Talk to Dr. Sergius Third, lawyer, polytologist
– The media reported that Andrzej Duda is preparing to adopt leadership in the PiS after Jarosław Kaczyński. Is this provocation or is there a grain of fact in it?
– I don't say the president cares about taking over the leadership in the PiS. This would be very hard due to the fact that Andrzej Duda does not even have his own faction in the party. delight note that he has been inexcusably criticized many times by activists from the alleged hard PiS who are reluctant to compromise. It is adequate to remind how the "Polish Gazeta" environment disowned him from worship and faith. Nor does the president have the same determination as Mateusz Morawiecki, who besides has no chance of taking the lead in Law and Justice, where many politicians inactive consider him a abroad body. That's why I can't imagine Andrzej Duda being able to control the organization in specified a hard time for PiS. In my opinion, the President's intention is to leave the second word with the best possible image. And keep his individual good relation with influential United States politicians.
– Although the president is officially unpartisan, it is derived from the PiS, which is ideologically very different from the current American administration.
– The environment of Ambassador Brzeziński is much better with the organization Holownia, or possibly even the Civic Coalition than with PiS.
– Unlike Donald Tusk, who has a strong position in Berlin, Andrzej Duda can search allies or protectors in time after the end of office only in the United States. Do you think the president is hoping for an global position?
One question to Marcin Mastelarek (the 1 from Duda, to whom Prof. Jacek Barcik does not want to compression his hand): did you usage information about the democratic environment of the opposition illegally obtained in the exploitation of Pegasus?
— John Hendrix (@KrzywickiMark) November 8, 2023
- I don't know. There are rather a number of specified positions outside the Union. He can besides number on highly paid lectures at American universities. But it's just speculation. erstwhile a Republican one more time sits in the White House, then Andrzej Duda, a pro-American politician, and deprived of the odium of very close cooperation with Berlin, would be useful to Washington, but it is hard to find in what capacity today.
– Many influential German politicians no longer hide their desire to push the United States out of Europe. They dream of the 4th Reich, but, in my opinion, even with the support of Russia, Germany will not be able to become a planet power. Especially since they have made many strategical mistakes in economical terms in fresh years.
– The American-German conflict is inevitable. Despite the slogans about democracy and human rights Germany is constantly developing relations with China and is dreaming of rebuilding its old relations with Russia, which will happen sooner than later.
– The fresh appointment of Marcin Mastalerek as head of the presidential cabinet was possibly the top manifestation of Andrzej Duda's drive to independency so far, as we remember the circumstances under which Mastalerek in 2015 abruptly ceased to be a spokesperson for the Law and Justice – leaving politics, reportedly showed disregard for the president of Kaczyński, although it may only be a rumor.
– For a long time, Mastalerek has been considered the grey eminence of the Presidential Palace (previously he was the president's social advisor – the author). I think Andrzej Duda simply likes him, although specified feelings in politics do not substance as much as in the private life of average people. respective advanced officials left the Chancellery of the President, who had very close relations with Novogrodzka, as the president wanted to have associates around him he could trust. Andrzej Duda emphasizes his independency more than in his first term. On the 1 hand, he is an open person, but at the same time he does not full uncover what he intends to do. Even the closest coworkers. I'm certain he's got plans for what he's gonna do after the office's over, but I don't think many people know those plans, if anyone. If the next parliamentary elections were held within the prescribed constitutional deadline, i.e. 4 years from now, it can be assumed that disintegration processes could happen in the PiS. any environments or factions may effort to go their own way. I don't think it's a good time to cut off coupons after the presidency. Duda is not a strong leader. After all, he became a candidate of the PiS for the office of president due to the fact that he avoided conflicts and did not bother anyone. All this means that there is no alternate to Jarosław Kaczyński in the Law and Justice, but this cannot last forever, even due to the fact that the president is already 74 years old and increasing wellness problems.
[INFLUENCE] Andrzej Duda besides signed a coalition agreement from habit. pic.twitter.com/DYzopvyubX
— Tygodnik NO (@TygodnikNIE) November 10, 2023
– Nothing like power. But the painful coalition is very divided ideologically.
– It is clear that there must be a conflict between the coalitions sooner or later. Both Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk can destruct interior competition. That is why there are many Members in the Civic Coalition and even the Platform themselves who do not like Tusk, but are either afraid of him or sit quietly so that they do not lose their jobs. any of these politicians even suppressed their reluctance and “believe” that their leader works for their well-being. any Modern MPs besides feel pacified, but they accept it with the benefit of inventory. Szymon Hołownia will most likely want to run in the presidential election and will make a field of conflict with Rafał Trzaskowski. As long as the Holovnia community, like Modern, can be broken and absorbed by the expanded Civic Coalition, it will not be so easy for him with the Left or the PSL. Additionally, the Black and Kosiniak-Kamisha parties are very distant from each another ideologically, which is already starting to bring distant disputes, for example on the liberalisation of abortion.
– Kaczyński said he offered Kosiniak the position of Prime Minister. This 1 was expected to refuse, even though most likely no 1 would always ask him again.
– If PiS had not previously made gross mistakes in relation to PSL, specified a script would not have been excluded. If the leader of the people agreed to Kaczyński's proposal, he would lose his face in his environment. However, what is impossible present may be feasible in respective months. If there are severe tensions in the fresh government, and the Law and Justice will effort to fix their relations with the PSL, then the people can change the front. specified a field of future conflict could be presidential elections. Kosiniak- -Kamish will almost surely want to run in them, and I already mentioned that he will most likely besides run for Holovnia and possibly besides Blacksmithy. Each of them will take the votes of Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round. I don't say Tusk would be able to force his coalition to resign from moving for office as crucial to any crucial politician. Let us remember that the PSL – unlike the PiS, the Civic Coalition or the Left – is not a chief party. Kosiniak-Kamish has to deal much more with the authorities of his organization or his parliamentarians than Tusk or Kaczyński.
