One thing is certain — what happens is for the Old Continent completely new threat. As conservative American publicist Robert Kagan put it — jungle returns.
It is actual that Donald Trump reverses a decision made more than 80 years ago to specify the USA as a European power, as he turns distant from a planet order based on principles and law. The power of law becomes the law of the strongest again.
According to Trump, there is no specified thing as global order, nor does he peculiarly value alliances. Instead, he bilaterizes global policy. Paradoxically, he gives up the actual multiplier of the US power: the ability to make and lead alliances.
However, this does not automatically make him individual who seeks peculiar closeness with the Russian president or admires Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Conversely, it is besides improbable that Putin and Xi would abandon their distrust of the US due to the current president. Why should authoritarian and dictatorial systems abruptly trust democracy, which in a fewer years can make a return in global politics?
It seems so more reasonable to presume that Donald Trump did not turn to Russia, but most of all he wants to turn distant from Europe. He simply wants to get free of the war in Ukraine. And with it, preferably the full old-style transatlantic partnership with Europe, an entity that, with equal rights of all associate States within the EU, does not fit the planet of Donald Trump's ideas at all.
In his view, war and commitment to European allies are a costly obstacle to the greatness of America — and its ability to dominate the full planet alone.
Europe back at the centre of geopolitical competition
It can so be assumed that competition will increase. Not so much in terms of military conflicts as in terms of technological development, economical performance and financial markets. This is likely to affect in peculiar the dispute between China and the US.
Because there is no power-free space in global relations, Europe is presently peculiarly susceptible to major geopolitical competition between the US, Russia and China. For Donald Trump, this is simply a burden, but Beijing and Moscow are well aware of the increased strength that alliance with Europe means for the US as well.
This may sound paradoxical in an era where planet power axes have moved from Euroatlantic to Indo-Pacific, but Europe is moving back to the centre of the geopolitical race.
A fresh European era
Even if Europe, its countries and institutions are not geopolitical giants without the US, they are not doomed to inaction. It is up to Europe itself to usage its potential. This is now the most crucial work of democratic forces in Europe.
Basically, it will be a question of Europe's knowing of its geopolitical challenges as an invitation and a chance for a fresh European era.
However, this requires a completely different approach to regional and global challenges from the European Union. The request for unanimity and sometimes crucial differences of interest between East and West Europe and between North and South Europe make Europe slow and ineffective. A different cooperation structure should so be found. If we look at conflicting interests, specified as Hungary and Slovakia on the 1 hand and Germany and France on the other, it is little about Europe of different speeds and more about different directions.
Announced in London “a coalition of willing” is the first crucial step towards freedom from this compulsion to slow down. It is besides an crucial signal that Europe will dare to start again. Neither the US nor the EU play a leading function in this initiative, led by France and the United Kingdom. At the same time, it consists of countries that are members of the EU and NATO.
In addition to membership, this council should clarify relations with the EU and NATO, as well as conventional and atomic deterrence of members. Finally, this authority could specifically coordinate military support for Ukraine.
However, this alone is not adequate to last in a developing world. Europe will gotta find fresh economical strength.
Role of Germany
In fresh years Germany has lost sight of Europe. In modern times, meditation on this subject should be left to modern historians — and this is besides due to the fact that the future coalition led by inactive unelected Chancellor Friedrich Merz sent a strong signal to the planet even before the government began to operate: “Germany returns in a different way”. It's no different from promised amounts to strengthen defence and infrastructure.
The future chancellor and his coalition partner understood, how much depends on Germany's return as a motor and driving force for European integration. The evidence of this is, among another things, an early visit and further close coordination with the president of France. It seems that future coalition partners have not lost sight of the fact that the first prerequisite for this German "return to Europe" is economically attractive Germany. It would be good if Germany remained a strong voice for dialog and relaxation in parallel with defence policy. Military strength and readiness to dialog are not contradictions, but 2 sides of the medal of peace building.
