The ECB hits Polish SAFE 0%. A dispute over NBP gold and military money

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Zdjęcie: EBC uderza w polski SAFE 0%. Spór o złoto NBP i pieniądze na wojsko


The European Central Bank challenged the construction of the Polish Defence Investment Fund, which was intended to power the modernization of the army from the profits of the NBP and the increase in the value of gold reserves. It's a dispute over accounting. The question is whether Poland can finance its own safety so that Brussels does not get an easy legal pretext to block a sovereign decision.

The ECB is looking at a defence fund

The European Central Bank issued its opinion CON/2026/23 on the Polish Defence Investment Fund on 28 July. The paper concerns 2 draft laws: presidential of 10 March 2026 and parliamentary of 24 March 2026. Both projects presume the creation of a peculiar public fund operated by the Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, whose task would be to finance the method modernization of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland and another activities strengthening the safety of the state.

By ECB opinion published in EUR-Lex the fund is to be fed, among others, by contributions from the yearly NBP profit, bond issuance and BGK loans. The parliamentary draft states that between 2026 and 2035 the transfer from the profit of the central bank could not be little than 9 tenths of the yearly profit. If the NBP profit was lower than the scheme's needs, BGK would grant the fund a debt repaid from future NBP profits.

The NBP did not enter an open dialog with Frankfurt. According to Defence24, the central bank limited its consequence to a laconic position: without comment to the ECB document, while maintaining its assessment that it is acting under law and its own competence. This is simply a short answer, but the problem is serious: the military needs money quickly, and the Polish state must be careful that the urgent request for defence is not dressed in an easy construction to challenge.

Gold, profit and hazard for NBP

The concept of Polish SAFE 0% was presented as a national sovereign alternate to the EU SAFE programme. The President's office informed on March 10 that Polish Defence Investment Fund to finance the modernization of the armyand the mechanics was to usage the management of NBP reserves without exhausting them. In the communication, the amount of PLN 200 billion fell between 4-5 years and a separate mention to PLN 185 billion for Poland.

The ECB pointed out that the justifications of the projects relate to the increase in the value of Polish gold reserves. According to the NBP document, it increased the resources of the aggregate to over 550 tonnes and the increase in gold prices increased the value of reserve assets. The National diary has already written that NBP has more gold reserves than the European Central Bankwhich is an asset in terms of financial safety of Poland.

However, the Atut is not the same as a bag of money for the current issue. The ECB indicated that the sale of gold could convert unrealised valuation gains into a financial result, but the transfer of specified profits to the fund would reduce NBP's equity. The paper besides states that the NBP has been showing losses and not profits since 2022. Uncovered losses from erstwhile years were to amount to PLN 97.2 billion, including PLN 35.7 billion for 2025, with gold overestimated at the end of 2025 in the order of PLN 139.7 billion.

Brussels knows the language of restrictions

The most powerful part of the ECB’s opinion concerns the central bank’s independency and the ban on monetary financing. The ECB cites Article 130 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, namely the rule of central bank independence, and Article 123, prohibiting central bank financing of public authorities. In practice this means that the NBP should not presume work for financing public expenditure, including defence expenditure.

From the Polish position it sounds annoying. erstwhile the threat of war is real and the army needs equipment, the external financial institution reminds Warsaw of treaty rigors. But this is where you see the price of EU architecture. A country that enters a dense network of commitments later hears that even its own gold and its own central bank must fall within the rules set above national level.

This does not mean that any thought of defence backing from the NBP is automatically good. Sovereignty is not about ignoring the risks to money stability. A strong army and mediocre money is simply a bad deal. Poland needs tanks and credible currency. Therefore, the project, which is to be a national consequence to EU loans, must be legally armored, transparent and immune to the allegations of circumventing Treaty prohibitions.

The military must have money, the state must have a plan

The defence fund dispute shows that the safety password itself is not enough. Modernisation of the army requires long-term, unchangeable funding. It besides requires spending control, due to the fact that billions of PLN spent under time force easy become the prey of chaos, lobbying and import dependency. If Poland is to build strength, it must combine purchases of equipment with the improvement of its own industry, training of reserves and tough budgetary discipline.

The discussion about NBP has another dimension. Polish reserves, including gold, are part of the state's resilience. The National diary has already analyzed, where NBP keeps Polish gold. This is not a balance sheet decoration, but an instrument of assurance in the state during the crisis.

Therefore, the answer to the ECB's opinion should not be: we are going backwards due to the fact that Frankfurt is browsing. Nor should it be: we issue reserves regardless of the consequences. A realistic right must require a 3rd way: its own defence backing program, which protects the independency of the NBP, does not give the decision to Brussels and does not leave the army at the mercy of loans binding Poland for decades.

The safety of Poles and the sovereignty of the state are at stake. If this task is to survive, it must be better than the ECB's opinion against it. Otherwise, the right goal, or the reinforcement of Poland, will be weakened by the defective mechanism. We can't afford that.

Source: Defence24, European Central Bank, Chancellery of the president of Poland.

Source: Defence24

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