– Even if Duda does not take over the PiS, Kaczyński will sooner or later gotta name his successor. It utilized to seem like it might be Morawiecki, but I think he lost his chance. Błaszczak and Brudziński stay in the square, but no of them have adequate charisma and leadership skills.
– So far the most faithful of the faithful is Mariusz Błaszczak. But would he be able to handle specified a position? Of course, loyalty to the president must be a fundamental feature of specified a candidate, but the concept is very limited in politics.
In this it is embarrassing that Andrzej Duda, who for 8 years was a pusher of Kaczyński, and present he is simply a plastic in Mastalerek's hands, is inactive trying to convince us that he is giving out cards. And the Mastaler seems to be 2015 the year is the creator of the winning presidential run and... pic.twitter.com/4kFVklGCGZ
— Anna Magdalena (@IIAnnaMagdalena) November 6, 2023
– Many politicians have built their position on the political "fathericide". Adam Słomka removed his mentor Leszek Moczulski, Sławomir Mentzen – Janusz Korwin-Mikke, Donald Tusk – Bronisław Geremek, Włodzimierz Czarzasta – Leszek Miller, etc., etc.. specified an assassination does not endanger Kaczyński. Now there is simply a rumor that the president in the presidential election wants to bet on the little-known young uncompromised, educated politicians of the measure: Kacpra Plażyński or Tobias Bocheński (Mazovian Voivodeship). With Andrzej Duda, this thought worked, but I don't think it's suitable to find a fresh leader of the party.
– Kacprem Płażyński is not only a talker of his intellectual qualities, tranquility, culture and self-control, but besides a legend related to his father who died in Smolensk, he was the talker of the Sejm of the Civic Platform. Margaret Wassermann would besides be specified a good candidate for President, but I think she lacks adequate determination. Politics is simply a dynamic process, and I am certain that in a year and a half there will be respective young capable politicians, whose names we do not really know today, or we do not take them seriously. specified an influence on the right-hand individual can become Dariusz Matecki (Anniversary 1989) from Sovereign Poland. The Zbigniew Ziobry organization maintained its state of possession, which means that it is stronger in the current conditions than it was in the erstwhile term. Whatever we think of the Ziebra party, for so many years the PiS - he did not manage to "eat" it like the erstwhile appetizers. Marshal Sr can go far away.
Conversation with prof. WALDEMAR GONTARSKI, attorney, erstwhile Polish lawyer before the Court of Justice of the European Union
– The opposition centered around Donald Tusk criticizes the president for extending the procedures for establishing a fresh government. According to them, Andrzej Duda should immediately entrust the mission of creating the government to Donald Tusk.
– The mode of setting up a fresh government is defined not even in the bill, but in the Constitution. Therefore, it is unjustified to force the president to shorten any deadlines, especially as it is an exclusive competence, or prerogative, of the head of state. No 1 has the right to instruct the president on how to exercise his constitutional prerogatives. Since the adoption of the current constitution, the constitutional customized has been that a typical of the organization who has obtained the most parliamentary mandates is given to the government. The crucial thing is that what the president is doing is consistent with the constitution. I am convinced that if the president were Rafał Trzaskowski or another opposition politician, he would do the same as Andrzej Duda, or prudently.
– And the argument that Mateusz Morawiecki has no chance of forming a government is not convincing you?
– I'm convinced by the constitution, not the political shortcut. present it may seem to us that Mateusz Morawiecki has no chance, but in politics these things have not happened. As a longtime seismic expert, I have seen many. Let me remind you that Prime Minister Jan Olszewski could initially number on only 114 MPs, but he created a government and remained in power for six months. The government of Prime Minister Hanna Suchocka fell with 1 voice, as a Member, an attorney, locked himself in the toilet. Politics is simply a dynamic process, not a static process, and virtually many things can happen overnight that we could not predict. Each associate has a free mandate and is not legally bound by organization discipline. It may so turn out that Members will vote differently from their membership of the group from which they were elected to the Sejm, both in the case of the Law and the opposition.
It was expected to be 100 specifics, and it ended with 24 generals. The platform sets the others at angles. This is not the announcement of a coalition of equal partners who have a imagination and know how to respond to the challenges facing Poland.
— Mateusz Morawiecki (@MorawieckiM) November 10, 2023
– Clearly, the United Right seeks to stay in power as long as possible. Therefore, I am amazed that the president has entrusted the post of elder marshal Mark Sawicki of PSL, who is not a associate of the oldest age. If he had appointed individual from the PiS, he could have suspended the session of the Sejm and headed in an unknown direction for a fewer weeks, which would prolong the formation of the government.
– (Laughter) Theoretically, this anticipation does exist. The first sitting of the recently elected Sejm is opened by a elder marshal appointed by the president from the oldest age of Members, and it does not should be the oldest Member. In addition, the elder Marshal performs a parliamentary pledge by all Members and the election of the talker of the Sejm. But erstwhile we consider the anticipation of going distant purely theoretically or more for fun, of course the consequences of this would be very negative for the United Right. Of course, in the case of Mark Sawicki, we're not in any danger. I've known a elder marshal for many years. erstwhile he was Minister of Agriculture, I was even his social advisor. He's an efficient, honest and very experienced politician. From the point of view of the democracy referred to in the Constitution, this choice seems to be the best.
