully to the acceleration of W. Putin's aggression on Ukraine. It is all the more likely that even in January 2022 at a press conference US president Joe Biden ""suggested that if it comes to a "minor invasion" of Russia to Ukraine, sanctions against Moscow may be lighter than in the event of a full-scale invasion. - This gives Putin a green light to enter Ukraine - assessed 1 Ukrainian politician in a conversation with CNN"' [3].
And after a period of J. Biden's words, W. Putin on 24 February 2022 attacked Ukraine on a full scale, and this war continues until today, though both Russia and Germany, and I think the US were convinced that it would take a week or a fewer days longer. The Ukrainians amazed everyone with an incredible patriotic desire to preserve the independency of their homeland. And to surprise everyone besides in the east of Ukraine. The full Ukrainian nation has united in the conflict for its own state and this fight has lasted for more than 15 months (463 days).
As the war continued, J. Biden's policy changed by 180 degrees, which now powerfully condemns Russian aggression and alongside Poland and the UK it is the US that is the backbone of the military-humanist aid of Ukraine. For Poland, this is simply a saving, due to the fact that at the same time the US changed its attitude towards the Russian-German condominiums and put Poland as its strategical partner in the EU and in the full continental Europe. And we know that it is the current ruling Law and Justice organization that is the most pro-American organization in Poland and focuses on a deeper alliance with the US!
In addition, the EU, in the form of Germany and France, has been waiting for Ukraine to bleed out for a long time to return to close cooperation with Russia before the war. Finally, under force from Poland, the UK and the USA, these countries joined the anti-putinian coalition, although they inactive seem to begin to renew their relations with Russia immediately after the war (or possibly even during the war). German Chancellor O. Scholz put it this way: "I am ready to resume contact with Putin erstwhile the right time comes. It's been a while since my last telephone call. But erstwhile the time comes, I'm going to talk to Putin again" [4]. In addition, French president E. Macro visited China and on his way back from this visit to China he said, ""that Europe must defy the force to become "a copycat of America." He besides warned that the large hazard for Europe is "to get active in crises that are not ours" - it is evidently about tensions between the mediate State and the US on the position of Taiwan" [5]. E. Macron (EU) so wants to hold "strategic autonomy" (neutrality) against the possible aggression of China to Taiwan.
The above position of heads of the leading EU countries is besides a clear policy of cutting off from the US and eliminating their influence in Europe. This is seen in America and it is at least angerful and already a strategical alliance: Berlin-Paris (or EU)-Pekin-Moscow is unacceptable to the US. All the more so Poland becomes more strategically crucial to the US!
It can besides be noted that it is the president of France who has a leading function in the EU's anti-American policy, including in the area of dust. However, I am certain that he does not conduct this policy without the cognition and approval of the Chancellor of Germany, due to the fact that Germany must be very cautious in its dealings with the US and like to cede the prognoscy on E. Macro.
Why?
It is worth knowing that Germany is not precisely a free country and until 2099 are incapacitated by Allies from WWII: the United States, large Britain and France. On May 21, 1949, a secret treaty (der Geheime Staatsvertrag) was signed limiting the sovereignty of the future Bundesrepublic. Its signatories were the forming German administration and 3 business powers: the United States, the United Kingdom and France. This paper states that until 2099, or 150 years after its conclusion, each successive Chancellor of the national Republic Germany must sign the business power of a loyale called colloquially der Kanzlerakte. It limits Germany's sovereignty in key areas related to widely understood State safety and is first signed during the first visit of the fresh German Chancellor to the US [6].
So in general it can be said that both Germany and France will want to return to their "brotherly" contacts with Russia as shortly as possible and Russia itself is slow dependent on China, which is hostile to the US. Thus, the German Old EU focuses on contacts with China at the expense of the US and thus becomes an almost American enemy. Hence, this pro-American Poland is increasingly crucial for the US.
And if Poland is to stay pro-American, from the U.S. point of view the closest elections must win the Law and Justice (ZP). Otherwise, winning the full opposition will mean subjecting Poland to Germany and Russia, with all negative consequences for both Poland and the USA.
For the power of Russia, however, she needs control of Ukraine. Without Ukraine, Russia will have little and little influence on planet geopolitics. Of course, for W. Putin it would besides be optimal to control Belarus (which already exists) and Poland or part of it and the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. We must besides not forget that the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact has never been spoken, nor the German thought of Mitteleuropa has stopped chauvinist minds of the German and German elites! In the consciousness of many Germans, there is inactive a belief in the Nazi "Rasa of the Lords" and this is why we frequently have a real impression of immense shoes and arrogance of many representatives of German elites and even average Germans. Moreover, the sense of superiority can besides be seen powerfully in the French president E. Macron.
Today, the war in Ukraine is simply a de facto substitute war of the US (Polish) with Russia and... China. 1 can besides hazard saying that it is besides a war for Europe between the German-Russian condominium and the US.
The elections in Poland will besides have a akin character. This will be the arena for the fight of pro-American and pro-German-Russian-Chinese environments. That is why I believe that it will besides be a fight of peculiar services, above all all German-Russian with American and in any ways allied with them - Israeli.
Once specified a fight - in my conspiracy opinion - took place in Poland and it was before the 2015 elections, erstwhile the US abandoned the reset with Russia and in Poland wanted to win the Law and Justice. Then abruptly there were recordings of compromising PO politicians, which were expected to be recorded by any waiter in, among others, the "Sowa and Friends" restaurant. If anyone believes that, congratulations on a sense of humor. In my aberrant opinion, specified recording could not have taken place if it had not been for the American peculiar Services!
That's so many of my possible truths and fantasies, and as it will be during the Polish election run we will see it. However, I believe that American-Israeli services are better than German-Russian... But I might be wrong...
[1] General information on peculiar services was taken from the public Wikipedia under their names,
[2] ]]>https://www.dw.com/en/biden-sanctions-bez-nord-stream-2-by]]>a-57667770
[3] ]]>https://news.wp.pl/gives-green-light-putin-Ukrainian-surprising...]]>
[4] ]]>https://independent.pl/486040-German-back-wanca-do-interest-with-Russia-kan...]]>
[5] ]]>https://www.bankier.pl/message/Xi-transverse-Macrona-President-France...]]>
[6] https://nie Correctni.pl/blog/rafal-brzeski/kanclerska-lojalka. Subsequent German governments effort to question the existence of this paper and consider its copy to be a fake. However, various leaks and statements of German politicians (even veiled erstwhile chancellors) or scientists let to confirm its existence.