Tomas Lindner: Over the last 10 years Turkey has been through quite a few turbulence and has moved towards authoritarian rule. For example, last year, Selahattin Demirtas, leader of the left-wing D.A.P. Party, was sentenced to 42 years in prison. What is the importance of the fresh arrest of the opposition of the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu?
Lucie Tungul: Demirtas' arrest and conviction was a violation of democracy, and Imamoglu's arrest has a akin intent — the elimination of a political opponent. However, in this case, this is an utmost violation of the principles of political competition. It can be said that Turkey has passed from competitive authoritarianism, in which the elections were not fair but inactive free — like e.g. Hungary — a dictatorship akin to the Russian regime.
Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish political scientist, speaks of a turning point: he believes Turkish politics has just entered a fresh area. Do you agree?
I agree. And much will depend on what happens in the next fewer days. Let's see if we can confirm our common concerns. It'll truly be days, not weeks or months. Either society will emergence and there will be mass protests, or Erdogan will be able to suppress the voices of the opposition with a policy of fear and repression.
Why did Imamoglu become specified a serious rival of Erdogan? What did he do differently from the many another opposition leaders that Erdogan easy defeated?
Imamoglu is very popular, in fact it is very akin to Erdogan erstwhile he became mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s. He is comparatively young, energetic, charismatic and capable. On the another hand, the ruling ACP and Erdogan are tired, without energy. And people themselves are tired of their kind of government. They want change, but they besides want a strong personality whose opposition could not offer before. As the experience of another countries shows, it is not adequate to be against. Turkey found in Ekrema Imamoglu a personality with the right energy and vision, which represented a real alternative.
In the 2019 run for mayor of Istanbul. Imamoglu did not engage in large cultural wars with Erdogan's muslim camp, and alternatively focused on concrete promises to improve the surviving standards of the inhabitants. Was he following this as mayor? Has he improved surviving standards?
His era after taking over was marked by pandemics, economical crisis, utmost inflation. At this time, it is not possible to talk about improving the standards of surviving that have fallen throughout Turkey. There are about 20 million people surviving in Istanbul, a large number of refugees, and the city is an economic, cultural and social centre of Turkey. Managing specified a pier is an ungrateful task, but it has overcome all these challenges, winning local elections in a crushing kind last year.
His political party, CHP, the strongest opposition party, knows that Imamoglu is most likely the only politician who could defeat Erdogan in the presidential election. In fresh years, he has shown that he can unite — he managed specified a large city even erstwhile the ACP of Erdogana had a majority on the council. In Turkey's very hot political culture, this is simply a unique skill.
EPA/ERDEM SAHIN / PAPDemonstration of Ekram Imamoglu supporters after his arrest. Istanbul, 19 March 2025.
Does Imamoglu truly have anything to do with his corruption charges, and does the prosecution have any evidence against him? Minister Yilmaz Tunc assures that the justice strategy operated independently.
This is surely a carefully planned step. The level of corruption and nepotism in Turkey is high, yet even Erdogan had respective serious corruption scandals. However, there is no uncertainty that this is simply a political matter. In addition to public opinion, courts will now play a key role, and not all are under Erdogan's control. Moreover, the CHP is increasing stronger and has acquired at least 150 000 fresh members in fresh months, with a full of 1.75 million. Meanwhile, the ACP Erdogana recorded a decrease in the number of members.
“I would not be afraid to call it a coup”
Why is the arrest — and early withdrawal of the university diploma, which is simply a condition for moving for president — happening now?
It is not even clear whether his master's degree is valid due to the fact that the university revoked his bachelor's degree under political pressure... The Rector refused to revoke his diploma, but yet Erdogan forced him to. The hot thing is, he most likely has a false university diploma himself. The next presidential election will not take place until 2028, so it doesn't seem to make sense. However, according to the current constitution, Erdogan cannot run again — it would should be changed.
According to the earlier explanation of the courts following the change of constitution, the erstwhile mandates are reset, which Erdogan has already benefited once. However, Erdogan's coalition does not have adequate MPs to amend the Constitution. Moreover, Imamoglu is simply a strong favourite in the primaries in opposition CHP.
PAP/EPA/ERDEM SAHINVoting in the primary CHP. Istanbul, 23 March 2025.
What will the opposition do now?
