In the latest poll conducted by Norstat on behalf of the ERR portal, the Estonian Conservative People's organization (EKRE) gained 17.8% of support, ahead of the current leader of the political scene – the Estonian improvement organization (17.2%). Only the Chadek organization of Homeland was ranked higher, with a score of 26.7%. This is simply a clear signal that EKRE, although in opposition, can effectively manage the social and political sentiments of the ruling.
For respective months, the Estonians have shown fatigue in the current strategy of forces. The improvement Party, which has dominated national politics for years, is losing its importance due to a series of unpopular economical decisions and interior tensions. At the same time, Isamaa (Home), with fresh leadership and a more average transmission, gains more centre-right electorate. However, EKRE seems to be the organization that can best channel the frustration of voters. This organization has been building its image for years as an anti-systemic force, ready for harsh criticism of the elite, the European Union and immigration. In the face of rising costs of surviving and economical uncertainty, this transmission is vulnerable.
This period EKRE did not decide to enter local power structures in Tallinn. As organization leader Martin Helme said, he does not see the nonsense of engaging in the coalition a fewer months before the election. According to him, the organization intends to hold "clean hands" and stay in opposition to the October municipal elections. This decision seems to be a thoughtful strategical move. Entrance to the coalition could harm a organization that draws support from being an anti-system alternative. Remaining in opposition allows further scoring of opponents and avoid the request for compromises that could discourage a hard electorate.
At the same time, Helme announced that his organization would support the abolition of kindergarten fees in Tallinn, which he considered as his long-standing request. This is simply a good example of selective support for initiatives that are in line with the EKRE agenda, without entering into a direct political agreement.
The increase in support to 17.8% is not accidental. EKRE can inactive number on solid electoral facilities in smaller cities and villages, where distrust of Brussels and liberal reforms is much higher than in Tallinn. It is there that the organization runs an intense direct campaign, organizing meetings, debates and local events. The Norstat survey is based on the average of the past 4 weeks, which means that we are not dealing with a one-off swing, but with a sustainable upward trend. In comparison, EKRE had a 13-14% endorsement in early 2025.
Local elections are scheduled for October 19. Until then, EKRE intends to proceed the media and local offensive. The plans include further events, the publication of reports criticizing the government's economical policy and the expansion of social media presence. The organization clearly aims to accomplish better results not only in traditionally conservative regions, but besides in Tallinn, where it wants to attract the disappointed urban electorate. It will be crucial, however, if the EKRE can keep rhetoric sharp at the same time, but not utmost – due to the fact that it was due to controversial statements that any voters in the past turned distant from the party.
It is worth noting that, despite increasing support, EKRE remains a organization with which most groups do not want to enter the coalition. Their firm position towards immigration, climate policy and European integration makes them a hard partner for more centrer or left-wing players. All the more likely is simply a script in which EKRE will stay a strong opposition force, puts force on the rulers and prepares the ground for the next parliamentary elections. With expanding support and a more disciplined message, he can number on becoming not only a “party of protest” but a viable alternative.
EKRE's current condition indicates skillful playing with cards of opposition, social discontent and clear ideological message. Growth in polls is not a coincidence – it is simply a consequence of consistent strategy and good mood. If the organization maintains the current course, it may appear from the upcoming local elections stronger than ever.
Whether it enters local power structures or remains in opposition, 1 thing is certain: EKRE already has a real impact on Estonia's political agenda. And more and more Estonians seem to hear her voice.
