The night of the Iranian attack on Israel, during which hundreds of drones and rockets were launched towards the judaic state, kept the full planet under tension. Although the impact scale was unprecedented, its effects proved minimal, prompting experts to profoundly analyse Tehran's intentions and possible further scenarios. Dr Wojciech Szewko, expert on global relations with Collegium Civitas, in an interview with Polsat News he calmed fears of the outbreak of planet War, identifying Iranian retaliation as carefully calculated and mostly "symbolic". However, he stressed that the region is on the brink, and the future of the mediate East now depends on 1 crucial decision to be taken in Tel Aviv with a careful look at Washington.
Iranian Retaliation: The scale of the attack and its actual effects
Before we proceed to analysis, it is worth recalling the facts. According to data provided by Israeli officials, in an about five-hour attack Iran He fired together. 185 drones, 36 manoeuvring missiles and 110 earth-to-earth missiles. Despite specified a massive impact, the Israeli defence Force (IDF) reported insignificant damage. The authoritative communication states that "the IDF air defence strategy together with Israel's strategical allies effectively captured most of the missiles fired".
The vast majority of drones and missiles were shot down before reaching Israeli airspace, mainly thanks to the engagement of American and British forces present in the region. Only “a tiny number of hits” were found, including the military base in the south Israelwhere only ‘small infrastructure damage’ has been reported. This consequence of the operation raises the question: was Iran's goal truly a powerful blow or alternatively to send a precise political signal?
High stakes game: Analysis of Dr. Wojciech Szewko
According to Dr. Wojciech SzewkoThe answer is clear. "This is definitely an exaggeration, everyone expected this retaliation to take place in a symbolic way and it was of a character," said the expert. In his opinion, the main nonsubjective Tehran There was a demonstration of 2 things. First, show your own society that the attack Israel on the Iranian consulate in Damascusin which the high-ranking Al-Kuds brigade commander was killed, Reza Zahedi, he was not left unanswered. Secondly, sending a clear message to Israel and the world: Iran has the means to precisely destruct the territory of its top enemy.
"Iran has shown that he can, but surely does not want to escalate further," he explained Dr. Szewko. This is confirmed by a message from the Iranian mission to UN, issued just after the attack, stating that "the case can be deemed to have been concluded". At the same time, it contains a hard warning: "If the Israeli government makes another mistake, Iran's consequence will be much more severe". It's a clear signal that the ball is now on the Israeli side.
What will Israel do? U.S. impact test
The key question that all analysts are now asking themselves is: what will the government of Benjamin Netanyahu do? Dr. Szewko sees this situation as a decisive minute for Israeli-American relations. “This will be a perfect test of how much USA are able to influence their ally, and to what degree they are a inexpensive supplier of arms and money to the Israeli government," the expert said.
The Americans have clearly declared that they do not want further escalation. president Joe Biden publically stressed America's "iron" commitment to safety Israel, but as the Axios portal stated, in a private conversation with Netanjahu was to make clear that United States They will argue any Israeli counterattack on Iran. akin calls for deescalation were made NATORussia and China. Neither do the key arabian states in the region that have no interest in war.
Escalation scripts: From the Strait of Ormuz to the full War
If Israel ignore allied calls and decide to strike back, must number on a consequence that – as announced Iran It won't be symbolic anymore. Dr. Szewko indicates that 1 of the most powerful tools in Tehran's hands is the anticipation Ormuz Strait Block. It is simply a key maritime way through which a crucial part of planet oil is transported. Its closure would trigger a global energy crisis, hitting economies around the world, including USA.
The darkest script the expert mentioned was a full war in which Lebanese would actively engage on Iran's side Hezbollah. "I'm talking about a war he's going to commit to besides Hezbollah"where tens of thousands of rockets will be launched," he noted Dr. Szewko. In specified a situation Israel he would gotta defend himself against massive and prolonged fire from respective fronts simultaneously – Iran, Lebanon and possibly Syria. According to the expert, in specified a conflict, Israeli air defence systems, despite their advancement, could simply deficiency interceptive measures.
Nuclear shadow over the region: Tel Aviv's actual fear
But in the background of all conventional scenarios is the top existential fear Israel - Iranian atomic program. Dr. Szewko recalled worrying data International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to reports from 3 months ago, Iran has already had adequate enriched uranium to produce fissile material per period five atomic bombs.
Although it is not certain that Tehran made the decision to build the warheads, the possible itself is for Israel It's unacceptable. "If respective rockets had penetrated Israel's defence system, if 1 of them carried an atomic warhead, we would have been in a completely different situation," he concluded. Dr. Szewko, at the heart of Israeli concerns. The fear of atomic Iran has been shaping a safety strategy for years. Israel and may be a decisive origin that will influence his final decision to respond to the last attack. The planet holds its breath, observing whether diplomacy and strategical calculation will prevail over the desire to retaliate.
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