There was a proposition that the mayor of Ankara Mansur Yavas could run alternatively of him, but he himself rejected it and supported Imamoglu. Mansur Yavas is an outsider in the party, attracting nationalists alternatively than typical centre-left secular CHP voters. There are concerns in the organization that the cleaning will affect all organization leaders. I wouldn't be afraid to call it a coup. Imamoglu remains the only candidate in the presidential primary. On Wednesday evening, CHP called on the partyless to give "voices of solidarity" to separate urns in CHP offices across the country.
"Europe cannot trust on undemocratic regimes"
To what degree are the arrests related to global events that are in the hands of authoritative authorities? For example, Europe will not want to criticize Erdogan besides hard due to The improbability of Donald Trump, Importance of Turkey in helping Ukraine and future stabilisation of Syria.
I wouldn't see the current situation as a trigger, but time favors Erdogan.
How should the European Union and the associate States respond now? What makes sense, and what has the other effect?
While Turkey is crucial for Europe and Ukraine, it besides desperately needs Europe. Erdogan cannot afford to leave Europe — either politically or economically. This would increase his vulnerability to Russia. If Imamoglu is not released by the court and is incapable to act freely, Europe must abandon its policy of verbal reprimand and immediately retreat its candidate position and consider sanctions. Turkey has a customs union agreement with the EU, and repealing it would be a immense blow to the Turkish economy.
EPA/NECATI SAVAS / PAPRecep Tayyip Erdogan Conference, president of Turkey, after gathering Donald Tuski. Ankara, 12 March 2025.
Do you have information about the current European backroom diplomacy, or do we simply have no influence on Turkey? This could be evidenced by the imprisonment of the mentioned Kurdish leader Demirtas or philanthropist Osman Kawali Despite all protests from abroad.
We have a completely different geopolitical situation, which requires Europe to show that it is different from in 2022, when, for example, Lukashenko falsified the elections in Belarus and the EU did nothing. If anyone is to take the statements of the EU and its associate States seriously, they must now respond rapidly to specified a serious crisis in their neighbourhood and not be embarrassed.
What are the global implications of specified changes in Turkey?
This increases the instability and already unstable region, which has repercussions for a very many Turkish diaspora in Europe. On the another hand, it shows one more time that Europe cannot trust on undemocratic regimes in terms of its security, and giving in to authoritative leaders only increases their appetite.
"Desperate people take desperate action"
How strong is Recep Erdogan's position on the national phase now?
It was reinforced by a fresh agreement with the Turkish Kurds, but the economical situation is not improving significantly, and discontent is inactive high. Within the constitutional order, however, his position is strong.
After his triumph in the election last year, did he decision towards dictatorship, as the opposition feared at the time? Or possibly he didn't change so much until Imamoglu was arrested, and he was alternatively pragmatic?
He ruled 1 step forward and 2 steps backward. He accepted without protest the results of last year's local elections, in which his organization lost by overwhelming majority, began a peace process with Kurds, in which he managed to break the opposition of the head of pro-government nationalists, but continued to close journalists, instigated cultural wars, recalled Kurdish mayors and installed trusted people in their place. His pragmatism is based on 1 overriding interest — remaining in power. However, so far he has always tried to make it look like a democratic choice of Turkish society.
Erdogan promised that the current term, which expired in 2028, was his last. Is it certain that in the meantime he wants to change the constitution and stay in power longer?
There's no uncertainty about it.
How would Turkish society respond to specified a change?
There is no majority to change the constitution and so must make a situation where this will be possible. The events of fresh days show that he fears that he will fail. That even an agreement with the Kurds isn't enough. It's an act of desperation, and desperate people take desperate action.
Erdogan himself was arrested and brought to trial in 1999 — as opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul. Ultimately, however, it only strengthened his image and a fewer years later his organization won the election. How likely is something like this going to happen now?
I don't think that's what happened. In 1999, the interior and global situation was completely different. Erdogan is aware of the similarities with Imamoglu and is doing everything in his power to prevent past from repeating itself.
What do you anticipate now?
I hope so, but skepticism takes over. If a number of factors coincide — the courage of the courts, the courage of the Turkish people and the courage of Europe — this desperate act can become an chance to end Erdogan's regulation and return Turkey to the way of democratisation. Society has changed a lot over the last 20 years and there is simply a strong will to decision forward. But it may besides fail, and Turkey will sink into a dictatorship that will crush hopes and plunge people into apathy and hopelessness, at least as long as Erdogan is in power. I hope this happens first, but I uncertainty that a match like this will be found. So I'd bet on the another one, unfortunately.
