“No, I wouldn’t call it a clear bluff,” says Reto Follmi, prof. of macro-economics and abroad trade at St. Gallen University. The tariffs are part of Trump's negotiating strategy and have achieved certain objectives. — He made the fentanyl crisis a serious issue, says Follmi. The drug problem in the US is truly huge, says a prof. who late spent a semester in California. Trump besides reiterated the issue of illegal border crossing.
Shortly after taking office, he was successful in negotiating with Colombia, threatening to impose criminal duties — the effect is that the country accepts its citizens back without restrictions. “ Trump got an appetite, ” he says.
As a real property dealer, Trump thinks in terms of transactions. “He tries to start negotiations halfway to get more for himself,” the prof. says. However, although the US has large purchasing power, the economy is yet not a company. “ common imposition of duties yet harms both trading partners,” Follmi says.
Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum promised to send 10,000 National defender soldiers to the borderto halt illegal border crossings and fight drug trafficking. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that Canada implements a $1.3 billion border plan.. The border is to be better secured thanks to helicopters, fresh technology and more staff.
Did Trump win or did Mexico and Canada cave? “I wouldn’t call him a winner,” Follmi says. Both sides always enjoy good business. “As a good businessman Trump should know that.
However, import duties against Mexico and Canada were not abolished but only deferred. “The problem of drugs and migration is not easy to solve,” Follmi says. “If Trump is not satisfied, he can reopen the tariff club,” he says. 1 thing is certain: there is uncertainty. — It's poison for investments and companies. on both sides, says the economist. The U.S. besides risks their reputation as a reliable partner.
Spencer Colby / PAPCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
The threat of a longer conflict with China
Trump besides announced an additional 10% work imposed on China. However, according to Trump, these tariffs are only ‘first volley’. Beijing has already announced remedies.
“The conflict with China goes deeper,” says prof. of Economics Follmi, “because security, technological dominance and geopolitical advantage are besides involved.” There is simply a threat of a long-term conflict, which is not a affirmative possible for the global economy. The separation of different economical areas is inevitable. This would lead to inefficiency, due to the fact that everywhere you gotta invent a ellipse again.
Trump views the global economy besides much as a game. Export is good, import is bad. “ But it’s not true,” Follmi says. For example, the United States uses a very advanced level of investment from abroad. Despite its size, this country cannot produce all the goods alone. “This is simply a fundamental mistake in thinking,” Follmi says. — Trump takes a broad-spectrum approach, even though it cannot accomplish the goal of moving everything to the US.
Europe at Trump's target
Trump besides wants to attack the EU soon. Follmi expects the EU to besides take countermeasures. "Only from a negotiating perspective". The conflict is simply a bad possible — especially for the German automotive manufacture and its Swiss suppliers.
So far, Trump hasn't straight attacked Switzerland. “As a tiny country, we tend to fly below radar,” Follmi says. Switzerland besides maintained good relations with the US during Trump's first word of office. “ However, Swiss companies must prepare for different scenarios,” Follmi warns. Those who have different outlets are well prepared.
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